Search

Climate change is estimated to substantially reduce crop yields in Sub-Saharan West Africa by 2050. Yet, a limited number of studies also suggest that several adaptation measures may mitigate the effects of climate change induced yield loss. In this paper, we used AquaCrop, a process-based model developed by the FAO (The Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy), to quantify the risk of climate change on several key cereal crops in the Niger Basin. The crops analyzed include maize, millet, and sorghum under rain fed cultivation systems in various agro-ecological zones within the Niger Basin. We also investigated several adaptation strategies, including changes in the sowing dates, soil nutrient status, and cultivar. Future climate change is estimated using nine ensemble bias-corrected climate model projection results under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (RCP--Representative Concentration Pathway) emissions scenario at mid future time period, 2021/25-2050. The results show that on average, temperature had a larger effect on crop yields so that the increase in precipitation could still be a net loss of crop yield. Our simulated results showed that climate change effects on maize and sorghum yield would be mostly positive (2% to 6% increase) in the Southern Guinea savanna zone while at the Northern Guinea savanna zone it is mostly negative (2% to 20% decrease). The results show that at the Sahelian zone the projected changes in temperature and precipitation have little to no impact on millet yield for the future time period, 2021/25-2050. In all agro-ecological zones, increasing soil fertility from poor fertility to moderate, near optimal and optimal level significantly reversed the negative yield change respectively by over 20%, 70% and 180% for moderate fertility, near optimal fertility, and optimal fertility. Thus, management or adaptation factors, such as soil fertility, had a much larger effect on crop yield than the climatic change factors. These results provide actionable guidance on effective climate change adaptation strategies for rain fed agriculture in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-smart agriculture is one of the most important actions for agricultural climate change adaptation, especially in Togo, a sub-Saharan African country with a fragile ecology and where agriculture is profoundly impacted by climate change. Using a multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR) and a multinomial endogenous treatment effect (METE) approach, we conducted empirical research to identify the factors influencing the adoption decisions of climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) and their impact on household food security among smallholder farmers in Togo. The findings of this study revealed that the adoption of CSAPs by farmers is influenced by a range of factors, such as age, marital status, the household head's gender, engagement in off-farm activities, level of education, farm size, agroecological zone, regional location, land ownership, distance between homestead and farm, access to credit, the presence of agricultural associations and cooperatives, and access to extension agents. On the one hand, the MESR analysis demonstrated a positive correlation between the number of adopted CSAPs and households' food consumption score. Similarly, greater adoption of CSAPs resulted in a significant reduction in the food insecurity experience scale. On the other hand, the METE model portrayed an increase in acceptable food consumption when households adopted up to three CSAPs. Likewise, it significantly alleviated severe food insecurity. Further results based on the propensity score matching technique showed that the adoption of a crop rotation system, utilization of improved varieties of seeds, plant protection products, inorganic fertilizer, organic fertilizer, and irrigation improved adopters' food consumption scores while reducing their level of food insecurity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Every decade, a suite of standardized climatological metrics known as climate normals are updated, providing averages of temperature and precipitation data over the previous 30-year period. Although some of these climate normals are directly applicable to agricultural producers, there are additional agroclimate metrics calculated from meteorological data that provide physiologically relevant information for on-farm management decisions. In this study, we identified a suite of energy-based agroclimate metrics and calculated changes over the two most recent normal periods (1981–2010 and 1991–2020), focusing on specialty crop production regions in California. Observed changes in agroclimate metrics were largely consistent with broader global warming trends. While most metrics showed small changes between the two periods, during the 1991–2020 period, the last spring freeze occurred ~5 days earlier as compared to the 1981–2010 period, contributing to a >6 day longer frost-free period in the Sacramento and Salinas Valleys; likewise an additional 6.4 tropical nights (Tn > 20 °C) occurred in the Coachella Valley during the 1991–2020 period. A complementary trend analysis of the agroclimate metrics over the 1981–2020 period showed significant increases in growing degree days across all agricultural regions, while significant increases in heat exposure were found for the Salinas and Imperial Valleys and over the Central Coast region. Moreover, summer reference evapotranspiration increased approximately 40 mm in California's Central Valley during 1981–2020, with implications for agricultural water resources. Quantifying the shifts in these agroclimate metrics between the two most recent 30-year normal periods and the accompanying 40-year trends provides context for understanding and communicating around changing climatic baselines and underscores the need for adaptation to meet the challenge that climate change poses to agriculture both in the future and in the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]