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Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ∼1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ∼1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ∼1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ∼1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Past orbital analogues to the current interglacial, such as Marine Isotope Stage 19c (MIS 19c, ca. 800 ka), can provide reliable reference intervals for evaluating the timing and the duration of the Holocene and factors inherent in its climatic progression. Here we present the first high-resolution paleoclimatic record for MIS 19 anchored to a high-precision 40Ar/39Ar chronology, thus fully independent of any a priori assumptions on the orbital mechanisms underlying the climatic changes. It is based on the oxygen isotope compositions of Italian lake sediments showing orbital- to millennial-scale hydrological variability over the Mediterranean between 810 and 750 ka. Our record indicates that the MIS 19c interglacial lasted 10.8 ± 3.7 k.y., comparable to the time elapsed since the onset of the Holocene, and that the orbital configuration at the time of the following glacial inception was very similar to the present one. By analogy, the current interglacial should be close to its end. However, greenhouse gas concentrations at the time of the MIS 19 glacial inception were significantly lower than those of the late Holocene, suggesting that the current interglacial could have already been prolonged by the progressive increase of the greenhouse gases since 8-6 ka, possibly due to early anthropogenic disturbance of vegetation.