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In this paper, we advocate and expand upon a previously described monitoring strategy for efficient and robust estimation of disease prevalence and case numbers within closed and enumerated populations such as schools, workplaces, or retirement communities. The proposed design relies largely on voluntary testing, which is notoriously biased (e.g. in the case of coronavirus disease 2019) due to nonrepresentative sampling. The approach yields unbiased and comparatively precise estimates with no assumptions about factors underlying selection of individuals for voluntary testing, building on the strength of what can be a small random sampling component. This component enables the use of a recently proposed "anchor stream" estimator, a well-calibrated alternative to classical capture-recapture (CRC) estimators based on 2 data streams. We show that this estimator is equivalent to a direct standardization based on "capture," that is, selection (or not) by the voluntary testing program, made possible by means of a key parameter identified by design. This equivalency simultaneously allows for novel 2-stream CRC-like estimation of general mean values (e.g. means of continuous variables like antibody levels or biomarkers). For inference, we propose adaptations of Bayesian credible intervals when estimating case counts and bootstrapping when estimating means of continuous variables. We use simulations to demonstrate significant precision benefits relative to random sampling alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to update and validate the Pregnancy Physical Activity Questionnaire (PPAQ), using novel and innovative accelerometer and wearable camera measures in a free-living setting, to improve the measurement performance of this method for self-reporting physical activity. A prospective cohort of 50 eligible pregnant women were enrolled in early pregnancy (mean = 14.9 weeks' gestation). In early, middle, and late pregnancy, participants completed the updated PPAQ and, for 7 days, wore an accelerometer (GT3X-BT; ActiGraph, Pensacola, Florida) on the nondominant wrist and a wearable camera (Autographer; OMG Life (defunct)). At the end of the 7-day period, participants repeated the PPAQ. Spearman correlations between the PPAQ and accelerometer data ranged from 0.37 to 0.44 for total activity, 0.17 to 0.53 for moderate- to vigorous-intensity activity, 0.19 to 0.42 for light-intensity activity, and 0.23 to 0.45 for sedentary behavior. Spearman correlations between the PPAQ and wearable camera data ranged from 0.52 to 0.70 for sports/exercise and from 0.26 to 0.30 for transportation activity. Reproducibility scores ranged from 0.70 to 0.92 for moderate- to vigorous-intensity activity and from 0.79 to 0.91 for sports/exercise, and were comparable across other domains of physical activity. The PPAQ is a reliable instrument and a valid measure of a broad range of physical activities during pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiologic studies of low-frequency exposures or outcomes using metabolomics analyses of neonatal dried blood spots (DBS) often require assembly of samples with substantial differences in duration of storage. Independent assessment of stability of metabolites in archived DBS will enable improved design and interpretation of epidemiologic research utilizing DBS. Neonatal DBS routinely collected and stored as part of the California Genetic Disease Screening Program between 1983 and 2011 were used. The study population included 899 children without cancer before age 6 years, born in California. High-resolution metabolomics with liquid-chromatography mass spectrometry was performed, and the relative ion intensities of common metabolites and selected xenobiotic metabolites of nicotine (cotinine and hydroxycotinine) were evaluated. In total, we detected 26,235 mass spectral features across 2 separate chromatography methods (C18 hydrophobic reversed-phase chromatography and hydrophilic-interaction liquid chromatography). For most of the 39 metabolites related to nutrition and health status, we found no statistically significant annual trends across the years of storage. Nicotine metabolites were captured in the DBS with relatively stable intensities. This study supports the usefulness of DBS stored long-term for epidemiologic studies of the metabolome. -Omics-based information gained from DBS may also provide a valuable tool for assessing prenatal environmental exposures in child health research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate forecasts can inform response to outbreaks. Most efforts in influenza forecasting have focused on predicting influenza-like activity, with fewer on influenza-related hospitalizations. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate a super learner's predictions of 3 seasonal measures of influenza hospitalizations in the United States: peak hospitalization rate, peak hospitalization week, and cumulative hospitalization rate. We trained an ensemble machine learning algorithm on 15,000 simulated hospitalization curves and generated weekly predictions. We compared the performance of the ensemble (weighted combination of predictions from multiple prediction algorithms), the best-performing individual prediction algorithm, and a naive prediction (median of a simulated outcome distribution). Ensemble predictions performed similarly to the naive predictions early in the season but consistently improved as the season progressed for all prediction targets. The best-performing prediction algorithm in each week typically had similar predictive accuracy compared with the ensemble, but the specific prediction algorithm selected varied by week. An ensemble super learner improved predictions of influenza-related hospitalizations, relative to a naive prediction. Future work should examine the super learner's performance using additional empirical data on influenza-related predictors (e.g. influenza-like illness). The algorithm should also be tailored to produce prospective probabilistic forecasts of selected prediction targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO)-Wide Cohort Study (EWC), a collaborative research design comprising 69 cohorts in 31 consortia, was funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in 2016 to improve children's health in the United States. The EWC harmonizes extant data and collects new data using a standardized protocol, the ECHO-Wide Cohort Data Collection Protocol (EWCP). EWCP visits occur at least once per life stage, but the frequency and timing of the visits vary across cohorts. As of March 4, 2022, the EWC cohorts contributed data from 60,553 children and consented 29,622 children for new EWCP data and biospecimen collection. The median (interquartile range) age of EWCP-enrolled children was 7.5 years (3.7–11.1). Surveys, interviews, standardized examinations, laboratory analyses, and medical record abstraction are used to obtain information in 5 main outcome areas: pre-, peri-, and postnatal outcomes; neurodevelopment; obesity; airways; and positive health. Exposures include factors at the level of place (e.g. air pollution, neighborhood socioeconomic status), family (e.g. parental mental health), and individuals (e.g. diet, genomics). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]