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The sustainability of land conversion to urban use is an important factor that promotes sustainable urbanization. However, China's local governments have relied too much on the land finance model for urbanization, which has led to disordered growth of urban land, ultimately posing a threat to ecosystem security and socioeconomic development. Effectively evaluating the factors that influence the growth of urban land is critical to improving the sustainability of urban land use. In this study, we explored the factors that affect the growth in the area of urban land using spatial analysis models based on panel data for Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2019. We found that fiscal decentralization, infrastructure, industrialization, and industrial upgrading were the main factors responsible for the growth of urban land, but that their degrees of influence differed between regions. Our findings identify the necessity for local governments to design urban land-use policies and perform strategic planning for urban land use to improve sustainability based on the main factors that influenced the growth of urban land in each region., (© 2022. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.)

Nature can survive without humans, but humans cannot survive without nature. Despite a clear understanding of this dependency, humans continue to exist in disharmony with nature, and our current environmental and human dilemmas reflect old problems with a long history. Societies have historically experienced many transitions from harmony between nature and society to a crisis of disharmony, followed by a subsequent transition from crisis to harmony. Such ecological crises arise when society no longer practices sustainable consumption of resources within the limits imposed by the environmental carrying capacity. Over the long term, the growth in human desires has always exceeded the growth in the environmental carrying capacity. Science, technology, and social institutions must all be improved to resolve the ecological crises that arise from this imbalance. This paper discusses how increasing understanding of the problem by the public and by decision makers is the key to minimizing the undesirable impacts of the coming bottleneck for sustainable development. Furthermore, we emphasize how this awareness must be translated into fundamental political and economic changes.