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Introduction: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) carries a poor prognosis, but earlier tumor detection would improve survival. We aimed to develop and externally validate a risk prediction model based on exposure to readily available risk factors to identify high-risk individuals of ESCC., Methods: Competing risk regression modeling was used to develop a risk prediction model. Individuals' absolute risk of ESCC during follow-up was computed with the cumulative incidence function. We used prospectively collected data from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) for model derivation and the UK Biobank cohort for validation. Candidate predictors were age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index (BMI), education, cohabitation, physical exercise, and employment. Model performance was validated internally and externally by evaluating model discrimination using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and model calibration., Results: The developed risk prediction model included age, sex, smoking, alcohol, and BMI. The AUC for 5-year risk of ESCC was 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.93) in the derivation cohort and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.75) in the validation cohort. The calibration showed close agreement between the predicted cumulative risk and observed probabilities of developing ESCC. Higher net benefit was observed when applying the risk prediction model than considering all participants as being at high risk, indicating good clinical usefulness. A web tool for risk calculation was developed: https://sites.google.com/view/escc-ugis-ki., Discussion: This ESCC risk prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration and validated well in an independent cohort. This readily available model can help select high-risk individuals for preventive interventions.

Objectives: Sex hormones have been hypothesized to explain the strong male predominance in esophageal adenocarcinoma, but evidence is needed. This study examined how circulating sex hormone levels influence future risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma., Methods: This case-control study was nested in a prospective Norwegian cohort (Janus Serum Bank Cohort), including 244 male patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and 244 male age-matched control participants. Associations between prediagnostic circulating levels of 12 sex hormones and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma were assessed using conditional logistic regression. In addition, a random-effect meta-analysis combined these data with a similar prospective study for 5 sex hormones., Results: Decreased odds ratios (ORs) of esophageal adenocarcinoma were found comparing the highest with lowest quartiles of testosterone (OR = 0.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.22-0.88), testosterone:estradiol ratio (OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.72), and luteinizing hormone (OR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.30-0.98), after adjustment for tobacco smoking and physical activity. These associations were attenuated after further adjustment for body mass index (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.27-1.13 for testosterone; OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.91 for testosterone:estradiol ratio; OR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.29-1.08 for luteinizing hormone). No associations were observed for sex hormone-binding globulin, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, follicle-stimulating hormone, prolactin, 17-OH progesterone, progesterone, androstenedione, or free testosterone index. The meta-analysis showed an inverse association between testosterone levels and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (pooled OR for the highest vs lowest quartile = 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.97), whereas no associations were identified for androstenedione, sex hormone-binding globulin, estradiol, or testosterone:estradiol ratio., Discussion: Higher circulating testosterone levels may decrease the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma in men.

Objectives: Esophageal cancer is a highly fatal malignant neoplasm, with 2 etiologically different histological types. A large prospective study is expected to elucidate the specific risk of the 90% subtype of esophageal cancer, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), with metformin therapy. This study aims to determine the association between metformin use and incident ESCC risk., Methods: This was a nationwide population-based prospective cohort study conducted in Sweden in 2005-2015. Among 8.4 million participants identified in the cohort, 411,603 (5%) were metformin users. The users were compared with 10 times as many frequency-matched nonusers of metformin (n = 4,116,030) by age and sex. Metformin use was treated as a time-varying variate, and multivariable cause-specific proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ESCC, adjusted for age, sex, calendar year, residence area, tobacco smoking, alcohol overconsumption, and use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or statins., Results: The incidence rates of ESCC were 3.5 per 100,000 person-years among the metformin users and 5.3 per 100,000 person-years in the nonusers. Metformin users overall were at a decreased risk of ESCC compared with nonusers (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54-0.85). The decrease in risk was more pronounced in new metformin users (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28-0.64) and participants aged 60-69 years (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.31-0.66)., Discussion: Metformin use decreases the risk of developing ESCC.

Objectives: Unselected screening for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is not justified due to the low absolute risk in the general population. This study aimed to evaluate a risk prediction model in identifying high-risk individuals who might be considered for targeted screening., Methods: A population-based cohort of 62,576 participants was recruited in 1995-1997 in Nord-Trøndelag County, Norway (HUNT) and followed up until 31 December 2015. A model for predicting individuals' absolute risk of OAC was developed using competing-risk regression. The Lorenz curve was used to assess the concentration of OAC patients in high-risk individuals and the feasibility of targeted screening based on individual risk assessment., Results: During 1,085,137 person-years of follow-up, 29 incident cases of OAC occurred. The model included risk factors for OAC, in which male sex, older age, gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms, obesity, and tobacco smoking predicted higher risk of OAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 10-year risk of OAC was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.57-0.85) and for 15-year risk was 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.91) after 10-fold cross-validation, with good agreements between observed and predicted risks. The Lorenz curve indicated that 33% of all OAC cases would have occurred in the 5% of the population with the highest risks within 15 years, and 61% of all cases in the top 10% of the population., Conclusions: Individual risk assessment based on known risk factors for OAC has the potential to identify a selected high-risk group of individuals who may benefit from screening for early detection.