Search

While being successful in the detection and attribution of climate change, the optimal fingerprinting method (OFM) may have some limitations from a physics-and-dynamics-based viewpoint. Here, an analysis is made on the linearity, non-interaction, and stationary-variability assumptions adopted by OFM. It is suggested that furthering OFM needs a viewpoint beyond statistical science, and the method should be combined with theoretical tools in the dynamics and physics of the Earth system, so as to be applied for the detection and attribution of nonlinear climate change including tipping elements within the Earth system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme weather events and their consequential impacts have been a key feature of the climate in recent years in many parts of the world, with many partly attributed to ongoing global-scale warming. The past year, 2022, has been no exception, with further records being broken. The year was marked by unprecedented heatwaves and droughts with highly unusual spatial extent, duration and intensity, with one measure indicating an aggregated and overall intensity of extreme heat events worldwide not seen since at least 1950. The extreme drought measured by surface soil moisture covered 47.3% of global land areas in 2022, which was the second most widespread year since 1980. Here, we examine notable events of the year in five major regions of the world: China's Yangtze River region, western Europe, the western U.S., the Horn of Africa and central South America. For each event, we review the potential roles of circulation, oceanic forcing (especially the "triple-dip" La Niña) and anthropogenic climate change, with an aim of understanding the extreme events in 2022 from a global perspective. This will serve as a reference for mechanism understanding, prediction and attribution of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880. In addition to large-scale warming, 2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes. Here, a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021, with a focus on China, along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented. Nine extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted, including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring, consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year, extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer, as well as heatwaves, persistent heavy rainfall, and a cold surge during fall. Potential links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here, providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global perspective. This serves as a reference for climate event attribution, process understanding, and high-resolution modeling of extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]