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Understanding the relationship between ENDS use and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and other respiratory conditions is critical. However, most previous studies have not fully adjusted for cigarette smoking history. Using Waves 1–5 of the U.S. Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study, the association between ENDS use and self-reported incident COPD was examined among adults aged 40+ years using discrete-time survival models. Current ENDS use was measured as a time-varying covariate, lagged by 1 wave, defined as established daily or some days of use. Multivariable models were adjusted for baseline demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education), health characteristics (asthma, obesity, exposure to second-hand smoke), and smoking history (smoking status and cigarette pack years). Data were collected between 2013 and 2019, and the analysis was conducted in 2021–2022. Incident COPD was self-reported by 925 respondents during the 5-year follow-up. Before adjusting for other covariates, time-varying ENDS use appeared to double COPD incidence risk (hazard ratio=1.98, 95% CI=1.44, 2.74). However, ENDS use was no longer associated with COPD (adjusted hazard ratio=1.10, 95% CI=0.78, 1.57) after adjusting for current cigarette smoking and cigarette pack years. ENDS use did not significantly increase the risk of self-reported incident COPD over a 5-year period once current smoking status and cigarette pack years were included. Cigarette pack years, by contrast, remained associated with a net increase in COPD incidence risk. These findings highlight the importance of using prospective longitudinal data and adequately controlling for cigarette smoking history to assess the independent health effects of ENDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the U.S., low-income individuals generally smoke more than high-income individuals. However, detailed information about how smoking patterns differ by income, especially differences by birth cohort, is lacking. Using the National Health Interview Survey 1983–2018 data, individual family income was calculated as a ratio of the federal poverty level. Missing income data from 1983 to 1996 were imputed using sequential regression multivariate imputation. Age‒period‒cohort models with constrained natural splines were used to estimate annual probabilities of smoking initiation and cessation and smoking prevalence and intensity by gender and birth cohort (1900–2000) for 5 income groups: <100%, 100%–199%, 200%–299%, 300%–399%, and ≥400% of the federal poverty level. Analysis was conducted in 2020–2021. Across all income groups, smoking prevalence and initiation probabilities are decreasing by birth cohort, whereas cessation probabilities are increasing. However, relative differences between low- and high-income groups are increasing markedly, such that there were greater declines in prevalence among those in high-income groups in more recent cohorts. Smoking initiation probabilities are lowest in the ≥400% federal poverty level group for males across birth cohorts, whereas for females, this income group has the highest initiation probabilities in older cohorts but the lowest in recent cohorts. People living below the federal poverty level have the lowest cessation probabilities across cohorts. Smoking prevalence has been decreasing in all income groups; however, disparities in smoking by family income are widening in recent birth cohorts. Future studies evaluating smoking disparities should account for cohort differences. Intervention strategies should focus on reducing initiation and improving quit success among low-income groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ENDS use is highly prevalent among U.S. youth, and there is concern about its respiratory health effects. However, evidence from nationally representative longitudinal data is limited. Using youth (aged 12–17 years) data from Waves 1–5 (2013–2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, multilevel Poisson regression models were estimated to examine the association between ENDS use; cigarettes; and diagnosed bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough. Current product use was lagged by 1 wave and categorized as (1) never/noncurrent use, (2) exclusive cigarette use, (3) exclusive ENDS use, and (4) dual ENDS/cigarette use. Multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity; parental education; asthma; BMI; cannabis use; secondhand smoke exposure; and household use of combustible products. Data analysis was conducted in 2022–2023. A total of 7.4% of respondents were diagnosed with bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough at follow-up. In the multivariable model, exclusive cigarette use (incident rate ratio=1.85, 95% CI=1.29, 2.65), exclusive ENDS use (incident rate ratio=1.49, 95% CI=1.06, 2.08), and dual use (incident rate ratio=2.70, 95% CI=1.61, 3.50) were associated with a higher risk of diagnosed bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough than never/noncurrent use. These results suggest that ENDS and cigarettes, used exclusively or jointly, increased the risk of diagnosed bronchitis, pneumonia, or chronic cough among U.S. youth. However, dual use was associated with the highest risk. Targeted policies aimed at continuing to reduce cigarette smoking and ENDS use among youth, especially among those with dual use, are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to study smoking patterns can be applied to tackle important issues in tobacco control and public health. This paper summarizes the analyses of smoking patterns in the U.S. by race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and family income and for each of the 50 U.S. states using the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort approach. We describe how decision makers, policy advocates, and researchers can use the sociodemographic analyses in this supplement to project state smoking trends and develop effective state-level tobacco control strategies. The all-cause mortality RR estimates associated with smoking for U.S. race/ethnicity and education groups are also discussed in the context of research that measures and evaluates health disparities. Finally, the application of the CISNET Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to Brazil is reviewed with a view to how the same types of analyses can be applied to other low- and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

U.S. smoking prevalence varies greatly by race/ethnicity. However, little is known about how smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity vary by birth cohort and race/ethnicity. Adult smoking data were obtained from the 1978–2018 National Health Interview Surveys. Age‒period‒cohort models with constrained natural splines were developed to estimate historical smoking patterns among non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander, and non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaskan Native individuals. Annual smoking prevalence and probabilities of smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity by age, year, gender, and race/ethnicity were estimated for the 1900 to 2000 birth cohorts. Analysis was conducted in 2020–2021. Smoking initiation probabilities were highest for the American Indian and Alaskan Native population, second highest among the non-Hispanic White population, and lowest among Asian and Pacific Islander and Hispanic populations across birth cohorts. Historically, initiation probabilities among non-Hispanic Black populations were comparable with those among non-Hispanic White populations but have decreased since the 1970 birth cohort. Cessation probabilities were lowest among American Indian and Alaskan Native and non-Hispanic Black populations and highest among non-Hispanic White and Asian and Pacific Islander populations across cohorts and ages. Initiation and cessation probabilities produce observed patterns of smoking where prevalence among American Indian and Alaskan Native populations is highest across all ages and cohorts. Across cohorts, smoking prevalence among non-Hispanic Black populations, particularly males, is lower than among non-Hispanic White populations at younger ages but higher at older ages. There are important and persistent racial/ethnic differences in smoking prevalence, initiation, cessation, and intensity across U.S. birth cohorts. Targeted interventions should address widening smoking disparities by race/ethnicity, particularly for American Indian and Alaskan Native and non-Hispanic Black populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smoking rates across U.S. states have declined at different rates over time because some states have progressive tobacco control policies, whereas others have yet to adopt them. Therefore, each state has its own unique historical experience of smoking initiation, cessation, and prevalence. This study characterizes smoking histories for each U.S. state by birth cohort. Using 1965–2018 National Health Interview Survey and 1992–2019 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey data, statistical methods applied an age‒period‒cohort modeling framework to reconstruct population-level smoking histories for each state. Smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity by age, gender, and cohort were estimated for each state. These were used to construct state-specific trends in the prevalence of current, former, and never smoking as well as the mean smoking duration and pack years. Analysis was conducted from 2017 to 2022. California and Kentucky, respectively, are exemplar states of more and less aggressive tobacco control. Initiation probabilities were consistently lower in California than in Kentucky, and cessation probabilities were higher. Hence, the smoking prevalence derived from these parameters is higher in Kentucky. The intensity of cigarette smoking was higher in Kentucky than in California, yielding considerably higher estimated pack years when used with the other parameters. Summaries of smoking trends are given for all states. Smoking initiation, cessation, and intensity trends vary substantially across states, resulting in major differences in estimated smoking prevalence, duration, and pack years. Some states show improvements in smoking metrics over time with more recent birth cohorts, but others have shown very little. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about how U.S. smoking patterns of initiation, cessation, and intensity vary by birth cohort across education levels or how these patterns may be driven by other demographic characteristics. Smoking data for adults aged ≥25 years was obtained from the National Health Interview Surveys 1966–2018. Age-period-cohort models were developed to estimate the probabilities of smoking initiation, cessation, intensity, and prevalence by age, cohort, calendar year, and gender for education levels: ≤8th grade, 9th–11th grade, high school graduate or GED, some college, and college degree or above. Further analyses were conducted to identify the demographic factors (race/ethnicity and birthplace) that may explain the smoking patterns by education. Analyses were conducted in 2020–2021. Smoking disparities by education have increased by birth cohort. In recent cohorts, initiation probabilities were highest among individuals with 9th–11th-grade education and lowest among individuals with at least a college degree. Cessation probabilities were higher among those with higher education. Current smoking prevalence decreased over time across all education groups, with important differences by gender. However, it decreased more rapidly among individuals with ≤8th grade education, resulting in this group having the second lowest prevalence in recent cohorts. This may be driven by the increasing proportion of non-U.S. born Hispanics in this group. Although smoking is decreasing by cohort across all education groups, disparities in smoking behaviors by education have widened in recent cohorts. Demographic changes for the ≤8th-grade education group need special consideration in analyses of tobacco use by education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: A better understanding of how menthol cigarette flavoring and ENDS impact smoking initiation, cessation, and transitions between tobacco products could help elucidate the potential impact of a U.S. menthol ban on combustible tobacco products.Methods: A multistate transition model was applied to data on 23,232 adults from Waves 1-4 (2013-2017) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (analysis was conducted in 2020-2021). Transition rates among never, noncurrent, nonmenthol versus menthol cigarette, ENDS, and dual everyday/someday use were estimated, as were transition-specific hazard ratios for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and income.Results: Non-Hispanic Blacks who smoked menthol discontinued smoking at a much lower rate than those who smoked nonmenthol (hazard ratio=0.43, 95% CI=0.29, 0.64), but there was no statistically significant difference in the discontinuation rates among non-Hispanic Whites (hazard ratio=0.97, 95% CI=0.80, 1.16) or Hispanics (hazard ratio=0.81, 95% CI=0.56, 1.16). Non-Hispanic Whites who smoked menthol were more likely to become dual users than those who smoked nonmenthol (hazard ratio=1.43, 95% CI=1.14, 1.80). Young adults initiated menthol smoking at a higher rate than older adults (age 18-24 years versus ≥55 years: hazard ratio=2.45, 95% CI=1.44, 4.15) but not nonmenthol smoking (hazard ratio=1.02, 95% CI=0.62, 1.69). There were differences by sex in the impact of menthol flavor on smoking initiation and discontinuation but little difference by education or income.Conclusions: Sociodemographic differences in product transitions should be accounted for when estimating the potential impact of a menthol ban. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: This study examines whether smoke-free laws are differentially associated with youth smoking outcomes by parental education, race/ethnicity, sex, and college plans in a U.S.Sample: Methods: This study assessed the relationships between smoke-free laws in workplaces and hospitality venues (restaurants/bars) and past 30-day smoking participation, first cigarette initiation, and daily smoking initiation within a repeated cross-sectional sample of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders from the Monitoring the Future study. Data were collected between 2001 and 2018 and were analyzed in 2020-2021. Grade-stratified Poisson models were used to calculate prevalence ratios and average marginal effects, incorporating interaction terms to examine differential associations across groups.Results: Hospitality smoke-free laws were significantly associated with lower probabilities of smoking participation in all grades as well as with first cigarette and daily smoking initiation in 8th and 10th grade. Workplace smoke-free laws were associated with lower probabilities of smoking participation among 10th and 12th graders as well as with first cigarette and daily smoking initiation among 10th graders. Average marginal effects ranged from -0.4 percentage points (hospitality laws and daily smoking initiation in 8th and 10th grades) to -2.2 percentage points (workplace laws and smoking participation in 10th grade). Associations between smoke-free laws and a lower probability of smoking participation were most pronounced among students who definitely planned to attend college. Other instances of effect modification suggested more pronounced associations for students who were female and from high-SES households; however, relationships varied by grade.Conclusions: Smoke-free laws were associated with reduced smoking among youth; however, associations varied by grade, sex, parental education, and college plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]