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Abstract: Agro-meteorological metrics are indicators of weather determined environmental conditions on which agricultural management decisions are made. Metrics derived from an estimated future climate provide an opportunity to characterise the impacts of climate change on a wide range of agricultural systems, land use practices and ecosystem services. Such indications are vital for determining how changes in the biophysical environment can lead to land management and policy adaptations to achieve multiple objectives of financial viability, food security, biodiversity conservation and environmental sustainability. They provide valuable links between probable management adaptation responses and capacity for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, there are large uncertainties associated with projected future climates, including the climate models’ spatial scale of representation and those at which agro-meteorological metrics are applied. This paper describes the estimation of agro-meteorological metrics derived from observed weather and downscaled Regional Climate Model projection data for 12 sites in Scotland. Results show that projected changes to seasonal rainfall distribution, growing season length, soil moisture deficits and accessibility will be substantially different from the present climate. Fundamentally, the metrics indicate a substantial shift in land management requirements and potential need for substantial changes in agricultural systems and land use that will have implications across a wide range of research disciplines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negative impacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in the context of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. High data demands including site-specific bio-physical and economic data are an important constraint. This paper applies a new approach to impact assessment, the Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD), which simulates technology adoption and associated economic, environmental and social outcomes in a heterogeneous farm population for a regional impact assessment. The methodology uses the kinds of survey, experimental and modeled data that are typically available in countries where semi-subsistence systems are important, combined with future socio-economic scenarios based on new scenario pathway concepts being developed by the climate change and impact assessment modeling communities. Characteristics of current and future agricultural systems, including land use, output, output price, cost of production, and farm and household size are analyzed and compared for both current and projected future climate (2030), with and without adaptation, and for different socio-economic scenarios. The methodology is applied to two study areas in Kenya. These case studies show the potential of this approach to provide a flexible, generic framework that can use available and modeled data to evaluate climate impact and adaptation strategies under a range of socio-economic scenarios. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Livestock systems in the United Kingdom will be affected by climate change. • A range of on-farm adaptation options are available at low-cost. • Adapting to observed and short-term impacts may overcome barriers. • Long-term changes should be planned for. Agriculture is a vital economic sector, providing food, fibre, and energy to a growing human population. Livestock are an important part of this sector, however the evidence and understanding of how a changing climate may affect livestock production systems, or how they may adapt to the changes, is a neglected area compared to the research into crop production. In this paper, we focus on livestock in the United Kingdom (UK), as an example of a temperate region likely to experience at least moderate changes in climate that will require changes to the way agricultural systems operate. We summarise the projected climate changes in this region, identify the main impacts likely to affect livestock agriculture, and discuss potential adaptation options at the farm level. We also categorise the adaptation options by the types of costs they incur, emphasising that many of these options involve management changes rather than investment and therefore no financial cost. Finally, we discuss the need for longer term planning to prepare for changes that have not yet been observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]