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• Vaganov–Shashkin lite was integrated with stochastic antecedent modeling. • Tree-ring width data of 109 conifers in temperate China were analyzed. • Tree-ring width series were clustered into warm-dry, cold-dry, and cold-wet. • Current and antecedent climatic drivers of tree-ring width series were quantified. • Our model improves the simulated results of tree-ring growth in diverse forests. Process modeling of tree growth responses to climate can improve our understanding of the functioning of tree growth under climate change, but these models do not consider so-called memory effects. Further, memory effects are unstudied in temperate forests of China, which is showing high vulnerability to climate warming. Here, we integrate a process-based Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VS-Lite) model of tree ring formation with the stochastic antecedent modeling (SAM) approach, to quantify the current and antecedent climatic drivers of the tree-ring width chronologies of 109 conifers in temperate China. Based on climate-response patterns, tree-ring width series were clustered into "warm-dry," "cold-dry," and "cold-wet." The VS-Lite results indicated growth in the "warm-dry" and "cold-dry" sites were primarily constrained by current soil moisture, while growth in the "cold-wet" sites was mainly constrained by cotemporaneous temperature. Compared to VS-Lite alone, we found significant improvements in model fit for the SAM framework in all forest types. Notably, antecedent drivers explained 14%, 11%, and 21% of the growth variations in "warm-dry," "cold-dry," and "cold-wet" sites, respectively, challenging the assertion that long memory is only important in dry forests. Commonality analysis revealed that growth in "cold-dry" and "cold-wet" sites was determined by antecedent climate while growth in the "cold-dry" and "warm-dry" clusters were determined by the endogenous (autoregressive) memory. In "warm-dry" and "cold-wet" sites, growth was significantly affected by antecedent temperature in opposite directions, whereas in the "cold-dry" sites it was affected by antecedent soil moisture conditions and soil moisture-temperature interactions. Our combined process-empirical model demonstrates that memory is prevalent across temperate forests in China and also improves representation of tree growth in diverse forests under novel climate conditions of the future. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Accelerated tree growth coincided with increased water-use efficiency in mature Qinghai spruce. • Nitrogen availability positively affected tree growth from 1920 to 2000. • Tree-ring δ15N and C/N values have decreased synchronously since 1965 onwards. • Tree growth enhancement in 2003–2019 was driven by CO 2 fertilization, not by nitrogen availability. Terrestrial vegetation growth is stimulated by rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration, a warmer climate, and increased soil nutrient availability. However, as plants age, progressive nutrient limitation is known to occur, especially in mature forests where soil nitrogen is deficient. Yet the long-term growth response of mature trees to rising CO 2 accompanied by changing climate and nitrogen availability in semi-arid mountain regions is unclear. Here we used tree-ring widths and stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotopes to investigate the drivers of radial growth of mature Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) in the central Qilian Mountains, northwest China, from 1840 through 2019. Tree growth benefited from improved nitrogen availability, chiefly via changes in bioavailable nitrogen pools modified by a favorable climate during 1930–1964. Enhanced intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), driven by reduced stomatal conductance (g s) related to water deficit, lead to radial growth declines in 1985–2002. Recent acceleration of tree growth was largely attributed to a CO 2 fertilization effect through enhanced iWUE during 2003–2019. Nitrogen availability was positively related to tree growth from the 1920s onward until greater CO 2 fertilization ensued from 2000 onward. Hence, the negative effects of low nitrogen availability on growth could be mitigated or reversed by a high atmospheric CO 2 concentration and warmer climate conditions. Our results suggest that mature spruce forests still harbor potential to increase ecosystem-level carbon sequestration and thereby partially mitigate climate warming. Such a nature-based solution in drought-prone forests would be achieved under warmer-wetter climate conditions in northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]