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Providing optimal strategies for maintaining technical systems in good working condition is an important goal in reliability engineering. The main aim of this paper is to propose some optimal maintenance policies for coherent systems based on some partial information about the status of components in the system. For this purpose, in the first part of the paper, we propose two criteria under which we compute the probability of the number of failed components in a coherent system with independent and identically distributed components. The first proposed criterion utilizes partial information about the status of the components with a single inspection of the system, and the second one uses partial information about the status of component failure under double monitoring of the system. In the computation of both criteria, we use the notion of the signature vector associated with the system. Some stochastic comparisons between two coherent systems have been made based on the proposed concepts. Then, by imposing some cost functions, we introduce new approaches to the optimal corrective and preventive maintenance of coherent systems. To illustrate the results, some examples are examined numerically and graphically.

Many wear processes used for modeling accumulative deterioration in a reliability context are nonhomogeneous Lévy processes and, hence, have independent increments, which may not be suitable in an application context. In this work we consider Lévy processes transformed by monotonous functions to overcome this restriction, and provide a new state-dependent wear model. These transformed Lévy processes are first observed to remain tractable Markov processes. Some distributional properties are derived. We investigate the impact of the current state on the future increment level and on the overall accumulated level from a stochastic monotonicity point of view. We also study positive dependence properties and stochastic monotonicity of increments.

Comparison results are given for time-inhomogeneous Markov processes with respect to function classes with induced stochastic orderings. The main result states the comparison of two processes, provided that the comparability of their infinitesimal generators as well as an invariance property of one process is assumed. The corresponding proof is based on a representation result for the solutions of inhomogeneous evolution problems in Banach spaces, which extends previously known results from the literature. Based on this representation, an ordering result for Markov processes induced by bounded and unbounded function classes is established. We give various applications to time-inhomogeneous diffusions, to processes with independent increments, and to Lévy-driven diffusion processes.

In this paper we describe a perfect simulation algorithm for the stable $M/G/c$ queue. Sigman (2011: Exact Simulation of the Stationary Distribution of the FIFO M/G/c Queue. Journal of Applied Probability, 48A, 209--213) showed how to build a dominated CFTP algorithm for perfect simulation of the super-stable $M/G/c$ queue operating under First Come First Served discipline, with dominating process provided by the corresponding $M/G/1$ queue (using Wolff's sample path monotonicity, which applies when service durations are coupled in order of initiation of service), and exploiting the fact that the workload process for the $M/G/1$ queue remains the same under different queueing disciplines, in particular under the Processor Sharing discipline, for which a dynamic reversibility property holds. We generalize Sigman's construction to the stable case by comparing the $M/G/c$ queue to a copy run under Random Assignment. This allows us to produce a naive perfect simulation algorithm based on running the dominating process back to the time it first empties. We also construct a more efficient algorithm that uses sandwiching by lower and upper processes constructed as coupled $M/G/c$ queues started respectively from the empty state and the state of the $M/G/c$ queue under Random Assignment. A careful analysis shows that appropriate ordering relationships can still be maintained, so long as service durations continue to be coupled in order of initiation of service. We summarize statistical checks of simulation output, and demonstrate that the mean run-time is finite so long as the second moment of the service duration distribution is finite., 28 pages, 5 figures

In this paper we develop two permutation theorems on argument increasing functions of a multivariate random vector and a real parameter vector. We use the unified approach of our two theorems to provide some important theoretical results on the capital allocation in actuarial science, the deductible and upper limit allocations in insurance policy, and portfolio allocation in financial engineering. Our results successfully improve or extend the corresponding works in the literature.

For several pairs $(P,Q)$ of classical distributions on $\N_0$, we show that their stochastic ordering $P\leq_{st} Q$ can be characterized by their extreme tail ordering equivalent to $ P(\{k_\ast \})/Q(\{k_\ast\}) \le 1 \le \lim_{k\to k^\ast} P(\{k\})/Q(\{k\})$, with $k_\ast$ and $k^\ast$ denoting the minimum and the supremum of the support of $P+Q$, and with the limit to be read as $P(\{k^\ast\})/Q(\{k^\ast\})$ for $k^\ast$ finite. This includes in particular all pairs where $P$ and $Q$ are both binomial ($b_{n_1,p_1} \leq_{st} b_{n_2,p_2}$ if and only if $n_1\le n_2$ and $(1-p_1)^{n_1}\ge(1-p_2)^{n_2}$, or $p_1=0$), both negative binomial ($b^-_{r_1,p_1}\leq_{st} b^-_{r_2,p_2}$ if and only if $p_1\geq p_2$ and $p_1^{r_1}\geq p_2^{r_2}$), or both hypergeometric with the same sample size parameter. The binomial case is contained in a known result about Bernoulli convolutions, the other two cases appear to be new. The emphasis of this paper is on providing a variety of different methods of proofs: (i) half monotone likelihood ratios, (ii) explicit coupling, (iii) Markov chain comparison, (iv) analytic calculation, and (v) comparison of Levy measures. We give four proofs in the binomial case (methods (i)-(iv)) and three in the negative binomial case (methods (i), (iv) and (v)). The statement for hypergeometric distributions is proved via method (i)., typos corrected, two references added.

Blackwell (1951), in his seminal work on comparison of experiments, ordered two experiments using a dilation ordering: one experiment, Y, is ‘more spread out’ in the sense of dilation than another one, X, if E(c(Y))≥E(c(X)) for all convex functions c. He showed that this ordering is equivalent to two other orderings, namely (i) a total time on test ordering and (ii) a martingale relationship E(Yʹ | Xʹ)=Xʹ, where (Xʹ,Yʹ) has a joint distribution with the same marginals as X and Y. These comparisons are generalized to balayage orderings that are defined in terms of generalized convex functions. These balayage orderings are equivalent to (i) iterated total integral of survival orderings and (ii) martingale-type orderings which we refer to as k-mart orderings. These comparisons can arise naturally in model fitting and data confidentiality contexts.

We consider the stochastic sequence {Y t } t∈ℕ defined recursively by the linear relation Y t+1=A t Y t +B t in a random environment. The environment is described by the stochastic process {(A t ,B t )} t∈ℕ and is under the simultaneous control of several agents playing a discounted stochastic game. We formulate sufficient conditions on the game which ensure the existence of Nash equilibria in Markov strategies which have the additional property that, in equilibrium, the process {Y t } t∈ℕ converges in distribution to a stationary regime.

For nonnegative random variables X and Y we write X ≤TTT Y if ∫0 F -1(p)(1-F(x))dx ≤ ∫0 G -1(p)(1-G(x))dx all p ∈ (0,1), where F and G denote the distribution functions of X and Y respectively. The purpose of this article is to study some properties of this new stochastic order. New properties of the excess wealth (or right-spread) order, and of other related stochastic orders, are also obtained. Applications in the statistical theory of reliability and in economics are included.

In this paper, we are concerned with preservation properties of first and second order by an operator L representable in terms of a stochastic process Z with non-decreasing right-continuous paths. We introduce the derived operator D of L and the derived process V of Z in order to characterize the preservation of absolute continuity and convexity. To obtain different characterizations of the preservation of convexity, we introduce two kinds of duality, the first referring to the process Z and the second to the derived process V. We illustrate the preceding results by considering some examples of interest both in probability and in approximation theory - namely, mixtures, centred subordinators, Bernstein polynomials and beta operators. In most of them, we find bidensities to describe the duality between the derived processes. A unified approach based on stochastic orders is given.

Queueing networks have been rather restricted in order to have product form distributions for network states. Recently, several new models have appeared and enlarged this class of product form networks. In this paper, we consider another new type of queueing network with concurrent batch movements in terms of such product form results. A joint distribution of the requested batch sizes for departures and the batch sizes of the corresponding arrivals may be arbitrary. Under a certain modification of the network and mild regularity conditions, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for the network state to have the product form distribution, which is shown to provide an upper bound for the one in the original network. It is shown that two special settings satisfy these conditions. Algorithms to calculate their stationary distributions are considered, with numerical examples.

Batch departures arise in various applications of queues. In particular, such models have been studied recently in connection with production systems. For the most part, however, these models assume Poisson arrivals and exponential service times; little is known about them under more general settings. We consider how their stationary queue length distributions are affected by the distributions of interarrival times, service times and departing batch sizes of customers. Since this is not an easy problem even for single departure models, we first concentrate on single-node queues with a symmetric service discipline, which is known to have nice properties. We start with pre-emptive LIFO, a special case of the symmetric service discipline, and then consider symmetric queues with Poisson arrivals. Stability conditions and stationary queue length distributions are obtained for them, and several stochastic order relations are considered. For the symmetric queues and Poisson arrivals, we also discuss their network. Stability conditions and the stationary joint queue length distribution are obtained for this network.

In this paper we study the extremal properties of several scheduling policies in a queueing network consisting of multi-server queues where the topology is that of an in-forest. Associated with each customer is a due date. We assume that service times at the different queues form mutually independant sequences of independent and identically distributed random variables independent sequences of independent and identically distributed random variables independent of the arrival times and due dates. Furthermore, the network is assumed to consist of a mixture of nodes, some of which only permit non-preemptive service policies whereas the others permit preemptive resume policies. In the case of non-preemptive queues, service times may be generally distributed provided there is only one server ; otherwise the service times are required to be increasing in likelihood ratio (ILR). In the case of preemptive queues, service times are restricted to be exponentially distributed random variables. Using stochastique majorization and a partial order on permutations, we establish that, within the class of work conserving service policies, the smallest due date (SDD) and largest due date (LDD) policies minimize and maximise, respectively, the vector of the customer latenesses of the first n customers in the sense of the Schur-convex order. From this we conclude that the first come first serve (FCFS) and last come first serve (LCFS) policies minimize and maximize, respectively, the vector of the response times of the first n customers in the sense of the Schur-convex order. If due dates are only known stochastically, then we establish that the stochastic SDD and the stochastic LDD policies minimize and maximize the vector of lateness according to a weaker ordering. We also show that the FCFS and LCFS policies minimize and maximize, respectively, the vector of customer end-to-end delays in the sense of the strong stochastic order. When idling policies are under consideration, the FCFS policy is shown to be optimal for various performance metrics in the case that all queues permit preemptive resume policies and all service times are exponentially distributed. Extension of these results to the stationary regime are also given.

We present two forms of weak majorization, namely, very weak majorization and p-weak majorization that can be used as sample path criteria in the analysis of queueing systems. We demonstrate how these two criteria can be used in making comparisons among the joint queue lengths of queueing systems with blocking and/or multiple classes, by capturing an interesting interaction between state and performance descriptors. As a result, stochastic orderings on performance measures such as the cumulative number of losses can be derived. We describe applications that involve the determination of optimal policies in the context of load-balancing and scheduling.

Stochastic majorization is a tool that has been used in many areas of probability and statistics (such as multivariate statistical analysis, queueing theory and reliability theory) in order to obtain useful bounds and inequalities. In this paper we study the relations among several notions of stochastic majorization and stochastic convexity and obtain sufficient (and sometimes necessary) conditions which imply some of these notions. Extensions and generalizations of several results in the literature are obtained. Some examples and applications regarding stochastic comparisons of order statistics are also presented in order to illustrate the results of the paper.

Shanthikumar and Yao (1991) introduced some new stochastic order relations to compare the components of a bivariate random vector (X 1, X 2). As they point out in their paper, even if according to their hazard rate (or likelihood ratio) ordering, the marginal distributions may not be ordered accordingly. We introduce some new concepts where the marginal distributions preserve the corresponding stochastic orders. Also a relation between the bivariate scale model and the introduced bivariate hazard rate ordering is established.

One expects, intuitively, that the total damage caused by an epidemic increases, in a certain sense, with the infection intensity exerted by the infectives during their lifelength. The original object of the present work is to make precise in which probabilistic terms such a statement does indeed hold true, when the spread of the disease is described by a collective Reed–Frost model and the global cost is represented by the final size and severity. Surprisingly, this problem leads us to introduce an order relation for -valued random variables, unusual in the literature, based on the descending factorial moments. Further applications of the ordering occur when comparing certain sampling procedures through the number of un-sampled individuals. In particular, it is used to reinforce slightly comparison results obtained earlier for two such samplings.

We consider the relationships among the stochastic ordering of random variables, of their random partial sums, and of the number of events of a point process in random intervals. Two types of result are obtained. Firstly, conditions are given under which a stochastic ordering between sequences of random variables is inherited by (vectors of) random partial sums of these variables. These results extend and generalize theorems known in the literature. Secondly, for the strong, (increasing) convex and (increasing) concave stochastic orderings, conditions are provided under which the numbers of events of a given point process in two ordered random intervals are also ordered. These results are applied to some comparison problems in queueing systems. It is shown that if the service times in two M/GI/1 systems are compared in the sense of the strong stochastic ordering, or the (increasing) convex or (increasing) concave ordering, then the busy periods are compared for the same ordering. Stochastic bounds in the sense of increasing convex ordering on waiting times and on response times are provided for queues with bulk arrivals. The cyclic and Bernoulli policies for customer allocation to parallel queues are compared in the transient regime using the increasing convex ordering. Comparisons for the five above orderings are established for the cycle times in polling systems.

In this paper, we develop a unified approach for stochastic load balancing on various multiserver systems. We expand the four partial orderings defined in Marshall and Olkin, by defining a new ordering based on the set of functions that are symmetric, L-subadditive and convex in each variable. This new partial ordering is shown to be equivalent to the previous four orderings for comparing deterministic vectors but differs for random vectors. Sample-path criteria and a probability enumeration method for the new stochastic ordering are established and the ordering is applied to various fork-join queues, routing and scheduling problems. Our results generalize previous work and can be extended to multivariate stochastic majorization which includes tandem queues and queues with finite buffers.

In a discrete-time renewal process {Nk, k = 0, 1, ·· ·}, let Zk and Ak be the forward recurrence time and the renewal age, respectively, at time k. In this paper, we prove that if the inter-renewal time distribution is discrete DFR (decreasing failure rate) then both {Ak, k = 0, 1, ·· ·} and {Zk, k = 0, 1, ·· ·} are monotonically non-decreasing in k in hazard rate ordering. Since the results can be transferred to the continuous-time case, and since the hazard rate ordering is stronger than the ordinary stochastic ordering, our results strengthen the corresponding results of Brown (1980). A sufficient condition for {Nk+m – Nk, k = 0, 1, ·· ·} to be non-increasing in k in hazard rate ordering as well as some sufficient conditions for the opposite monotonicity results are given. Finally, Brown's conjecture that DFR is necessary for concavity of the renewal function in the continuous-time case is discussed.

The problem of where to allocate a redundant component in a system in order to optimize the lifetime of a system is an important problem in reliability theory which also poses many interesting questions in mathematical statistics. We consider both active redundancy and standby redundancy, and investigate the problem of where to allocate a spare in a system in order to stochastically optimize the lifetime of the resulting system. Extensive results are obtained in particular for series and parallel systems.

Bivariate (and multivariate) functional representations for the following stochastic order relations are established: the likelihood ratio ordering, hazard rate ordering, and the usual stochastic ordering. The motivation of the study is (i) to provide a general approach that supports the ‘pairwise interchange' arguments widely used in various settings, and (ii) to develop new notions of stochastic order relations so that dependent random variables can be meaningfully compared. Applications are illustrated through problems in stochastic scheduling, closed queueing network and reliability.

Conditional stochastic ordering is concerned with the stochastic ordering of a pair of probability measures conditional on certain subsets or sub-a-algebras. Some basic results of conditional stochastic ordering were proved by Whitt. We extend some of Whitt's results and prove a basic relation between stochastic ordering conditional on subsets and stochastic ordering conditional on a-algebras. In the second part of the paper we consider the ordering of conditional expectations. There are several different formulations of this problem motivated by different types of applications. MONOTONE LIKELIHOOD RATIO; MAXIMAL INEQUALITIES; ASSOCIATION The problem of conditional stochastic ordering of distributions is a natural and well-motivated problem, and one can find in the literature a lot of examples and applications for the conditional stochastic ordering. To mention a few of these applications let X, Y be two life lengths. Instead of comparing only X and Y with respect to the stochastic ordering

It is shown that a set of random variables with increasing and convex (concave) survival functions are stochastically increasing and convex (concave) in the sample path sense. This stochastic convexity (concavity) result is then used to establish convexity (concavity) results for (i) a single-server queueing system with a time-out control policy, (ii) residual life, (iii) stationary renewal excess life and (iv) M/G/1 queues. These results are new and could not be derived without the direct or indirect aid of the above stochastic convexity (concavity) result. Furthermore, we illustrate that the above stochastic convexity (concavity) result can be applied to obtain new bounds for queueing systems. Specifically, let be the waiting time of the nth customer in a GI/G/1 queue with inter-arrival time survival function and service time survival function . Using the above convexity result it is shown that if and for some such that then for all increasing convex functions φ, whenever the expectations exist. A similar result for and is also obtained. Other examples are also included.

The bivariate characterization of stochastic ordering relations given by Shanthikumar and Yao (1991) is based on collections of bivariate functions g(x, y), where g(x, y) and g(y, x) satisfy certain properties. We give an alternate characterization based on collections of pairs of bivariate functions, g 1(x, y) and g 2(x, y), satisfying certain properties. This characterization allows us to extend results for single machine scheduling of jobs that are identical except for their processing times, to jobs that may have different costs associated with them.

Suppose two alternative designs for a stochastic system are to be compared. These two systems can be simulated independently or dependently. This paper presents a method for comparing two regenerative stochastic processes in a dependent fashion using common random numbers. A set of sufficient conditions is given that guarantees that the dependent simulations will produce a variance reduction over independent simulations. Numerical examples for a variety of simple stochastic models are included which illustrate the variance reduction achieved. (Author)

Several partial orderings of counting processes are introduced and applied to compare stochastic processes in queueing models. The conditions for the queueing comparisons involve the counting processes associated with the interarrival and service times. The two queueing processes being compared are constructed on the same probability space so that each sample path of one process lies below the corresponding sample path of the other process. Stochastic comparisons between the processes and monotone functionals of the processes follow immediately from this construction. The stochastic comparisons are useful to obtain bounds for intractable systems. For example, the approach here yields bounds for queues with time-dependent arrival rates.

Suppose each of the two devices is subjected to shocks occurring randomly as events in a Poisson process with constant intensity λ. Let Pk denote the probability that the first device will survive the first k shocks and let denote such a probability for the second device. Let and denote the survival functions of the first and the second device respectively. In this note we show that some partial orderings, namely likelihood ratio ordering, failure rate ordering, stochastic ordering, variable ordering and mean residual-life ordering between the shock survival probabilities and are preserved by the corresponding survival functions and .

A simple queueing system, known as the fork-join queue, is considered with basic performance measure defined as the delay between the fork and join dates. Simple lower and upper bounds are derived for some of the statistics of this quantity. They are obtained, in both transient and steady-state regimes, by stochastically comparing the original system to other queueing systems with a structure simpler than the original system, yet with identical stability characteristics. In steady-state, under renewal assumptions, the computation reduces to standard GI/GI/1 calculations and the bounds constitute a first sizing-up of system performance. These bounds can also be used to show that for homogeneous fork-join queue system under assumptions, the moments of the system response time grow logarithmically in the number of parallel processors provided the service time distribution has rational Laplace–Stieltjes transform. The bounding arguments combine ideas from the theory of stochastic ordering with the notion of associated random variables, and are of independent interest to study various other queueing systems with synchronization constraints. The paper is an abridged version of a more complete report on the matter [6].

We compare two queueing systems with identical general arrival streams, but different numbers of servers, different waiting room capacities, and stochastically ordered service time distributions. Under appropriate conditions, it is possible to construct two new systems on the same probability space so that the new systems are probabilistically equivalent to the original systems and each sample path of the stochastic process representing system size in one system lies entirely below the corresponding sample path in the other system. This construction implies stochastic order for these processes and many associated quantities of interest, such as a busy period, the number of customers lost in any interval, and the virtual waiting time.

A probabilistic proof is given of the fact that the departure process from two initially empty. ·/M/1 queues in tandem is unaffected when the service rates are interchanged. As a consequence of this, we show that when the sum of the service rates at the two queues is held constant the departure process stochastically increases as the service rates become equal. The proofs are based on coupling of reflected random walks.

Properties of the conditional hazard rates of X 1, · ··, Xn and Y 1, · ··, Yn, which imply (X 1, · ··, Xn ) (Y 1, · ··, Yn ), are found. These are used to find conditions on the hazard rates of T = (T 1, · ··, Tn ) which ensure that T has the MIHR | property of Arjas (1981a) and the ‘weakened by failure’ property of Arjas and Norros (1984). Applications for load-sharing model and multivariate imperfect repair are given.

We show for the three-node Jackson network studied in [3] that a customer’s sojourn times in nodes 1 and 3 are positively correlated. We actually prove a stronger result, that the two sojourn times are associated random variables. Our proof uses a stochastic ordering argument similar to that in [4].