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INTRODUCTION: Climate change is a global phenomenon with far-reaching consequences, and its impact on human health is a growing concern. The intricate interplay of various factors makes it challenging to accurately predict and understand the implications of climate change on human well-being. Conventional methodologies have limitations in comprehensively addressing the complexity and nonlinearity inherent in the relationships between climate change and health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective of this paper is to develop a robust theoretical framework that can effectively analyze and interpret the intricate web of variables influencing the human health impacts of climate change. By doing so, we aim to overcome the limitations of conventional approaches and provide a more nuanced understanding of the complex relationships involved. Furthermore, we seek to explore practical applications of this theoretical framework to enhance our ability to predict, mitigate, and adapt to the diverse health challenges posed by a changing climate. METHODS: Addressing the challenges outlined in the objectives, this study introduces the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework, acknowledging its significance in capturing the nuanced dynamics of health effects linked to climate change. The research utilizes a blend of field observations, expert interviews, key informant interviews, and an extensive literature review to shape the development of the CAS framework. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The proposed CAS framework categorizes findings into six key sub-systems: ecological services, extreme weather, infectious diseases, food security, disaster risk management, and clinical public health. The study employs agent-based modeling, using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) tailored for each CAS sub-system. A set of identified variables is incorporated into predictive modeling to enhance the understanding of health outcomes within the CAS framework. Through a combination of theoretical development and practical application, this paper aspires to contribute valuable insights to the interdisciplinary field of climate change and health. Integrating agent-based modeling and CLDs enhances the predictive capabilities required for effective health outcome analysis in the context of climate change. CONCLUSION: This paper serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, and public health professionals by employing a CAS framework to understand and assess the complex network of health impacts associated with climate change. It offers insights into effective strategies for safeguarding human health amidst current and future climate challenges.

One of Californias most pressing social and environmental challenges is the rapid expansion of the wildlands-urban interface (WUI). Multiple issues associated with WUI growth compared to more dense and compact urban form are of concern-including greatly increased fire risk, greenhouse gas emissions, and fragmentation of habitat. However, little is understood about the factors driving this growth in the first place and, specifically, its relationship to urban-regional housing dynamics. This paper connects work in urban social science, urban and regional planning, and natural sciences to highlight the potential role of housing crises in driving displacement from the urban core to relatively more affordable exurbs, and with this, WUI growth. We analyze this relationship in California, which leads the nation in lack of affordable housing, scale of WUI growth, and many associated WUI hazards, including wildfire. We offer three related arguments: first, that Californias affordable housing crisis, with its effect of driving migration to exurban areas, should be recognized as a significant urban form-related sustainability challenge; second, that to understand this challenge scholars must expand the spatial scale and analytic toolkit of both urban and WUI analysis through relational, mixed methods research; and third, that political and programmatic efforts to address Californias housing crisis should undergird efforts to address WUI growth and climate change. Ultimately, we argue that expanding access to affordable urban housing can produce a more sustainable and just urban form that mitigates WUI-related climate and environmental impacts and reduces the vulnerability of growing numbers of WUI residents living in harms way.

Climate change is driving a rapid but highly variable redistribution of life on Earth, comparable in scale and magnitude to changes historically only seen over tens of thousands of years. Despite increased research effort, the complex mechanisms driving these changes in geographical distribution of species, or ‘range shifts’, remain only superficially understood. Attempts to understand the processes underpinning species responses are hampered by the paucity of comprehensive, longterm datasets, few theoretical frameworks, and lack of strategic direction and cross-fertilisation with related ecological fields. As an emerging, dynamic field, range shift ecology would benefit from integrating concepts and approaches from other related, more established areas of research, such as invasion ecology. Here, we use a systematic literature review and bibliographic analysis to assess the level of knowledge exchange between range shift ecology and invasion ecology. We found that while the two fields are inherently strongly related, the level of exchange and integration of ideas via citation networks does not reflect the closeness of the fields in terms of concepts, theories, and practice. Although range shift papers cite invasion papers more often than vice versa, the citation rate is generally quite low for both. These findings are evidence of the increasing need to move away from discipline-focused interpretation and communication of scientific results, towards greater research integration and connection between related ecological fields. Increased knowledge and data exchange between range shift and invasion fields could improve mechanistic understanding of range shifts and species invasions under climate change, enhance the predictive capacity of models and better inform management and conservation efforts.

Among the essential tools to address global environmental information requirements are the Earth-Observing (EO) satellites with free and open data access. This paper reviews those EO satellites from international space programs that already, or will in the next decade or so, provide essential data of importance to the environmental sciences that describe Earths status. We summarize factors distinguishing those pioneering satellites placed in space over the past half century, and their links to modern ones, and the changing priorities for spaceborne instruments and platforms. We illustrate the broad sweep of instrument technologies useful for observing different aspects of the physio-biological aspects of the Earths surface, spanning wavelengths from the UV-A at 380 nanometers to microwave and radar out to 1 m. We provide a background on the technical specifications of each mission and its primary instrument(s), the types of data collected, and examples of applications that illustrate these observations. We provide websites for additional mission details of each instrument, the history or context behind their measurements, and additional details about their instrument design, specifications, and measurements.

This paper proposes a simple two-step estimation method (Climate Adaptive Response Estimation - CARE) to estimate sectoral climate damage functions, which account for long-run adaptation. The paper applies this method in the context of residential electricity and natural gas demand for the world's fifth largest economy — California. The advantage of the proposed method is that it only requires detailed information on intensive margin behavior, yet does not require explicit knowledge of the extensive margin response (e.g., technology adoption). Using almost two billion energy bills, we estimate spatially highly disaggregated intensive margin temperature response functions using daily variation in weather. In a second step, we explain variation in the slopes of the dose response functions across space as a function of summer climate. Using 18 climate models, we simulate future demand by letting households vary consumption along the intensive and extensive margins. We show that failing to account for extensive margin adjustment in electricity demand leads to a significant underestimate of the future impacts on electricity consumption. We further show that reductions in natural gas demand more than offset any climate-driven increases in electricity consumption in this context.

Abstract: Background: Contemporary and projected shifts in global fire regimes highlight the importance of understanding how fire affects ecosystem function and biodiversity across taxa and geographies. Pyrodiversity, or heterogeneity in fire history, is often an important driver of biodiversity, though it has been largely overlooked until relatively recently. In this paper, we synthesise previous research to develop a theoretical framework on pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships and propose future research and conservation management directions. Theoretical Framework: Pyrodiversity may affect biodiversity by diversifying available ecological niches, stabilising community networks and/or supporting diverse species pools available for post‐fire colonisation. Further, pyrodiversity's effects on biodiversity vary across different spatial, temporal and organismal scales depending on the mobility and other life history traits of the organisms in question and may be mediated by regional eco‐evolutionary factors such as historical fire regimes. Developing a generalisable understanding of pyrodiversity effects on biodiversity has been challenging, in part because pyrodiversity can be quantified in various ways. Applying the Pyrodiversity Concept: Exclusion of Indigenous fire stewardship, fire suppression, increased unplanned ignitions and climate change have led to dramatic shifts in fire regimes globally. Such shifts include departures from historic levels of pyrodiversity and add to existing challenges to biodiversity conservation in fire‐prone landscapes. Managers navigating these challenges can be aided by targeted research into observed contemporary pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships as well as knowledge of historical reference conditions informed by both Indigenous and local ecological knowledge and western science. Future Research Directions: Several promising avenues exist for the advancement of pyrodiversity science to further both theoretical and practical goals. These lines of investigation include but are not limited to (1) testing the increasing variety of pyrodiversity metrics and analytical approaches; (2) assessing the spatial and temporal scale‐dependence of pyrodiversity's influence; (3) reconstructing historical pyrodiversity patterns and developing methods for predicting and/or promoting future pyrodiversity; and (4) expanding the focus of pyrodiversity science beyond biodiversity to better understand its influence on ecosystem function and processes more broadly.

I examined how Pacific Islander communities are experiencing and responding to climate change, and the future of the region as a whole. For this paper, I conducted research on climate change, Pacific Islander communities, and predictions, alongside the cultural, social, economic, and political responses. Pacific Islander communities are experiencing the negative effects of climate change, and their responses—while adaptive—are often constrained due to their geography (Barnett, & Campbell, 2010). The future is full of negative effects, but the extent of the damages remains a subject of debate, with both pessimistic and optimistic perspectives. In conclusion, climate change has negative impacts on Pacific Islander communities, and this continued trend and its outcomes will persist and be determined by our actions today (Campbell, 2010). These vulnerable populations are at risk due to climate change, which makes it even more important to address the impacts in order to assist them.

INTRODUCTION: The global human population is still growing such that our collective enterprise is driving environmental catastrophe. Despite a decline in average population growth rate, we are still experiencing the highest annual increase of global human population size in the history of our species-averaging an additional 84 million people per year since 1990. No review to date has accumulated the available evidence describing the associations between increasing population and environmental decline, nor solutions for mitigating the problems arising. METHODS: We summarize the available evidence of the relationships between human population size and growth and environmental integrity, human prosperity and wellbeing, and climate change. We used PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science to identify all relevant peer-reviewed and gray-literature sources examining the consequences of human population size and growth on the biosphere. We reviewed papers describing and quantifying the risks associated with population growth, especially relating to climate change. RESULTS: These risks are global in scale, such as greenhouse-gas emissions, climate disruption, pollution, loss of biodiversity, and spread of disease-all potentially catastrophic for human standards of living, health, and general wellbeing. The trends increasing the risks of global population growth are country development, demographics, maternal education, access to family planning, and child and maternal health. CONCLUSION: Support for nations still going through a demographic transition is required to ensure progress occurs within planetary boundaries and promotes equity and human rights. Ensuring the wellbeing for all under this aim itself will lower population growth and further promote environmental sustainability.

The global food system must address food insecurity and malnutrition in a way that aligns with the urgent need to decarbonize and mitigate the release of short-lived climate pollutants. Mitigation of emission sources, supporting CO2 sinks, and increasing access to resilient crop yields, especially among disadvantaged communities, must be prioritized. San Diego County is uniquely positioned to multi-solve this dynamic problem at hand and serve as a model for building an equitable, climate resilient food system that actively mitigates and sequesters CO2 while alleviating food insecurity on a large scale.This paper assesses the food security and carbon sequestration potential of converting publicly owned open space to regenerative agricultural sites among San Diego County’s 15 municipalities routinely evaluated by the Climate Action Campaign’s Annual Report Card, including Carlsbad, the City of San Diego, Chula Vista, Coronado, Del Mar, Encinitas, Escondido, Imperial Beach, La Mesa, Lemon Grove, National City, Oceanside, San Marcos, Solana Beach, and Vista. To conduct this analysis, a modifiable, replicable, geospatial model was built in ArcGIS Pro to identify eligible open space with key criteria to prioritize equity and suitable environmental features. As identified by this model, if 5,652 acres of eligible open space were converted to productive regenerative agricultural sites across the aforementioned 15 municipalities, an estimated annual 182.75 million pounds of crops could directly provide 152.29 million meals, closing San Diego County’s meal gap by 94%, while sequestering approximately 4,060 MTCO2 each year. This paper offers scaled-down food security and carbon sequestration benefits by municipality and concludes with project implementation strategy recommendations.

The urban energy infrastructure is facing a rising number of challenges due to climate change and rapid urbanization. In particular, the link between urban morphology and energy systems has become increasingly crucial as cities continue to expand and become more densely populated. Achieving climate neutrality adds another layer of complexity, highlighting the need to address this relationship to develop effective strategies for sustainable urban energy infrastructure. The occurrence of extreme climate events can also trigger cascading failures in the system components, leading to long-lasting blackouts. This review paper thoroughly explores the challenges of incorporating urban morphology into energy system models through a comprehensive literature review and proposes a new framework to enhance the resilience of interconnected systems. The review emphasizes the need for integrated models to provide deeper insights into urban energy systems design and operation and addresses the cascading failures, interconnectivity, and compound impacts of climate change and urbanization on energy systems. It also explores emerging challenges and opportunities, including the requirement for high-quality data, utilization of big data, and integration of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning in urban energy systems. The proposed framework integrates urban morphology classification, mesoscale and microscale climate data, and a design and operation process to consider the influence of urban morphology, climate variability, and extreme events. Given the prevalence of extreme climate events and the need for climate-resilient strategies, the study underscores the significance of improving energy system models to accommodate future climate variations while recognizing the interconnectivity within urban infrastructure.

The issue of climate change is persistent, and its effects on the general population as a whole are imminent.  Climate change affects everything, from our health, to economies, and even the way we live together as a society.  The paper outlines the profound, yet intricate impacts that climate change has brought upon healthcare, highlighting the challenges faced by individuals living with these rapid environmental shifts.  It goes into detail in regards to the mental and physical health implications, the disproportionate effects on the most vulnerable communities, and the overall increasing pressure building on these healthcare industries.  Urgent and adaptive strategies are a necessity for healthcare to effectively combat climate change and its impact on the world as a whole.

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex ways that are difficult to predict. Coordinated long-term research and analysis are required to assess how these changes will affect a diverse array of ecosystem services. This paper is part of a series that is a product of a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network. This effort revealed that each LTER site had at least one compelling scientific case study about “what their site would look like” in 50 or 100 yr. As the site results were prepared, themes emerged, and the case studies were grouped into separate papers along five themes: state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects and compiled into this special issue. This paper addresses the time lags theme with five examples from diverse biomes including tundra (Arctic), coastal upwelling (California Current Ecosystem), montane forests (Coweeta), and Everglades freshwater and coastal wetlands (Florida Coastal Everglades) LTER sites. Its objective is to demonstrate the importance of different types of time lags, in different kinds of ecosystems, as drivers of ecosystem structure and function and how these can effectively be addressed with long-term studies. The concept that slow, interactive, compounded changes can have dramatic effects on ecosystem structure, function, services, and future scenarios is apparent in many systems, but they are difficult to quantify and predict. The case studies presented here illustrate the expanding scope of thinking about time lags within the LTER network and beyond. Specifically, they examine what variables are best indicators of lagged changes in arctic tundra, how progressive ocean warming can have profound effects on zooplankton and phytoplankton in waters off the California coast, how a series of species changes over many decades can affect Eastern deciduous forests, and how infrequent, extreme cold spells and storms can have enduring effects on fish populations and wetland vegetation along the Southeast coast and the Gulf of Mexico. The case studies highlight the need for a diverse set of LTER (and other research networks) sites to sort out the multiple components of time lag effects in ecosystems.

Active transportation (AT) is widely viewed as an important target for increasing participation in aerobic physical activity and improving health, while simultaneously addressing pollution and climate change through reductions in motor vehicular emissions. In recent years, progress in increasing AT has stalled in some countries and, furthermore, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has created new AT opportunities while also exposing the barriers and health inequities related to AT for some populations. This paper describes the results of the December 2019 Conference on Health and Active Transportation (CHAT) which brought together leaders from the transportation and health disciplines. Attendees charted a course for the future around three themes: Reflecting on Innovative Practices, Building Strategic Institutional Relationships, and Identifying Research Needs and Opportunities. This paper focuses on conclusions of the Research Needs and Opportunities theme. We present a conceptual model derived from the conference sessions that considers how economic and systems analysis, evaluation of emerging technologies and policies, efforts to address inclusivity, disparities and equity along with renewed attention to messaging and communication could contribute to overcoming barriers to development and use of AT infrastructure. Specific research gaps concerning these themes are presented. We further discuss the relevance of these themes considering the pandemic. Renewed efforts at research, dissemination and implementation are needed to achieve the potential health and environmental benefits of AT and to preserve positive changes associated with the pandemic while mitigating negative ones.

Climate change risk has become an important challenge for global sustainable development. The insurance industry can play an important role in coping with the increasingly severe climate change risk. This paper first describes the increasing climate change risk and the difficulties of the insurance mechanism in dealing with it. Then this paper summarizes the international practice of using the insurance mechanism to deal with climate change risk from ten different aspects. Based on the summary of the role of the insurance mechanism in dealing with this risk in developing countries, this paper puts forward the main application areas for climate change risk insurance and discusses the policy implications of developing climate change risk insurance in China.

Inclusion of dispersal data in models of species’ distributions in response to environmental change has been advocated for more than 15 years. We investigated whether there has been a shift in recent publications to include dispersal processes and how dispersal estimates explicitly change the conclusions of analyses. To address this question, we conducted a systemic review of the literature to assess what kinds of dispersal data and methods are being included in species distribution models across taxa. We collected metadata on 6,406 publications, 907 of which included dispersal data. The proportion of papers that included dispersal data in estimates of the species’ range increased from 8% to 20% from 1991 to 2017. Evaluation of a subsample of 200 papers showed no evidence for differences in taxa studied between dispersal and non-dispersal publications, with most studies focused on North America or Europe. Dispersal was incorporated at a higher frequency in studies from South America, Africa, and island systems. We found that forecasting models predicting range shifts with climate change rarely used dispersal data, but when they did, range shift projections were greatly affected. Our simulation models, in which a range of dispersal estimates were included, showed that projections were greatly influenced by dispersal distance assumptions. We summarize best practices for future research on distributions, including potential methodologies for dispersal integration and highlight the problems if dispersal is ignored.

“Do it for the kids,” cry climate activists, in an appeal to intergenerational responsibility. Climate change fictions make similar emotional appeals to their audiences by centering their plots around a family struggling to beat the odds of the Anthropocene. Electing the nuclear family as the genre standard reinforces heteronormativity, relies on the misleading catharsis of the “child savior” figure, and furthers procreational narratives. To examine the norms of the family in Cli-fi, this paper examines two popular short stories, “Quiet Town” by Jason Gurley and “The Smog Society” by Chen Qiufan and two Climate Disaster films, 2012 (2009) and The Day After Tomorrow (2004 dir. Roland Emmerich). To contextualize my exploration of such tropes, I consulted theory across multiple relevant disciplines: particularly, Edelman’s Queer theory of reproductive futurism and James Hughes’ work on Sociological Biopolitics informed my analysis. Close reading analyses found that even as Cli-fi work blocked the agency of children they also placed upon them the responsibility of maintaining and perpetuating generational and heteronormative tradition. Times of crisis within the story were mirrored by the destruction of the nuclear family, and times of environmental sustainability were signaled by the nuclear family. With this paper I hope to encourage further research into the emerging genre of Cli-Fi and the norms of gender enshrined within it.

In this paper, we developed an open-source package to analyze the overall trend and responses of both carbon use efficiency (CUE) and corn yield to climate factors for the contiguous United States. Our algorithm enables automatic retrieval of remote sensing data through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) agricultural production data at the county level through application programming interface (API). Firstly, we integrated satellite products of net primary productivity and gross primary productivity based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, and climatic variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Secondly, we calculated CUE and commonly used climate metrics. Thirdly, we investigated the spatial heterogeneity of these variables. We applied a random forest algorithm to identify the key climate drivers of CUE and crop yield, and estimated the responses of CUE and yield to climate variability using the spatial moving window regression across the U.S. Our results show that growing degree days (GDD) has the highest predictive power for both CUE and yield, while extreme degree days (EDD) is the least important explanatory variable. Moreover, we observed that in most areas of the U.S., yield increases or stays the same with higher GDD and precipitation. However, CUE decreases with higher GDD in the north and shows more mixed and fragmented interactions in the south. Notably, there are some exceptions where yield is negatively correlated with precipitation in the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. As global warming continues, we anticipate a decrease in CUE throughout the vast northern part of the country, despite the possibility of yield remaining stable or increasing.

For decades, activists, organizers, and scientists across the Global South have warned about the pronounced impacts of the climate crisis on their countries, communities, and ecosystems, and have done so while working tirelessly to develop resilience against such impacts. This is especially true for the African continent, which has contributed the least to the climate crisis, is among the most impacted by the climate crisis, and has given rise to demonstrably robust and far-reaching strategies for climate resilience.In our research for this paper, we focus on how African climate, agri-food, and environmental organizations are combating the drivers of the climate crisis, managing the impacts of the climate crisis, and forging strategies to build climate resilience. We do so to help ensure that efforts to support climate justice in Africa are accountable to the objectives, strategies, and activities of African organizations and African peoples themselves, and to build robust and impactful relationships with African organizations.

Biotechnology has a high potential to substantially contribute to a low-carbon society. Several green processes are already well established, utilizing the unique capacity of living cells or their instruments. Beyond that, the authors believe that there are new biotechnological procedures in the pipeline which have the momentum to add to this ongoing change in our economy. Eight promising biotechnology tools were selected by the authors as potentially impactful game changers: (i) the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway, (ii) carbonic anhydrase, (iii) cutinase, (iv) methanogens, (v) electro-microbiology, (vi) hydrogenase, (vii) cellulosome and, (viii) nitrogenase. Some of them are fairly new and are explored predominantly in science labs. Others have been around for decades, however, with new scientific groundwork that may rigorously expand their roles. In the current paper, the authors summarize the latest state of research on these eight selected tools and the status of their practical implementation. We bring forward our arguments on why we consider these processes real game changers.

This paper reviews theoretical and empirical approaches drawn from influential journal articles and books on sustainability policy published over the last 10 years (2007 through 2017). Due to the widespread application of sustainability as a concept and space limitations, the paper more narrowly focuses on sustainability research in three critical policy areas: climate change, urban development, and agroecology and food systems. Drawing from information provided primarily by citation indexes, the study identifies and analyzes the research literature related to sustainability in these three fields. Future theoretical and empirical research approaches that can better integrate and connect the current diffuse and incongruent literature on sustainability are discussed in the paper. The findings of the literature review generate a number of possible future research directions that are discussed in the study.

California has a range of existing and proposed targets toward a low carbon future. This paper summarizes an analytical review, focused on modeling approaches and what is known about their feasibility and cost. The findings in this paper are based on the Climate Change Policy Modeling (CCPM) forum, which included modelers, policy makers and stakeholders evaluating targets and pathways to low-carbon futures and identifying required policies to achieve goals. The third forum, CCPM-3, was on May 14th, 2018, at the University of California, Davis and provided critical discussion and a gathering of the key experts in this topic area This report builds on the findings of CCPM and integrates with other literature where possible. It includes a review of the CO2-relevant targets, discussion of studies and modeling efforts to assess meeting such targets, including feasibility and cost. This includes analysis in the transportation and energy sectors, as well as land use and carbon sequestration.

Monkeypox 2022, a zoonotic virus similar to smallpox, presented as a rapidly escalating human outbreak with community transmission outside endemic regions of Africa. In just over one month of detection, confirmed cases escalated to over 3300, with reports of patients in at least 43 non-African nations. Mechanisms of transmission in animals and the reservoir host remain uncertain; spread from humans to wild or domestic animals risks the creation of new endemic zones. While initial cases were reported in men who have sex with men (MSM), monkeypox is not considered a sexually transmitted infection. Anyone with close contact with an infected person, aerosolized infectious material (e.g., from shaken bedsheets), or contact with fomites or infected animals is at risk. In humans, monkeypox typically presents with a non-specific prodromal phase followed by a classic rash with an incubation period of 5-21 days (usually 6-13 days). The prodrome may be subclinical, and the monkeypox virus may be transmissible from person-to-person before observed symptom onset. Most clinicians are unfamiliar with monkeypox. Information is rapidly evolving, producing an urgent need for immediate access to clear, concise, fact-based, and actionable information for frontline healthcare workers in prehospital, emergency departments/hospitals, and acute care/sexual transmitted infection clinics. This paper provides a novel Identify-Isolate-Inform (3I) Tool for the early detection and management of patients under investigation for monkeypox 2022. Patients are identified as potentially exposed or infected after an initial assessment of risk factors and signs/symptoms. Management of exposed patients includes consideration of quarantine and post-exposure prophylaxis with a smallpox vaccine. For infectious patients, providers must immediately don personal protective equipment and isolate patients. Healthcare workers must report suspected and confirmed cases in humans or animals to public health authorities. This innovative 3I Tool will assist emergency, primary care, and prehospital clinicians in effectively managing persons with suspected or confirmed monkeypox.

In climate science and applications, the term “metric” is used to describe the distillation of complex, multifaceted evaluations to summarize the overall quality of a model simulation, or other data product, and/or as a means to quantify some response to climate change. Metrics provide insights into the fidelity of processes and outcomes from climate models and can assist with both differentiating models' representation of variables or processes and informing whether models are “fit for purpose.” Metrics can also provide a valuable reference point for co-production of knowledge between climate scientists and climate impact practitioners. Although continued metric developments enable model developers to better understand the impacts of decisions made in the model design process, metrics also have implications for the characterization of uncertainty and facilitating analyses of underlying physical processes. As a result, comprehensive evaluation with multiple metrics enhances usability of climate information by both scientific and stakeholder communities. This paper presents examples of insights gained from the development and appropriate use of metrics, and provides examples of how metrics can be used to engage with stakeholders and inform decision-making. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models The Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change.

AbstractOxygen bioavailability is declining in aquatic systems worldwide as a result of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. For aquatic organisms, the consequences are poorly known but are likely to reflect both direct effects of declining oxygen bioavailability and interactions between oxygen and other stressors, including two-warming and acidification-that have received substantial attention in recent decades and that typically accompany oxygen changes. Drawing on the collected papers in this symposium volume ("An Oxygen Perspective on Climate Change"), we outline the causes and consequences of declining oxygen bioavailability. First, we discuss the scope of natural and predicted anthropogenic changes in aquatic oxygen levels. Although modern organisms are the result of long evolutionary histories during which they were exposed to natural oxygen regimes, anthropogenic change is now exposing them to more extreme conditions and novel combinations of low oxygen with other stressors. Second, we identify behavioral and physiological mechanisms that underlie the interactive effects of oxygen with other stressors, and we assess the range of potential organismal responses to oxygen limitation that occur across levels of biological organization and over multiple timescales. We argue that metabolism and energetics provide a powerful and unifying framework for understanding organism-oxygen interactions. Third, we conclude by outlining a set of approaches for maximizing the effectiveness of future work, including focusing on long-term experiments using biologically realistic variation in experimental factors and taking truly cross-disciplinary and integrative approaches to understanding and predicting future effects.

California has established itself as a leader in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. However, the state has not reflected its ambitious policies for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and climate action in its practices for allocating state transportation funding. This paper reviews the complex systems through which California generates and allocates state revenue for transportation investment. It finds that the state’s framework for funding transportation projects and programs is disconnected from its GHG goals, reflective more of historical political deals than of contemporary climate policy. The paper also suggests preliminary steps for revising this framework to reinforce GHG reduction goals. Such recommendations are particularly salient given the state’s recently completed study of road user charges as an alternative transportation revenue source, as well as the passage of new legislation that restructures the state’s fuel taxes (Senate Bill 1, 2017). Implementation of road charges or any other new or revised transportation revenue source would need to address the disposition of revenues generated. This paper argues that California should use any such opportunity to align the distribution of state transportation dollars with its climate objectives, not fall back on status quo allocation prac-tices.

California has established itself as a leader in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. At the same time, the state has not reflected its ambitious policies for GHG reduction and climate action in its practices for allocating state transportation funding. This white paper reviews the complex systems through which California generates and allocates state revenue for transportation investment. It finds that the state’s framework for funding transportation is disconnected from its climate goals. The paper also suggests preliminary steps for revising this framework to reinforce GHG reduction goals. Such recommendations are particularly salient given the state’s recently completed study of road user charges as an alternative transportation revenue source. Implementation of road charges – or any other new or revised transportation revenue source – would need to address the disposition of revenues generated. The paper argues that California should use any such opportunity to align the distribution of state transportation dollars with its climate objectives, not fall back on status quo allocation practices.View the NCST Project Webpage

Adapting building operation during the COVID-19 pandemic to improve indoor air quality (IAQ) while ensuring sustainable solutions in terms of costs and CO2 emissions is challenging and limited in literature. Our previous study investigated different HVAC operation strategies, including increased filtration using MERV 10, MERV 13, or HEPA filters, as well as supplying 100% outdoor air into buildings for a system initially sized for MERV 10 filtration. This paper significantly extends that research by systematically analyzing the potential financial and environmental impact for different locations in the U.S. The previous medium office building system model is improved to account for operation in different climates. New evaluation metrics are created to consider the comprehensive impact of improving IAQ on costs and CO2 emissions, using dynamic emission factors for electricity generation depending on the location. HVAC operation strategies are studied in five different locations across the United States, with distinct climates and electricity sources. In four of the five locations, MERV 13 filtration offers the best improvement in IAQ per increase in costs and emissions relative to MERV 10. The exception is the mildest climate of San Diego, where use of 100% outdoor air provides the best IAQ with a limited increase in costs and emissions. A system not sized for HEPA filtration can lead to increased costs and emissions without much improvement in IAQ.

This paper takes international climate change law norms as a given, and instead turns to their implementation in domestic courts as one of the possible enforcement strategies for advancing the protection of the climate. The enforcement of climate change law is overviewed at the international law level and portrayed in the context of domestic courts. In order to flesh out such a proposal as the latter, the viability of procedural rights, as embodied in Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration, is assessed and compared with substantive rights as a possible leverage of enforcement in the sphere of climate change law. Such leverage is pictured out within the first two judicial decisions applying international law for the protection of the climate in domestic courts, namely the Urgenda decision from the Netherlands, and the Leghari decision from Pakistan. The legacy of each of those is evaluated under the prong of judicial globalization and international climate policy.The paper argues that the interpretive techniques deployed in this strand of cases are poised to further advance international climate change law, not only on a substantive plane, but also on a procedural plane, especially with regard to the standing of individuals and NGOs. Indeed, the paper holds such a judicial turn to be a viable enforcement mechanism in the field of climate change law and policy, especially in the aftermath of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present and future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for the western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 to 2020. Among 72 forested basins across the WUS that burned between 1984 and 2019, the multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated by 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) for an average of 6 water years postfire, compared to the range of results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed by comparing prefire and postfire streamflow responses to climate and also to streamflow among 107 control basins that experienced little to no wildfire during the study period. The streamflow response scales with fire extent: among the 29 basins where >20% of forest area burned in a year, streamflow over the first 6 water years postfire increased by a multibasin average of 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire streamflow increases were significant in all four seasons. Historical fire-climate relationships combined with climate model projections suggest that 2021 to 2050 will see repeated years when climate is more fire-conducive than in 2020, the year currently holding the modern record for WUS forest area burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, but our results suggest that burned areas will grow enough over the next 3 decades to enhance streamflow at regional scales. Wildfire is an emerging driver of runoff change that will increasingly alter climate impacts on water supplies and runoff-related risks.

The Earth's mean surface temperature is already approximately 1.1°C higher than pre-industrial levels. Exceeding a mean 1.5°C rise by 2050 will make global adaptation to the consequences of climate change less possible. To protect public health, anaesthesia providers need to reduce the contribution their practice makes to global warming. We convened a Working Group of 45 anaesthesia providers with a recognised interest in sustainability, and used a three-stage modified Delphi consensus process to agree on principles of environmentally sustainable anaesthesia that are achievable worldwide. The Working Group agreed on the following three important underlying statements: patient safety should not be compromised by sustainable anaesthetic practices; high-, middle- and low-income countries should support each other appropriately in delivering sustainable healthcare (including anaesthesia); and healthcare systems should be mandated to reduce their contribution to global warming. We set out seven fundamental principles to guide anaesthesia providers in the move to environmentally sustainable practice, including: choice of medications and equipment; minimising waste and overuse of resources; and addressing environmental sustainability in anaesthetists' education, research, quality improvement and local healthcare leadership activities. These changes are achievable with minimal material resource and financial investment, and should undergo re-evaluation and updates as better evidence is published. This paper discusses each principle individually, and directs readers towards further important references.

Changing global fire regimes including extended fire seasons due to climate change may increase the co-occurrence of high-impact fires that overwhelm national fire suppression capacities. These shifts increase the demand for international resource sharing to supplement national fire suppression efforts. In this paper, we explore the development and evaluate the effectiveness of international resource sharing arrangements of three regions: (1) The United States, Canada, and Australia (“Big Three”); (2) Europe; and (3) Southeast Asia by conducting a literature review of gray and peer- reviewed literature in combination with key informant interviews. For the “Big Three” and Europe, international resource sharing is perceived as necessary, effective, and continuously improving. Converging fire management processes and training and developing more effective administrative procedures facilitate these relationships. In Southeast Asia, political tensions and limited firefighting capacities have hampered effective cooperation. Formalized agreements of country-to-country support for fire management are nascent and evolving, and there is evidence that demand for expanding and improving these partnerships is increasing.

The increasing concern about the degradation of water-dependent ecosystems calls for considering ecosystems benefits in water management decision-making. Sustainable water management requires adequate economic and biophysical information on water systems supporting both human activities and natural ecosystems. This information is essential for assessing the impact on social welfare of water allocation options. This paper evaluates various alternative water management policies by including the spatial and sectoral interrelationships between the economic and environmental uses of water. A hydroeconomic model is developed to analyze water management policies for adaptation to reduced water availability in the Ebro Basin of Spain. The originality in our contribution is the integration of environmental benefits across the basin, by using endemic biophysical information that relates stream flows and ecosystem status in the Ebro Basin. The results show the enhancement of social welfare that can be achieved by protecting environmental flows, and the tradeoffs between economic and environmental benefits under alternative adaptation strategies. The introduction of water markets is a policy that maximizes the private benefits of economic activities, but disregards environmental benefits. The results show that the current institutional policy where stakeholders cooperate inside the water authority, provides lower private benefits but higher environmental benefits compared to those obtained under water markets, especially under severe droughts. However, the water authority is not allocating enough environmental flows to optimize social welfare. This study informs strategies for protection of environmental flows in the Ebro Basin, which is a compelling decision under the imminent climate change impacts on water availability in coming decades.

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land–atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Climate adaptation is now a well-documented need in the transportation sector, and there are strong conceptual frameworks for the adaptation process. Since climate adaptation is an emerging field, the pathways for developing the skills and competencies for adaptation careers are not well established. This white paper assesses the workforce development needs and current training opportunities related to transportation-sector climate adaptation. To do so, training needs were examined and opportunities identified by state and regional transportation agencies; training needs of aspiring and early-career climate adaptation professionals were cataloged; and a scan was completed of the educational opportunities in climate adaptation currently offered by universities in the United States. There is evidence of convergence on the areas of content knowledge, technical expertise, and soft skills that form the core competencies necessary to support climate adaptation within the transportation sector. These core competencies are in climate science, adaptation strategies, communication, and selection of adaptation measures/decision making under uncertainty. While these competencies need to be broadly distributed throughout transportation agencies, the relative emphasis placed on each competency will vary across agency functions and job responsibilities. The increased value placed on adaptation-related expertise by state departments of transportation and regional transportation agencies, as well as the emergence of new educational and training opportunities in climate adaptation available in higher education and professional organizations, is indicative of the potential for rapid growth in this area.View the NCST Project Webpage

Compound climate extremes, such as events with concurrent temperature and precipitation extremes, have significant impacts on the health of humans and ecosystems. This paper aims to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of compound extremes of monthly temperature and precipitation, evaluate the performance of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in simulating compound extremes, and investigate their future changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results show a significant increase in the frequency of compound warm extremes (warm/dry and warm/wet) but a decrease in compound cold extremes (cold/dry and cold/wet) during 1985-2014 relative to 1955-1984. The observed upward trends of compound warm extremes over China are much higher than those worldwide during the period of interest. A multi-model ensemble (MME) of CMIP6 models performs well in simulating temporal changes of warm/wet extremes, and temporal correlation coefficients between MME and observations are above 0.86. Under future scenarios, CMIP6 simulations show substantial rises in compound warm extremes and declines in compound cold extremes. Globally, the average frequency of warm/wet extremes over a 30-yr period is projected to increase for 2070-2099 relative to 1985-2014 by 18.53, 34.15, 48.79, and 59.60 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Inter-model uncertainties for the frequencies of compound warm extremes are considerably higher than those of compound cold extremes. The projected uncertainties in the global occurrences of warm/wet extremes are 3.82 times those of warm/dry extremes during 2070-2099 and especially high for the Amazon and the Tibetan Plateau.

Thermal adaptation to habitat variability can determine species vulnerability to environmental change. For example, physiological tolerance to naturally low thermal variation in tropical forests species may alter their vulnerability to climate change impacts, compared with open habitat species. However, the extent to which habitat-specific differences in tolerance derive from within-generation versus across-generation ecological or evolutionary processes are not well characterized. Here we studied thermal tolerance limits of a Central African butterfly (Bicyclus dorothea) across two habitats in Cameroon: a thermally stable tropical forest and the more variable ecotone between rainforest and savanna. Second generation individuals originating from the ecotone, reared under conditions common to both populations, exhibited higher upper thermal limits (CTmax) than individuals originating from forest (∼3°C greater). Lower thermal limits (CTmin) were also slightly lower for the ecotone populations (∼1°C). Our results are suggestive of local adaptation driving habitat-specific differences in thermal tolerance (especially CTmax) that hold across generations. Such habitat-specific thermal limits may be widespread for tropical ectotherms and could affect species vulnerability to environmental change. However, microclimate and within-generation developmental processes (e.g. plasticity) will mediate these differences, and determining the fitness consequences of thermal variation for ecotone and rainforest species will require continued study of both within-generation and across-generation eco-evolutionary processes.This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper.

Thermal adaptation to habitat variability can determine species vulnerability to environmental change. For example, physiological tolerance to naturally low thermal variation in tropical forests species may alter their vulnerability to climate change impacts, compared with open habitat species. However, the extent to which habitat-specific differences in tolerance derive from within-generation versus across-generation ecological or evolutionary processes are not well characterized. Here we studied thermal tolerance limits of a Central African butterfly (Bicyclus dorothea) across two habitats in Cameroon: a thermally stable tropical forest and the more variable ecotone between rainforest and savanna. Second generation individuals originating from the ecotone, reared under conditions common to both populations, exhibited higher upper thermal limits (CTmax) than individuals originating from forest (∼3°C greater). Lower thermal limits (CTmin) were also slightly lower for the ecotone populations (∼1°C). Our results are suggestive of local adaptation driving habitat-specific differences in thermal tolerance (especially CTmax) that hold across generations. Such habitat-specific thermal limits may be widespread for tropical ectotherms and could affect species vulnerability to environmental change. However, microclimate and within-generation developmental processes (e.g. plasticity) will mediate these differences, and determining the fitness consequences of thermal variation for ecotone and rainforest species will require continued study of both within-generation and across-generation eco-evolutionary processes.This article has an associated First Person interview with the first author of the paper.

Efforts in biodiversity conservation have long embraced the task of reducing the impactsof the stressors imposed by anthropogenic and environmental changes. In the past, moststressors have been either on-going but gradual or incremental, such as pollution ordeforestation, or one-time catastrophic events, such as large oil spills, or a severe drought. Theprevailing conservation principle has been to plan for a static protected area or series of protectedareas, with the goal of preserving important specific habitat types, or biodiversity assemblages.The assumption has been that if properly protected, these ecosystems would remain stable(Hansen et al., 2009). Climate change has created new challenges in biodiversity conservation.While it is already changing ecosystems across the globe, it will continue to do so for decadesand perhaps centuries to come, and at a faster pace than originally anticipated (Hansen et al.,2009). The current pace of change is unprecedented in evolutionary history (Barnosky et al.,2003).Climate change is reshaping how we think about conservation. Even if fully protectedfrom the ongoing threats imposed by human activities, the ecosystems and biota we have beenprotecting will not remain the same. Conservation planners must change the way decisions aremade because aspects of the environment we have always considered to be relatively constant,including weather patterns, water supply, temperature extremes, even biotic communities, will bechanging. This is a difficult endeavor because, not only can we not predict exactly how thingswill change, but we don’t know when they will achieve a new stable state. We can no longerplan for stasis.With these ideas in mind, the African Wildlife Foundation and the International GorillaConservation Programme have partnered with EcoAdapt to initiate the development of anadaptation framework to address climate change in planning in the continuing efforts to conservemountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in East Africa. With a grant by the John D. andCatherine T. MacArthur Foundation, a series of Climate Camp workshops in the region wereheld and expert research commissioned to produce this initial White Paper. The work focuses onbuilding understanding and assessing the scope for reducing the vulnerability of mountaingorillas to regional and global changes expected to occur as a result of climate change. The goalis to reduce the vulnerability of mountain gorillas to the negative effects of climate change byunderstanding and accommodating its effects on their habitat, food supply, and access to waterresources. The specific task of the White Paper preparation process was to carry out initialmulti-stakeholder assessment of the implications of global climate change for mountain gorillaconservation in the Albertine Rift, and identify key elements of an adaptation framework,including priority adaptation strategies and actions.

As household incomes rise around the world and global temperatures go up, the use of air conditioning is poised to increase dramatically. Air conditioning growth is expected to be particularly strong in middle-income countries, but direct empirical evidence is scarce. In this paper we use high-quality microdata from Mexico to describe the relationship between temperature, income, and air conditioning. We describe both how electricity consumption increases with temperature given current levels of air conditioning, and how climate and income drive air conditioning adoption decisions. We then combine these estimates with predicted end-of-century temperature changes to forecast future energy consumption. Under conservative assumptions about household income, our model predicts near-universal saturation of air conditioning in all warm areas within just a few decades. Temperature increases contribute to this surge in adoption, but income growth by itself explains most of the increase. What this will mean for electricity consumption and carbon dioxide emissions depends on the pace of technological change. Continued advances in energy efficiency or the development of new cooling technologies could reduce the energy consumption impacts. Similarly, growth in low-carbon electricity generation could mitigate the increases in carbon dioxide emissions. However, the paper illustrates the enormous potential impacts in this sector, highlighting the importance of future research on adaptation and underscoring the urgent need for global action on climate change.

Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

In all likelihood, climate change will be the most challenging environmental problem that societywill face in the new century. Despite growing scientific evidence that climate change is takingplace, skepticism still exists about whether it is actually occurring and, if it is, whether increasedgreenhouse gas emissions will have a significant adverse impact on the ecosystem. Unlessdivergent actor groups are able to establish a dialogue on these issues, meaningful discussionsabout the causes and effects of climate change will not take place, government action will not beforthcoming, and additional harm to the ecosystem will occur. This, in turn, will place animpediment in front of public and private efforts to promote sustainability, making it even thatmuch more difficult to reverse course and adopt needed changes to energy production andconsumption in the future. This paper contributes to the emerging scholarly discussion aroundthe dimensions of climate change communication by conducting a stakeholder-focused analysisconcerning climate change at the local level. The paper draws upon a theoretical frameworkdeveloped by Sabatier et al. (2005) to analyze stakeholder involvement in collaborativewatershed management, and applies the framework to climate change policymaking in American cities. A major goal of the study is to assess the value of this framework for analyzing the nature and extent of interactions between the major players involved in climate change mitigation andadaptation at the local level. Developing an effective stakeholder framework can help us to understand the multifaceted stakeholder dynamics around climate change communication at the municipal level and can be a critical contribution to theory and, subsequently, to policymaking by helping decision makers become aware and knowledgeable about their constraints and opportunities in addressing climate change within the urban context. Overall, research on climate change policymaking by cities is underdeveloped, and this paper adds to this literature.

This paper reviews the literature on the relationship between climate and the energy sector. In particular, we primarily discuss empirical papers published in peer-reviewed economics journals focusing on how climate affects energy expenditures and consumption. Climate will affect energy consumption by changing how consumers respond to short run weather shocks (the intensive margin) as well as how people will adapt in the long run (the extensive margin). Along the intensive margin, further research that uses household and firm-level panel data of energy consumption may help identify how energy consumers around the world respond to weather shocks. Research on technology adoption, e.g. air conditioners, will further our understanding of the extensive margin adjustments and their costs. We also note that most of the literature focuses on the residential sector. Similar studies are urgently needed for the industrial and commercial sectors.

This paper reviews the literature on the relationship between climate and the energy sector. In particular, we primarily discuss empirical papers published in peer-reviewed economics journals focusing on how climate affects energy expenditures and consumption. Climate will affect energy consumption by changing how consumers respond to short run weather shocks (the intensive margin) as well as how people will adapt in the long run (the extensive margin). Along the intensive margin, further research that uses household and firm-level panel data of energy consumption may help identify how energy consumers around the world respond to weather shocks. Research on technology adoption, e.g. air conditioners, will further our understanding of the extensive margin adjustments and their costs. We also note that most of the literature focuses on the residential sector. Similar studies are urgently needed for the industrial and commercial sectors.

We thank the Comment's authors for their considered critique of our paper. We respond to their main criticisms and hope that this discussion motivates further consideration of communication strategies for event attribution analyses.

Climate change is rapidly modifying historic river flows and snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada in California and other seasonally snow-covered mountains. Statistical forecasting methods based on regressing summer flow against spring snow water equivalent, precipitation, and antecedent runoff are thus becoming increasingly inadequate for water-resources decision making, which can lead to missed opportunities in maximizing beneficial uses, including the value of hydropower resources. An enhanced forecasting method using a process-based model and spatially distributed wireless sensor data offers more accurate runoff forecasts. In this paper, we assessed the forecasting accuracy of these two forecasting methods by applying them to two tributaries within the North Fork Feather River basin in California. The result shows the enhanced forecasting method having better accuracy than the statistical model. In addition, a hydropower simulation showed a considerable increase in energy value with the enhanced forecasting informing reservoir operations. The investment analysis on applying this method shows an average internal rate of return of 31% across all scenarios, making this forecasting method an attractive way to better inform water-related decisions for hydropower generation in the context of climate change.