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This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To improve the simulation of the surface radiation budget and related thermal processes in arid regions, three sophisticated surface albedo schemes designed for such regions were incorporated into the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). Two of these schemes are functions of the solar zenith angle (SZA), where the first one has one adjustable parameter defined as SZA1 scheme, and the second one has two empirical parameters defined as SZA2 scheme. The third albedo scheme is a function of solar angle and soil water that were developed based on arid-region observations from the Dunhuang field experiment (DHEX) (defined as DH scheme). We evaluated the performance of the original and newly-incorporated albedo schemes within BATS using the in-situ data from the Oasis System Energy and Water Cycle Field Experiment that was carried out in JinTa, Gansu arid area (JTEX). The results indicate that a control run by the original version of the BATS generates a constant albedo, while the SZA1 and SZA2 schemes basically can reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of surface albedo, although these two schemes still underestimate the albedo when SZA is high in the early morning and late afternoon, and overestimate it when SZA is low during noontime. The SZA2 scheme has a better overall performance than the SZA1 scheme. In addition, BATS with the DH scheme slightly improves the albedo simulation in magnitude as compared to that from the control run, but a diurnal cycle of albedo is not produced by this scheme. The SZA1 and SZA2 schemes significantly increase the surface absorbed solar radiation by nearly 70 W m−2, which further raises the ground temperature by 6 K and the sensible heat flux by 35 W m−2. The increased solar radiation, heat flux, and temperature are more consistent with the observations that those from the control run. However, a significant improvement in these three variables is not found in BATS with the DH scheme due to the neglect of the diurnal cycle of albedo. Further analysis indicates that during cloudy days the solar radiation simulations of BATS with these three schemes are not in a good agreement with the observations, which implies that a more realistic partitioning of diffuse and direct radiation is needed in future land surface process simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]