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This paper explores the nature of fluctuations in world bulk shipping by quantifying the impact of time to build and demand uncertainty on investment and prices. We examine the impact of both construction lags and their lengthening in periods of high investment activity, by constructing a dynamic model of ship entry and exit. A rich dataset of secondhand ship sales allows for a new estimation strategy: resale prices provide direct information on value functions and allow their nonparametric estimation. We find that moving from time-varying to constant to no time to build reduces prices, while significantly increasing both the level and volatility of investment. (JEL G31, L11, L62, L92)

We investigate whether car buyers are myopic about future fuel costs. We estimate the effect of gasoline prices on short-run equilibrium prices of cars of different fuel economies. We then compare the implied changes in willingness-to-pay to the associated changes in expected future gasoline costs for cars of different fuel economies in order to calculate implicit discount rates. Using different assumptions about annual mileage, survival rates, and demand elasticities, we calculate a range of implicit discount rates similar to the range of interest rates paid by car buyers who borrow. We interpret this as showing little evidence of consumer myopia. (JEL D12, H25, L11, L62, L71, L81)

Can heuristic information processing affect important product markets? We explore whether the tendency to focus on the left-most digit of a number affects how used car buyers incorporate odometer values in their purchase decisions. Analyzing over 22 million wholesale used-car transactions, we find substantial evidence of this left-digit bias; there are large and discontinuous drops in sale prices at 10,000-mile thresholds in odometer mileage, along with smaller drops at 1,000-mile thresholds. We obtain estimates for the inattention parameter in a simple model of this left-digit bias. We also investigate whether this heuristic behavior is primarily attributable to the final used-car customers or the used-car salesmen who buy cars in the wholesale market. The evidence is most consistent with partial inattention by final customers. We discuss the significance of these results for the literature on inattention and point to other market settings where this type of heuristic thinking may be important. Our results suggest that information-processing heuristics may be important even in markets with large stakes and where information is easy to observe.

Almost all real assets trade in decentralized markets, where trading frictions could inhibit the efficiency of asset allocations and depress asset prices. In this paper, I use data on commercial aircraft markets to empirically investigate whether trading frictions vary with the size of the asset market. Intuitively, it is more difficult to sell assets that have a thin market. As a result, firms find it optimal to hold on longer to assets with a thinner market in case their profitability rises in the future. Thus, when markets for firms' assets are thin, firms' average productivity and capacity utilization are lower, and the dispersions of productivity and of capacity utilization are higher. In turn, prices of assets with a thin market are, on average, lower and have a higher dispersion, since prices depend on firms' productivity and capacity utilization.The empirical analysis confirms that trading frictions vary with the size of the market, as aircraft with a thinner market have: 1) lower turnover; 2) lower capacity utilization; 3) higher dispersion of utilization levels; 4) lower mean prices; and 5) higher dispersion of transaction prices.

About half of new car transactions actually consist of two transactions, one in which the customer buys a new car from a dealer, and the other in which the customer sells his or her existing car to the dealer as a trade-in. At most dealerships, both the price of the new car and the price of the trade-in are negotiated. In such negotiations, as a general rule, car dealers are willing to trade off profits made on the new car versus profits made on the trade-in. To an economist, this suggests that the dealer may see the new car customer as the source of a certain amount of extractable profit—“one discriminatory rent”—that can be subdivided into two arbitrary buckets, the new car margin and the trade-in margin. Economic models of bargaining tend to use a similar paradigm, modeling the amount of total economic surplus created by the transaction, and supposing that each party will get a share of that surplus that is determined by the party’s bargaining power. It is usually recognized that there are multiple price mechanisms that could convey the same division of surplus to the two parties. If this is indeed a good description of how new car negotiations unfold, then an observer comparing a similar set of transactions should expect new car and trade-in profit margins to be negatively correlated. The better the deal the customer gets on a new car, the less good the deal one should expect the customer to get on the trade-in. An alternative view of this multicomponent negotiation is that customers or dealers—or competition and market structure

We examine the impacts of increased US gasoline taxes in a model that links the markets for new, used, and scrapped vehicles and recognizes the considerable heterogeneity among households and cars. Household choice parameters derive from an estimation procedure that integrates individual choices for car ownership and miles traveled. We find that each cent-per-gallon increase in the price of gasoline reduces the equilibrium gasoline consumption by about 0.2 percent. Taking account of revenue recycling, the impact of a 25-cent gasoline tax increase on the average household is about $30 per year (2001 dollars). Distributional impacts depend importantly on how additional revenues from the tax increase are recycled. (JEL D12, H22, H25, L62, L71)

A new data set facilitates study of learning spillovers in World War II shipbuilding. Our results contain two principal but contrasting themes. First, learning spillovers were a significant source of productivity growth, and may have contributed more than conventional learning effects. Second, the size of the learning externalities across yards, as measured by Spence's θ, were small. These findings, which are not mutually inconsistent, suggest an optimistic view of learning spillovers: they are a significant source of productivity growth, but the market failures induced by learning externalities may be modest. (JEL D24, N72, O3)

This paper introduces a new cost dataset for a commercial aircraft firm and uses this data to analyze the dynamics of learning in commercial aircraft production. This dataset is found to be inconsistent with the simple learning hypothesis, and particularly the prediction that a firm's unit cost must decline with its cumulative production. Instead, strong support is found for the hypothesis of organizational forgetting, a more general learning model where unit costs are similarly dependent on a firm's past production experience, but where that experience depreciates over time. Additionally, it is found that some, but not all, of a firm's production experience transfers from one generation of an aircraft to the next. This evidence adds to our understanding of productivity in industries with learning and thus has implications to many fields of economics.

We evaluate the voluntary export restraint (VER) that was initially placed on exports of automobiles from Japan in 1981. We evaluate the impact this policy had on U.S. consumer welfare, firm profits, and forgone tariff revenue from its initiation through 1990. (JEL F13)