1. Moderate- and large-deviation probabilities in actuarial risk theory
- Author
-
Craig Hoesman and Eric V. Slud
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Actuarial science ,Mathematical model ,Applied Mathematics ,010102 general mathematics ,Ruin theory ,01 natural sciences ,010104 statistics & probability ,Superposition principle ,Bounded function ,Portfolio ,Renewal theory ,0101 mathematics ,Project portfolio management ,Constant (mathematics) ,Mathematics - Abstract
A general model for the actuarial risk-reserve process as a superposition of compound delayed-renewal processes is introduced and related to previous models which have been used in collective risk theory. It is observed that non-stationarity of the portfolio 'age-structure' within this model can have a significant impact upon probabilities of ruin. When the portfolio size is constant and the policy agedistribution is stationary, the moderate- and large-deviation probabilities of ruin are bounded and calculated using the strong approximation results of Cs6rg6 et al. (1987a, b) and a large-deviation theorem of Groeneboom et al. (1979). One consequence is that for non-Poisson claim-arrivals, the large-deviation probabilities of ruin are noticeably affected by the decision to model many parallel policy lines in place of one line with correspondingly faster claim-arrivals. RISK-RESERVE PROCESS; COMPOUND DELAYED-RENEWAL PROCESS; SUPEPPOSITION; STRONG APPROXIMATION
- Published
- 1989
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