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Background and Aims: Low-altitude mountains constitute important centres of diversity in landscapes with little topographic variation, such as the Southwest Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). They also provide unique climatic and edaphic conditions that may allow them to function as refugia. We investigate whether the Porongurups (altitude 655 m) in the SWAFR will provide a refugium for the endemic Ornduffia calthifolia and O. marchantii under forecast climate change., Methods: We used species distribution modelling based on WorldClim climatic data, 30-m elevation data and a 2-m-resolution LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) to predict current and future distributions of the Ornduffia species at local and regional scales based on 605 field-based abundance estimates. Future distributions were forecast using RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 projections. To determine whether local edaphic and biotic factors impact these forecasts, we tested whether soil depth and vegetation height were significant predictors of abundance using generalized additive models (GAMs)., Key Results: Species distribution modelling revealed the importance of elevation and topographic variables at the local scale for determining distributions of both species, which also preferred shadier locations and higher slopes. However, O. calthifolia occurred at higher (cooler) elevations with rugged, concave topography, while O. marchantii occurred in disturbed sites at lower locations with less rugged, convex topography. Under future climates both species are likely to severely contract under the milder RCP2.6 projection (approx. 2 °C of global warming), but are unlikely to persist if warming is more severe (RCP4.5). GAMs showed that soil depth and vegetation height are important predictors of O. calthifolia and O. marchantii distributions, respectively., Conclusions: The Porongurups constitute an important refugium for O. calthifolia and O. marchantii, but limits to this capacity may be reached if global warming exceeds 2 °C. This capacity is moderated at local scales by biotic and edaphic factors., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

BackgroundRefugia are island-like habitats that are linked to long-term environmental stability and, as a result, high endemism. Conservation of refugia and endemism hotspots should be based on a deep ecological and evolutionary understanding of their functioning, which remains limited. Although functional traits can provide such insights, a corresponding, coherent framework is lacking.Proposed frameworkPlant communities in refugia and endemism hotspots should, due to long-term environmental stability, display unique functional characteristics linked to distinct phylogenetic patterns. Therefore, such communities should be characterized by a functional signature that exhibits: (1) distinct values and combinations of traits, (2) higher functional diversity and (3) a prevalence of similar traits belonging to more distantly related lineages inside, compared to outside, of endemism hotspots and refugia. While the limited functional trait data available from refugia and endemism hotspots do not allow these predictions to be tested rigorously, three potential applications of the functional signature in biogeography and conservation planning are highlighted. Firstly, it allows the functional characteristics of endemism hotspots and refugia to be identified. Secondly, the strength of the functional signature can be compared among these entities, and with the surrounding landscape, to provide an estimate of the capacity of endemism hotspots and refugia to buffer environmental changes. Finally, the pattern of the functional signature can reveal ecological and evolutionary processes driving community assembly and functioning, which can assist in predicting the effect of environmental changes (e.g. climate, land-use) on communities in endemism hotspots and refugia.ConclusionThe proposed functional signature concept allows the systematic integration of plant functional traits and phylogeny into the study of endemism hotspots and refugia, but more data on functional traits in these entities are urgently needed. Overcoming this limitation would facilitate rigorous testing of the proposed predictions for the functional signature, advancing the eco-evolutionary understanding of endemism hotspots and refugia.