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• FuturES framework optimises electricity scenarios with high renewables penetration. • Reservoir and concentrating solar power modelled based on storage value. • Feasible scenarios created with 81–100% renewables by 2050. • Long-term energy storage helps to achieve low electricity costs. Although electricity supply is still dominated by fossil fuels, it is expected that renewable sources will have a much larger contribution in the future due to the need to mitigate climate change. Therefore, this paper presents a new framework for developing Future Electricity Scenarios (FuturES) with high penetration of renewables. A multi-period linear programming model has been created for power-system expansion planning. This has been coupled with an economic dispatch model, PowerGAMA, to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of the developed scenarios while matching supply and demand. Application of FuturES is demonstrated through the case of Chile which has ambitious plans to supply electricity using only renewable sources. Four cost-optimal scenarios have been developed for the year 2050 using FuturES: two Business as usual (BAU) and two Renewable electricity (RE) scenarios. The BAU scenarios are unconstrained in terms of the technology type and can include all 11 options considered. The RE scenarios aim to have only renewables in the mix, including storage. The results show that both BAU scenarios have a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than, or equal to, today's costs ($72.7–77.3 vs $77.6/MWh) and include 81–90% of renewables. The RE scenarios are slightly more expensive than today's costs ($81–87/MWh). The cumulative investment for the BAU scenarios is $123-$145 bn, compared to $147-$157 bn for the RE. The annual investment across the scenarios is estimated at $4.0 ± 0.4 bn. Both RE scenarios show sufficient flexibility in matching supply and demand, despite solar photovoltaics and wind power contributing around half of the total supply. Therefore, the FuturES framework is a powerful tool for aiding the design of cost-efficient power systems with high penetration of renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rising threat of climate change, green hydrogen is increasingly seen as the high-capacity energy storage and transport medium of the future. This creates an opportunity for low- and middle-income countries to leverage their high renewable energy potential to produce, use, and export low-cost green hydrogen, creating environmental and economic development benefits. While identifying ideal locations for green hydrogen production is critical for countries when defining their green hydrogen strategies, there has been a paucity of adequate geospatial planning approaches suitable to low- and middle-income countries. It is essential for these countries to identify green hydrogen production sites which match demand to expected use cases such that their strategies are economically sustainable. This paper therefore develops a novel geospatial cost modelling method to optimize the location of green hydrogen production across different use cases, with a focus on suitability to low- and middle-income countries. This method is applied in Kenya to investigate the potential hydrogen supply chain for three use cases: ammonia-based fertilizer, freight transport, and export. We find hydrogen production costs of €3.7–9.9/kg H 2 are currently achievable across Kenya, depending on the production location chosen. The cheapest production locations are identified to the south and south-east of Lake Turkana. We show that ammonia produced in Kenya can be cost-competitive given the current energy crisis and that Kenya could export hydrogen to Rotterdam with costs of €7/kg H 2 , undercutting current market prices regardless of the carrier medium. With expected techno-economic improvements, hydrogen production costs across Kenya could drop to €1.8–3.0/kg H 2 by 2030. [Display omitted] • We develop a novel GIS method to identify least-cost green hydrogen production locations. • This is applied in Kenya for ammonia, freight transport, and export use cases. • Hydrogen production costs of €3.7–9.9/kg H 2 are currently achievable in Kenya. • The cheapest production locations are to the south/south-east of Lake Turkana. • Kenya could export hydrogen and undercut current market prices with any carrier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]