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• Causes of the annual evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield trends over vegetated mainland China were investigated. • Vegetation and precipitation dominated ET trends over 55% and 32% of study area, respectively. • Human-distributed vegetation and natural vegetation combined explained water yield trends over 30% areas. • Vegetation (particularly for human-distributed vegetation) greening was crucial for the hydrological cycle changes. Quantifying the contributions of climate and vegetation to the dynamics of evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (i.e., precipitation minus ET) will help us better understand the changes in the water budget. In this study, we identified the contributions of climate variables (including precipitation, radiation, temperature, and relative humidity), human-disturbed vegetation, and natural vegetation to the trends in annual ET and water yield over vegetated mainland China during 2001–2020, using a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model and a joint-solution method with multiple sensitivity numerical experiments. Results showed that 46% of the study area experienced significant (p <0.05) increases in ET, with an overall increase of 2.32 mm y−1. Meanwhile, the overall trend in water yield was 2.56 mm y−1 but insignificant. Spatially, vegetation and precipitation are the dominant factors for ET trends over 55% and 32% of vegetated mainland China, respectively. Over the regions where vegetation dominates the ET trends, nearly half of these regions are covered by human-disturbed vegetation (e.g., cropland or regions with land cover changes), suggesting that anthropogenic activities play a crucial role in the hydrological cycle there. Concerning the trends in water yield, precipitation is the dominant factor over 64% areas. Human-disturbed vegetation and natural vegetation play similar roles and combined can explain the water yield trends over 30% areas. Our study highlights the spatial variations in the mechanisms behind changes in the water budget over mainland China, particularly in regions covered by human-disturbed vegetation. This finding should be considered in the existing and future national ecological recovery policies to maximize its eco-hydrological benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]