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In many animals, exposure to cues in a natal habitat increases disperser preferences for those cues (natal habitat preference induction [NHPI]), but the proximate and ultimate bases for this phenomenon are obscure. We developed a Bayesian model to study how different types of experience in the natal habitat and survival to the age/stage of dispersal interact to affect a disperser's estimate of the quality of new natal-type habitats. The model predicts that the types of experience a disperser had before leaving its natal habitat will affect the attractiveness of cues from new natal-type habitats and that favorable experiences will increase the level of preference for natal-type habitats more than unfavorable experiences will decrease it. An experimental study of NHPI in Drosophila melanogaster provided with "good" and "bad" experiences in their natal habitats supports these predictions while also indicating that the effects of different types of natal experience on NHPI vary across genotypes. If habitat preferences are modulated by an individual's experience before dispersal as described in this study, then NHPI may have stronger effects on sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, conservation biology, and pest management than previously supposed.