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Background: The deterioration of pulmonary function, such as FEV1-decline, is strongly associated with poor prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, few investigations shed light on useful biomarkers for predicting the decline of pulmonary function. We evaluated whether thymus and activation-regulated chemokine (TARC), a Th2 inflammation marker, could predict rapid FEV1-decline in COPD patients. Methods: We recruited 161 patients with stable COPD and performed pulmonary function test once every six months. At the time of registration, blood tests, including serum levels of TARC were performed. We assessed the correlation between changes in parameters of pulmonary function tests and serum levels of TARC. The rapid-decline in pulmonary function was determined using 25th percentile of change in FEV1 or FEV1 percent predicted (%FEV1) per year. Results: In the FEV1-rapid-decline group, the frequency of exacerbations, the degree of emphysema, and serum levels of TARC was higher than in the non-rapid-decline group. When using %FEV1 as a classifier instead of FEV1, age, the frequency of exacerbations, the degree of emphysema and serum levels of TARC in the rapid-decline group was significantly greater than those in the non-rapid-decline group. In univariate logistic regression analysis, TARC was the significant predictive factor for rapid-decline group. In multivariate analysis adjusted for emphysema, serum levels of TARC are independently significant predicting factors for the rapid-decline group. Conclusions: TARC is an independent predictive biomarker for the rapid-decline in FEV1. Measuring serum TARC levels may help the management of COPD patients by predicting the risk of FEV1 decline.