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The Mediterranean Basin has been identified as a climate change "hotspot", a region where increased warming and drying are expected to occur at rates faster than the global average. Increasing scientific attention has therefore been drawn to the repercussions of climate change for the Mediterranean's diverse and valued agricultural sector. The extent to which these repercussions vary throughout the region, owing both to a non-uniform distribution of climatic hazards and to uneven adaptive capacities of farmers, remains however unquantified. We hereby provide a comprehensive spatial assessment of the potential to implement different farm-based land and water management adaptations across the Mediterranean's croplands, and evaluate the extent to which different regions see a match or a mismatch between areas of adaptation need and areas of adaptation capacity. This approach made use of spatial multi-criteria analysis to evaluate the suitability of different farm adaptations, and relied on the Ecocrop climate suitability model and climate data on changing duration or frequency of extremes to identify areas of adaptation need under a high-end climate change scenario. The adaptations explored in this work span a range of sustainable approaches addressing different components of the farming system (soil-based, water-based, and crop-based adaptations). For each sub-system, we compared the potential to implement an adaptation representing an incremental change vs. one involving greater transformation. Results indicate a worsening of climatic conditions for all croplands in the region, and particularly within the Mediterranean extents of Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Spain, Morocco, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Israel. In more than half of these countries, >60% of highly affected Mediterranean areas, on average, see no tangible potential to implement adaptations. Importantly, potentials for adaptation, and particularly of transformational adaptations having the greatest hypothesized capacity to buffer against the effects of climate change, are found to be lower within areas where the most adverse climate change hazards are forecast to occur. For regions found to be approaching so-called limits to adaptation, this research contributes to growing calls for consideration of more transformational options, alongside the opportunities and sacrifices these options entail. For regions where considerable (yet unrealized) adaptation capacity is found to match areas of adaptation need, this paper instead presents a basis for further investigation on how to bridge adaptation capacity and preparedness. [Display omitted] • Mediterranean croplands will witness increased drought and heat stress under RCP 8.5. • Croplands in the south-west and east will face the greatest increases in climatic extremes. • Most regions have a > 50% spatial mismatch between adaptation potential and needs. • Adaptation potential is lower where most needed, especially for transformational adaptations. • Greater reflection on transformation needed as limits to adaptation are approached. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Effective vineyard decision making at strategic and operational timescales requires consideration of many factors, including vineyard design and management options, exogenous factors that are outside of the decision maker's control such as climate/weather, and desired outcomes such as yield and grape composition attributes. Process-based models enable prediction of vineyard outcomes in response to different decisions and with respect to exogenous factors. Objective: We present a review of process-based models that can simulate both key vineyard outcomes and their sensitivity to decisions and exogenous factors, and highlight how these models can 'bridge the gap' between data and decisions. Methods: We assess the suitability of process-based models to water, canopy and nutrient management contexts using a conceptual systems framework. Results and Conclusions: Currently available process-based models are most advanced in terms of supporting decisions regarding water management, and least advanced regarding nutrient management. They are also better suited to support decisions with respect to yield, compared to grape composition attributes. Significance: This paper provides guidance to modelling practitioners regarding appropriate process-based models for a range of vineyard decision contexts and assists viticulturists and decision makers in understanding how these models can support decisions for improved outcomes. [Display omitted] • A review of process-based models for decision support in viticulture. • Roles and requirements of process-based models for decision support identified using a conceptual systems framework. • Assessment of the suitability of process-based models for water, canopy and nutrient management. • Address the growing 'data to decisions' gap in viticulture due to under-utilization of process-based models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]