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Epidemiologists often compare the observed number of deaths in a cohort with the expected number of deaths, obtained by multiplying person-time accrued in the cohort by mortality rates for a reference population (ideally, a reference that represents the mortality rate in the cohort in the absence of exposure). However, if exposure is hazardous (or salutary), this calculation will not consistently estimate the number of deaths expected in the absence of exposure because exposure will have affected the distribution of person-time observed in the study cohort. While problems with interpretation of this standard calculation of expected counts were discussed more than 2 decades ago, these discussions had little impact on epidemiologic practice. The logic of counterfactuals may help clarify this topic as we revisit these issues. In this paper, we describe a simple way to consistently estimate the expected number of deaths in such settings, and we illustrate the approach using data from a cohort study of mortality among underground miners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing prevalence of overweight and obesity among children is well documented, but prevalence estimates offer little insight into rates of transition to higher or lower body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)²) categories. We estimated the expected numbers of years children would live as normal weight, overweight, and obese by race/ ethnicity and sex, given rates of transition across BMI status levels. We used multistate life table methods and transition rates estimated from prospective cohort data (2007-2013) for Denver, Colorado, public schoolchildren aged 3-15 years. At age 3 years, normal-weight children could expect to live 11.1 of the following 13 years with normal weight status, and obese children could expect to live 9.8 years with obese status. At age 3 years, overweight children could expect to live 4.5 of the following 13 years with normal weight status, 5.1 years with overweight status, and 3.4 years with obese status. Whites and Asians lived more years at lower BMI status levels than did blacks or Hispanics; sex differences varied by race/ethnicity. Children who were normal weight or obese at age 3 years were relatively unlikely to move into a different BMI category by age 15 years. Overweight children are relatively likely to transition to normal weight or obese status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]