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The integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind, solar, batteries, etc. into the grid presents opportunities as well as challenges with regard to efficient coordination and trading. Virtual power plants (VPPs) have emerged as an important paradigm for aggregating and managing numerous DERs. This paper proposes a decentralized blockchain-based peer-to-peer (P2P) multilayer energy trading framework to facilitate optimized coordination of DERs within a VPP context. A control center, prosumers, and service operators constitute the model's multi-layered architecture. Profits from feed-in tariffs, ancillary services, and P2P sales are optimized for revenue while expenses are minimized using a mixed-integer linear programming formulation. Smart contracts enable prosumers to trade energy units in the Ethereum blockchain with ease via a participatory web platform. The effectiveness of the framework in synchronizing power supply and demand within the VPP by coordinating the charging and discharging of storage systems in accordance with consumption patterns is demonstrated through performance evaluation. In contrast to conventional centralized architectures, the proposed framework utilized decentralized architecture efficiently consolidates and optimizes distributed energy resources (DERs) to improve grid stability and renewable energy utilization. [Display omitted] • A novel multi-layer framework for peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading, within VPP. • An interactive web-based trading platform using the Ethereum blockchain to facilitate exchange of energy units. • Implementation of MILP-based DER management model for optimal trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting energy demand has become increasingly important due to technological advances, especially new power systems and population growth. Accurate predictions of energy demand and supply are crucial for academics and policymakers. Also, energy consumption is non-stationary and dynamic in time, requiring an adaptive forecasting algorithm. This paper presents a new adaptive hybrid approach for energy time series forecasting using statistical methods. Some of the most popular energy demand time series applications are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm, which covers a wide range of critical energy demand forecasting situations at various scales. The paper's objectives are presented in three phases. In Phase I, ARFIMA is used to forecast the entire original time series as a statistical inspector and later for comparison. Although ARFIMA's fractionality feature helps to capture long and short-term memory behavior in time series, to be more adaptive and become close to a nonlinear algorithm that can handle non-stationarity, and Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series closely, a novel dynamic statistical structural break detection framework is developed, and used in phase II to identify the time series' change points and associated time indexes. Since time series are partitioned based on structural change detections, they approach one in terms of the Hurst exponent and exhibit pure long memory, which is ideal for ARFIMA modeling. Phase III captures non-stationary statistical properties and memory characteristics by applying adaptive ARFIMA modeling to segmented time series. Finally, the predicted partitions are concatenated. Various performance assessment metrics, e.g., Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), tested on the final achieved results show that the proposed adaptive algorithm outperforms the forecasting capabilities of the existing algorithms on the same energy demand time series used in the current paper. MAPE of the proposed approach for the four utilized real-life cases are 1.72%, 1.35%, 0.22%, and 4.4%, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model is a satisfactory method for energy demand forecasting due to its high accuracy. • A novel adaptive hybrid algorithm is developed for energy demand forecasting. • The prediction system uses ARFIMA and a novel dynamic structural break detection framework. • The adaptive prediction method can forecast energy demand with high accuracy. • The structural break detection works dynamically, allowing ARFIMA to be adaptive. • The prediction method captures the energy time series' nonstationary statistical features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the realm of economic scheduling and optimal operation within integrated energy systems, integrated energy load aggregation plays a pivotal role. Accurate prediction of integrated energy load aggregation enables the refined management of energy resources, thereby enhancing energy utilization efficiency. This paper merges the advantages of clustering algorithms, prediction algorithms and ensemble learning to propose a short-term prediction approach for integrated energy load aggregation. Firstly, the intrinsic distribution of energy consumption data is analyzed through Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering with multi-dimensional similarity. This analysis yields the division of all samples into clusters based on data characteristics. Subsequently, the Transfer entropy is harnessed to conduct correlation analysis within each cluster. For constructing predictive models for each individual cluster, a prediction algorithm based on the Feature-Temporal Attention-enhanced Bi-directional Simple Recurrent Unit (FTA-Bi-SRU) is employed. The Dynamic Weight Average (DWA)-based multi-task loss equilibrium and Multi-Term Adam (MTAdam) loss function are combined to enhance the efficiency of the forecasting model. Finally, a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model with Bayesian optimization is employed to integrate the predictive outcomes of each individual cluster to generate the overall predictive outcomes for integrated energy load aggregation. The proposed methodology is experimented on real-world energy consumption data to ascertain the efficacy of the prediction method. The experimental results substantiate the superiority of the suggested forecasting approach. • This marks the inaugural discussion of load forecasting for integrated energy load aggregation is discussed. • A multi-dimensional similarity Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering algorithm is introduced to group multi-energy users. • A method based on transfer entropy for correlation analysis is presented. • An Feature-Temporal Attention based Bi-directional Simple Recurrent Unit (FTA-Bi-SRU) prediction model is introduced. • A Bayes-optimized Light Gradient Boosting Machine (BO-LightGBM) ensemble framework is proposed to enhance overall prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]