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Early-stage lung cancer is crucial clinically due to its insidious nature and rapid progression. Most of the prediction models designed to predict tumour recurrence in the early stage of lung cancer rely on the clinical or medical history of the patient. However, their performance could likely be improved if the input patient data contained genomic information. Unfortunately, such data is not always collected. This is the main motivation of our work, in which we have imputed and integrated specific type of genomic data with clinical data to increase the accuracy of machine learning models for prediction of relapse in early-stage, non-small cell lung cancer patients. Using a publicly available TCGA lung adenocarcinoma cohort of 501 patients, their aneuploidy scores were imputed into similar records in the Spanish Lung Cancer Group (SLCG) data, more specifically a cohort of 1348 early-stage patients. First, the tumor recurrence in those patients was predicted without the imputed aneuploidy scores. Then, the SLCG data were enriched with the aneuploidy scores imputed from TCGA. This integrative approach improved the prediction of the relapse risk, achieving area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) score of 0.74, and area under the ROC (ROC-AUC) score of 0.79. Using the prediction explanation model SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), we further explained the predictions performed by the machine learning model. We conclude that our explainable predictive model is a promising tool for oncologists that addresses an unmet clinical need of post-treatment patient stratification based on the relapse risk, while also improving the predictive power by incorporating proxy genomic data not available for the actual specific patients., (©2022 AMIA - All rights reserved.)

Early detection and mitigation of disease recurrence in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients is a nontrivial problem that is typically addressed either by rather generic follow-up screening guidelines, self-reporting, simple nomograms, or by models that predict relapse risk in individual patients using statistical analysis of retrospective data. We posit that machine learning models trained on patient data can provide an alternative approach that allows for more efficient development of many complementary models at once, superior accuracy, less dependency on the data collection protocols and increased support for explainability of the predictions. In this preliminary study, we describe an experimental suite of various machine learning models applied on a patient cohort of 2442 early stage NSCLC patients. We discuss the promising results achieved, as well as the lessons we learned while developing this baseline for further, more advanced studies in this area., (©2021 AMIA - All rights reserved.)