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This empirical research study endeavors to elevate our understanding of the interrelationship of several aspects of economic dynamism at the state level in the United States. We investigate the factors influencing geographic mobility, i.e., both net in-migration and gross in-migration patterns, by simultaneously focusing on two hypotheses using state-level panel data covering the period 2005-2017, as well as Pre-Great Recession and Post-Great Recession sub-periods thereof. These two hypotheses are as follows: the pattern of geographic mobility is positively impacted by a business climate that is (a) friendly to the pursuit of entrepreneurship per se on the one hand and (b) migrants are attracted to environments having greater labor market freedom on the other hand. This paper reveals that these two hypotheses receive simultaneous empirical support (i.e., they are not incompatible with one another).

We investigate the impact of federal budget deficits and other factors on the ex-post and ex-ante real yields on high-grade municipal bonds. The estimation results reveal that both yields increase with the real yield on 30-year Moody’s Aaa-rated bonds and provisions in the Community Reinvestment Act but decrease with net capital inflows, the real GDP growth rate, and the average effective federal income tax rate. Most importantly, both yields are increasing functions of the federal budget deficit. These results support limiting the size of federal budget deficits to avoid the excessive crowding out of private investment spending.

We are the first to empirically analyze whether the "Guidance on Accessing Capital for Minority, Underserved, Veteran and Women-Owned Business Concerns" (Guidance) program was successful. The program was implemented to promote the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans provided by Minority Depository Institutions (MDIs) in the second round compared to the first round of PPP. Using both loan-level data from the Small Business Administration (SBA) and balance-sheet-level data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), we obtain compelling empirical evidence indicating that MDIs issued relatively more PPP loans (scaled by institution assets) than non-MDIs in the second round. This finding is evidence that the goal of dedicated access for MDIs under the Guidance program was successful. It also enhances the understanding of the PPP lending program and the impact of the Federal Reserve PPP Liquidity Facility (PPPLF) in terms of the role played by MDIs.

Given the importance to businesses of having a better understanding of factors that influence migration, this study argues that there are two dimensions of the quality of life and economic opportunities that have largely been ignored in previously published studies of migration patterns in the U.S.: the impacts of (1) the costs of commuting between one’s residence and one’s place of employment and (2) apartment rent-levels and single-family housing price levels. It is hypothesized here that the greater the commute time between one’s prospective place of residence and one’s prospective place of employment, the greater the costs associated with in-migration to that potential residence in terms not only of the value of time expended round-trip in commuting but also the opportunity costs and mental health costs (stress) of that time along with the greater pecuniary costs that accompany longer commutes. Therefore, it is hypothesized that in-migration to an area is a decreasing function of commute time associated with that area. A second hypothesis proffered here is that greater housing-cost levels reduce disposable real income and hence utility. More specifically, we argue that either higher apartment rent levels or higher prices on single family homes reduce disposable real income and thereby reduce household well-being; hence, in-migration to an area is hypothesized to be a decreasing function of those higher rent levels and higher home prices. Based upon panel 2SLS estimates, where net in-migration and gross in-migration over the 2010-2017 period are separately considered, there is strong initial empirical support for both hypotheses.

Effectively no scholarly research has been published in peer-reviewed journals on the potential migration impacts of environments that are more conducive to entrepreneurship. Similarly, the potential migration impact of personal freedom also is essentially ignored in the literature. This study seeks to add to the literature by investigating the impacts of both entrepreneurial activity and personal freedom on state in-migration patterns. Using a panel dataset for the post-Great Recession period 2010-2017, the empirical analysis reveals that all three of the Kauffman indices of entrepreneurial activity are found to exercise a positive and statistically significant impact on both net in-migration and gross in-migration. In addition, the index of overall personal freedom is found to exercise a positive and statistically significant impact on both of these in-migration measures. Thus, it appears that there may be good reason for future migration studies to take such variables into account when seeking to explain, understand, and predict migration patterns in the U.S.

The annualized interest rate charged on payday loans can reach 1,950 percent, whereas similar rates charged by banks are typically less than 25 percent. Also, persons borrowing from payday lenders and paying the higher interest rates are disproportionately lower-income Blacks. This provides an incentive for Blacks seeking loans to turn to banks rather than payday lenders. This may be more likely to happen when there are Black-owned banks in communities with greater percentages of Blacks. Indeed, offices of such banks may substitute for payday loan stores, providing a greater opportunity for Blacks to avoid the higher interest rates associated with payday lenders. We hypothesize that to the extent Black-owned banks substitute for payday there is a greater opportunity for lower-income Blacks to substitute/switch firms and thereby seek lower-cost loans. We do find that there are significantly fewer payday loan stores in counties where there are more Black bank offices.

A large empirical literature has found positive effects from economic freedom on economic outcomes, such as output and per capita economic growth. This study seeks to explain empirically the disparate timing of state manufacturing earnings and employment decline, as well as the shift among states in both manufacturing earnings and manufacturing employment resulting from right-to-work laws, which can be viewed as reflecting labor market freedom and thereby acting as a de facto economic policy. The results of the empirical estimations suggest a marked geographic shift of manufacturing employment and compensation in the U.S. during the 1970 to 2012 time period. The empirical estimations indicate that the regions of the country that have historically represented the manufacturing base have suffered the greatest relative losses in both employment and compensation during this period. In addition to regional location, it appears that right-to-work laws have had the effect of leveling manufacturing employment and compensation levels across the states since 1970. The data analysis suggests that, at least in part due to right-to-work laws, the manufacturing sectors of the states and regions are becoming increasingly similar over time, i.e., manufacturing activity that was once highly concentrated in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mideast has now converged significantly, with the outcome that there is little geographic difference in concentration among the eight BEA regions.

This study empirically investigates the “relative tax gap hypothesis,” which posits that the greater the size of the relative tax gap, the greater the degree to which the U.S. Treasury must borrow from domestic and/or other credit markets and hence the higher the ex ante real interest rate yield on the Bellwether 30 year U.S. Treasury bond. The study uses the most current data available for computing what is referred to here as the “relative tax gap,” which is the ratio of the aggregate tax gap (the loss in federal income tax revenue resulting from personal income tax evasion) to the GDP level. For each year of the study period, the nominal value of the tax gap is scaled by the nominal GDP level and expressed as a percentage. The study period runs from 1982 through 2016, reflecting data availability for all of the variables. The estimation results provide strong support for the hypothesis. In addition, in separate estimations, evidence is provided that the relative tax gap also acts to elevate the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long-term corporate bonds. It logically follows, then, that to the extent that a greater relative tax gap leads to higher ex ante real interest rates, it may contribute to the crowding out of corporate investment in new plant equipment associated heretofore with government budget deficits per se.