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El Niño -- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the European circulation features and on the regional climate of Hungary are evaluated in this paper. European climate is represented by atmospheric macrocirculation patterns (MCPs). Local climate characteristics are linked to ENSO phases through regionally averaged temperature values and precipitation amounts. Significant statistical relationship was found between the European circulation and the ENSO phases. Furthermore, considerable differences were detected in the empirical frequency distribution of monthly climate anomalies in Hungary during El Niño and La Niña episodes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity in the atmosphere provides an ideal topic for educational outreach in environmental science. To support this objective, a simple instrument to measure real atmospheric electrical parameters has been developed and its performance evaluated. This project compliments educational activities undertaken by the Coupling of Atmospheric Layers (CAL) European research collaboration. The new instrument is inexpensive to construct and simple to operate, readily allowing it to be used in schools as well as at the undergraduate University level. It is suited to students at a variety of different educational levels, as the results can be analysed with different levels of sophistication. Students can make measurements of the fair weather electric field and current density, thereby gaining an understanding of the electrical nature of the atmosphere. This work was stimulated by the centenary of the 1906 paper in which C. T. R. Wilson described a new apparatus to measure the electric field and conduction current density. Measurements using instruments based on the same principles continued regularly in the UK until 1979. The instrument proposed is based on the same physical principles as C. T. R. Wilson's 1906 instrument. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is based on the assumptions that (a) there exists an upper physical limit of the precipitation depth over a given area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year, and (b) that this limit can be estimated based on deterministic considerations. The most representative and widespread estimation method of PMP is the so-called moisture maximization method. This method maximizes observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would hypothetically rise up to a high value that is regarded as an upper limit and is estimated from historical records of dew points. In this paper, it is argued that fundamental aspects of the method may be flawed or inconsistent. Furthermore, historical time series of dew points and "constructed" time series of maximized precipitation depths (according to the moisture maximization method) are analyzed. The analyses do not provide any evidence of an upper bound either in atmospheric moisture or maximized precipitation depth. Therefore, it is argued that a probabilistic approach is more consistent to the natural behaviour and provides better grounds for estimating extreme precipitation values for design purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely accepted by the international scientific community that human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations1 of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. This increase has contributed to most of the warming (0.6±0.2°C) observed over the 20th century, land areas warming more than the oceans, with the 1990s very likely to be the warmest decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001). How this warming influences the occurrence, severity and frequency of ENSO episodes remains highly uncertain. The IPCC (2001) assessment of the scientific literature found insufficient evidence to suggest any direct attribution between increase in ENSO events that occurred in the last 20 to 30 years of the 20th century and global warming (IPCC, 2001). However, assessments carried out since then (e.g. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), in preparations) suggest El Niño events have become more frequent, persistent and intense during the last 20 to 30 years compared to the previous 100 years. Attribution to global warming, however, remains highly uncertain. Efforts to simulate and model past, present and future behaviour of ENSO under a warming world due to enhanced GHG concentrations produce conflicting results. Since substantial internally-generated variability of ENSO behaviour on multi-decadal to century timescales occurs in long, unforced atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations, the attribution of past and future changes in ENSO amplitude and frequency to external forcing like GHG concentrations cannot be made with certainty. Such attribution would require extensive use of ensemble climate experiments or long experiments with stabilised GHG forcing. Although there are now better ENSO simulations in AOGCM, further model improvements are needed to simulate a more realistic Pacific climatology and seasonal cycle of the key modes influencing the climate of the region, as well as more realistic ENSO variability. More research is needed to further enhance scientific understanding of possible teleconnections between ENSO and global warming. It is worth noting the IPCC AR4 due to be release in September 2007, would provide a more detailed assessment of ENSO and global warming than what is being covered in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A preface for the March 2010 issue of "Advances in Geosciences" is presented.

Turbulent planetary boundary layers (PBLs) control the exchange processes between the atmosphere and the ocean/land. The key problems of PBL physics are to determine the PBL height, the momentum, energy and matter fluxes at the surface and the mean wind and scalar pro- files throughout the layer in a range of regimes from stable and neutral to convective. Until present, the PBLs typical of stormy weather were always considered as neutrally stratified. Recent works have disclosed that such PBLs are in fact very strongly affected by the static stability of the free atmosphere and must be treated as factually stable (we call this type of the PBL "conventionally neutral" in contract to the "truly neutral" PBLs developed against the neutrally stratified free flow). It is common knowledge that basic features of PBLs exhibit a noticeable dependence on the free-flow static stability and baroclinicity. However, the concern of the traditional theory of neural and stable PBLs was almost without exception the barotropic nocturnal PBL, which develops at mid latitudes during a few hours in the night, on the background of a neutral or slightly stable residual layer. The latter separates this type of the PBL from the free atmosphere. It is not surprising that the nature of turbulence in such regimes is basically local and does not depend on the properties of the free atmosphere. Alternatively, long-lived neutral (in fact only conditionally neutral) or stable PBLs, which have much more time to grow up, are placed immediately below the stably stratified free flow. Under these conditions, the turbulent transports of momentum and scalars even in the surface layer -- far away from the PBL outer boundary -- depend on the free-flow Brunt- Väisälä frequency, N. Furthermore, integral measures of the long-lived PBLs (their depths and the resistance law functions) depend on N and also on the baroclinic shear, S. In the traditional PBL models both non-local parameters N and S were overlooked. One of possible mechanisms responsible for non-local features of the long-lived PBLs could be the radiation of internal gravity waves (IGW) from the PBL upper boundary to the free atmosphere and the IGW-induced transport of the squared fluctuations of velocity and potential temperature. The free-flow stability plays an especially important role in is the conventionally neutral PBLs (those with the zero potential-temperature flux at the surface: Fθ=0 at z=0, developed against non-zero static stability in the free atmosphere: N>0). The above reasoning obviously calls for a comprehensive revision of the traditional theory. In a series of papers (quoted below in References) an advanced theory has been proposed. It includes the following developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we document "SOCOL", a new chemistry-climate model, which has been ported for regular PCs and shows good wall-clock performance. An extensive validation of the model results against present-day climate obtained from observations and assimilation data sets shows that the model describes the climatological state of the atmosphere for the late 1990s with reasonable accuracy. The model has a significant temperature bias only in the upper stratosphere and near the tropopause in the tropics and high latitudes. The latter is the result of the rather low vertical resolution of the model near the tropopause. The former can be attributed to a crude representation of the radiation heating in the middle atmosphere. A comparison of the simulated and observed link between the tropical stratospheric structure and the strength of the polar vortex shows that in general, both observations and simulations reveal a higher temperature and ozone mixing ratio in the lower tropical stratosphere for the case with stronger Polar night jet (PNJ) as predicted by theoretical studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convective rainfall is often focalized in areas of moisture convergence. A close relationship between precipitation and fast variations of vertically-integrated water vapour (IWV) has been found in numerous cases. Therefore, continuous monitoring of atmospheric humidity and its spatial distribution is crucial to the operational forecaster for a proper nowcasting of heavy rainfall events. The microwave signals continuously broadcasted by the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) satellites are influenced by the water vapour as they travel through the atmosphere. Estimates of IWV retrieved from ground-based GNSS observations may, then, constitute a source of information on the horizontal distribution and the time evolution of atmospheric humidity. At the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET), a near-real-time map of IWV estimates retrieved from ground GNSS measurements in the Iberian Peninsula and West Mediterranean region is operationally built and presented to the forecaster. The maps are generated every 15 minutes following a one-dimensional variational assimilation scheme with the previous map as the background state. A case study is presented in order to illustrate some strengths and weaknesses of the product, to assess the potential benefit of using GNSS products in nowcasting and to define the steps to be done in order to make use of the full potential of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a forced-dissipative barotropic model of the atmosphere on a spherical planet, by following mathematical techniques in (Thompson, P. D.: The equilibrium energy spectrum of randomly forced two-dimensional turbulence, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 30, 1593-1598, 1973) but applying them in a novel context of the discrete spectrum on a rotating sphere, the "minus 2" energy spectrum for wavenumbers much greater than a characteristic wavenumber of the baroclinic forcing has been obtained if the forcing is taken in the simplest and most fundamental form. Some observation-based atmospheric kinetic energy spectra, with their slopes lying between "minus 2" and "minus 3" laws, are discussed from the perspective of the deduced "minus 2" energy spectrum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The four year "Coupling of Atmospheric Layers (CAL)" EU FP5 Research Training Network project studied unanswered questions related to transient luminous events (sprites, jets and elves) in the upper atmosphere. Consisting of ten scientific work-packages CAL also included intensive training and outreach programmes for the young scientists hired. Educational activities were based on the following elements: national PhD programmes, activities at CAL and other meetings, a dedicated summer school, and two European sprite observational campaigns. The young scientists were strongly involved in the latter and, as an example, the "EuroSprite2005" observational campaign is presented in detail. Some of the young scientists participated in the instrument set-up, others in the campaign logistics, some coordinated the observations, and others gathered the results to build a catalogue. During the four-month duration of this campaign, all of them took turns in operating the system and making their own night observations. The ongoing campaign activities were constantly advertised and communicated via an Internet blog. In summary the campaign required all the CAL young scientists to embark on experimental work, to develop their organisational skills, and to enhance their ability to communicate their activities. The campaign was a unique opportunity to train and strengthen skills that will be an asset to their future careers and, overall, was most successful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is generally believed that the low-frequency variability of climatic parameters seems to be connected to solar cycles. The principal periodicities are: 11-year (Schwabe), 22-year (Hale), 33-year (Bruckner) and 80-100-year (Gleissberg) cycles. The main heliophysical factors acting on climate, the biosphere and the atmosphere are solar irradiance, the intensity of solar and galactic cosmic rays (relativistic charged particles with energies >500 MeV) changing the cloud cover of the atmosphere, and UV-B-radiation. The 11-year and 80-90-year solar cycles are apparent in solar radiation and galactic cosmic ray trends. At the same time the bidecadal Hale cycle, related to a reversal of the main solar magnetic field direction is practically absent in either solar radiation or galactic cosmic ray variations. Besides, nobody can identify any physical mechanisms by which a reversal in the solar magnetic field direction could influence climate. However, the 22-year cycle has been identified in rather many regional climatic (droughts, rainfall, tree growth near 68° N, 30° E) and temperature records all over the world. We discuss here three possible cause of the bidecadal periodicity in climatic records, one of which is associated with a variation of stardust flux inside the Solar System. The most recent observations by the DUST experiment on board the Ulysses spacecraft have shown that the solar magnetic field lost its protective power during the last change of its polarity (the most recent solar maximum), so that the stardust level inside of the Solar System has been enhanced by a factor of three. It is possible that the periodic increases of stardust in the Solar System may influence the amount of extraterrestrial material that falls to the Earth and consequently act on the Earth's atmosphere and climate through alteration of atmospheric transparency and albedo. This material (interstellar dust and/or cometary matter) may also provide nucleation sites and thereby influence precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cosmic ray induced ionization (CRII) is an important factor of outer space influences on atmospheric properties. Variations of CRII are caused by two different processes - solar activity variations, which modulate the cosmic ray flux in interplanetary space, and changes of the geomagnetic field, which affects the cosmic ray access to Earth. Migration of the geomagnetic dipole axis may greatly alter CRII in some regions on a time scale of centuries and longer. Here we present a study of CRII regional effects of the geomagnetic field changes during the last millennium for two regions: Europe and the Far East. We show that regional effects of the migration of the geomagnetic dipole axis may overcome global changes due to solar activity variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fully integrated Atmospheric-Ocean-Hydrology Model (BALTIMOS = Baltic Integrated Model System) has been developed using existing model components. Experiment and model design has been adapted to the Baltic basin with a catchment area of approximately 1 750 000 km². A comprehensive model validation has been completed using large meteorological and hydrological measurement database. Comparing the calculated runoff from the integrated and non-integrated model system with measurements for three different representative subbasins and the entire Baltic basin, the effect of the integrated model is described. The results display a good agreement between measured and calculated runoff. The effect of the integrated model is rather negligible looking at computed mean values: There is no significant difference between mean monthly runoff of the integrated and non-integrated model during the year with the exception of spring. There is a delay of one month with regard to peak runoff for the non-integrated model in spring caused by different interactive processes during the melting period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we discuss the cause and effect of opposing atmospheric and oceanic ENSO forcings in the Ross Sea, that lead to a net warming in the eastern Ross Sea and a net cooling in the western Ross Sea during El Niño years. During La Niña years the opposite is observed. The oceanic ENSO effect causes a ~1 K warming with a 3 month lag during El Niño years in comparison to La Niña time periods. During El Niño events, the atmospheric ENSO effect leads to a shift and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low, causing enhanced import of colder West Antarctic air masses into the western Ross Sea. We find that this indirect ENSO effect is about one order of magnitude stronger (up to 15K) in the western Ross Sea than the direct effect (~1 K), leading to a net cooling during El Niño and net warming during La Niña events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity -- QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model) in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV) on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000) allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]