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Objectives: Predicting severe acute pancreatitis (AP) remains a challenge. The present study compares admission blood urea nitrogen (BUN), hematocrit, and creatinine, as well as changes in their levels over 24 h, aiming to determine the most accurate laboratory test for predicting persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis., Methods: Clinical data of 1,612 AP patients, enrolled prospectively in three independent cohorts (University of Pittsburgh, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Dutch Pancreatitis Study Group), were abstracted. The predictive accuracy of the studied laboratories was measured using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. A pooled analysis was conducted to determine their impact on the risk for persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis. Finally, a classification tree was developed on the basis of the most accurate laboratory parameters., Results: Admission hematocrit ≥44% and rise in BUN at 24 h were the most accurate in predicting persistent organ failure (AUC: 0.67 and 0.71, respectively) and pancreatic necrosis (0.66 and 0.67, respectively), outperforming the other laboratory parameters and the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-II score. In a pooled analysis, admission hematocrit ≥44% and rise in BUN at 24 h were associated with an odds ratio of 3.54 and 5.84 for persistent organ failure, and 3.11 and 4.07, respectively, for pancreatic necrosis. In addition, the classification tree illustrated that when both admission hematocrit was ≥44% and BUN levels increased at 24 h, the rates of persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis reached 53.6% and 60.3%, respectively., Conclusions: Admission hematocrit ≥44% and rise in BUN at 24 h may be the optimal predictive tools in clinical practice among existing laboratory parameters and scoring systems.

Objectives: Peripancreatic necrosis determines clinical severity in acute pancreatitis. Early markers predicting peripancreatic necrosis and clinical severity are lacking. Because adipocytes of peripancreatic adipose tissue secret highly active adipocytokines, the aim of the study was to investigate whether adipocytokines are able to serve as early markers predicting peripancreatic necrosis and clinical severity., Methods: A total of 50 patients (20 women, 30 men) with acute pancreatitis were included in this noninterventional, prospective, and monocentric cohort study on diagnostic accuracy. Clinical severity was classified by the Ranson score and the APACHE (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation) II score. Pancreatic and peripancreatic necrosis were quantified by using the computed tomography-based Balthazar score, the Schroeder score, and the pancreatic necrosis score. Adiponectin, leptin, and resistin were measured at admission and daily for at least 10 days by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay., Results: In contrast to admission C-reactive protein values, admission resistin values were significantly correlated with clinical severity and even with clinical end points such as death and need for interventions. Admission resistin levels were significantly elevated in patients with higher pancreatic and extrapancreatic necrosis scores. It was shown by receiver-operator characteristics that admission resistin concentration provides a positive predictive value of 89% in predicting the extent of peripancreatic necrosis (area under the curve, 0.8; P=0.002; sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 70%) by using a cutoff value of 11.9 ng/ml., Conclusions: Admission resistin concentration serves as an early predictive marker of peripancreatic necrosis and clinical severity in acute pancreatitis. Resistin may have potential for clinical use as a new and diagnostic serum marker.

Objectives: Patients with severe acute pancreatitis (AP) typically develop vascular leak syndrome, resulting in hemoconcentration, hypotension, pulmonary edema, and renal insufficiency. Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) and 2 (Ang-2) are autocrine peptides that reduce or increase endothelial permeability, respectively. The aim of this study was to determine whether Ang-1 and/or Ang-2 levels are predictive biomarkers of persistent organ failure (>48 h) and prolonged hospital course., Methods: Banked serum from 28 patients enrolled in the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Study at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) and 58 controls was analyzed for Ang-1 and Ang-2 levels. Separately, serum from 123 patients and 103 controls at Greifswald University (GU), Germany was analyzed for Ang-2 levels. Angiopoietin levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay., Results: In all, 6 out of 28 UPMC patients (21%) and 14 out of 123 GU patients (13%) developed persistent organ failure and were classified as severe AP. Ang-2 was significantly higher on admission in patients who developed persistent organ failure compared with those who did not in UPMC (3,698 pg/ml vs. 1,001 pg/ml; P=0.001) and GU (4,945 pg/ml vs. 2,631 pg/ml; P=0.0004) cohorts. After data scaling, admission Ang-2 levels showed a receiver-operator curve of 0.81, sensitivity 90%, and specificity 67% in predicting persistent organ failure. In addition, Ang-2 levels remained significantly higher in severe AP compared with mild AP patients until day 7 (days 2-4: P<0.005; day 7: P<0.02). Ang-1 levels were not significantly different between mild and severe AP patients on admission., Conclusions: Elevated serum Ang-2 levels on admission are associated with and may be a useful biomarker of predicting persistent organ failure and ongoing endothelial cell activation in AP.

Objectives: High serum creatinine is a well-known unfavorable prognostic parameter in acute pancreatitis. Elevated creatinine at 48 h after admission was recently described as a marker for pancreatic necrosis. As pancreatic necrosis is a serious complication of acute pancreatitis and its identification by a simple single laboratory test would be very helpful, the aim of this study was to test that statement., Methods: In a prospective multicenter study of 462 patients with a first attack of acute pancreatitis, serum creatinine was determined on admission, and at 24 and 48 h thereafter, and compared with the findings of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) performed within 96 h of admission., Results: Pancreatic necrosis was present in 62 (13%) of the patients. Serum creatinine levels (abnormal > or = 2 mg/dl) on admission and after 24 and 48 h were evaluated vs. the presence or absence of pancreatic necrosis. Sensitivity rates varied between 14 and 23%, specificity between 95 and 97%, positive predictive values between 41 and 50%, and negative predictive values between 87 and 89%. Receiver operating characteristic curves revealed an area under the curve of between 0.604 and 0.669., Conclusions: An elevated serum creatinine concentration at any time during the first 48 h of admission is not a marker for pancreatic necrosis in a first attack of acute pancreatitis. If serum creatinine is normal, necrotizing pancreatitis is unlikely, and contrast-enhanced CT need not be performed unless complications occur and/or the patient's condition deteriorates.

Hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) is reported to cause 1-4% of acute pancreatitis (AP) episodes. HTG is also implicated in more than half of gestational pancreatitis cases. Disorders of lipoprotein metabolism are conventionally divided into primary (genetic) and secondary causes, including diabetes, hypothyroidism, and obesity. Serum triglyceride (TG) levels above 1,000 mg/dl are usually considered necessary to ascribe causation for AP. The mechanism for hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis (HTGP) is postulated to involve hydrolysis of TG by pancreatic lipase and release of free fatty acids that induce free radical damage. Multiple small studies on HTGP management have evaluated the use of insulin, heparin, or both. Many series have also reported use of apheresis to reduce TG levels. Subsequent control of HTG with dietary restrictions, antihyperlipidemic agents, and even regular apheresis has been shown anecdotally in case series to prevent future episodes of AP. However, large multicenter studies are needed to optimize future management guidelines for patients with HTGP.

Objectives: Pancreatic necrosis is a serious complication of acute pancreatitis. The identification of simple laboratory tests to detect subjects at risk of pancreatic necrosis may direct management and improve outcome. This study focuses on the association between routine laboratory tests and the development of pancreatic necrosis in patients with acute pancreatitis., Methods: In a cohort of 185 patients with acute pancreatitis prospectively enrolled in the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Study, patients with contrast-enhanced computerized tomography performed were selected (n=129). Serum hematocrit, creatinine, and urea nitrogen on admission and peak values within 48 h of admission were analyzed. The volume of intravenous fluid resuscitation was calculated for each patient., Results: Of 129 patients, 35 (27%) had evidence of pancreatic necrosis. Receiver operating characteristic curves for pancreatic necrosis revealed an area under the curve of 0.79 for admission hematocrit, 0.77 for peak creatinine, and 0.72 for peak urea nitrogen. Binary logistic regression yielded that all three tests were significantly associated with pancreatic necrosis (P<0.0001), with the highest odds ratio, 34.5, for peak creatinine. The volume of intravenous fluid resuscitation was similar in patients with and without necrosis. Low admission hematocrit (< or =44.8%) yielded a negative predictive value of 89%; elevated peak creatinine (>1.8 mg/dl) within 48 h yielded a positive predictive value of 93%., Conclusions: We confirm that a low admission hematocrit indicates a low risk of pancreatic necrosis (PNec) in patients with acute pancreatitis. In contrast, an increase in creatinine within the first 48 h is strongly associated with the development of PNec. This finding may have important clinical implications and warrants further investigation.