Search

The so-called post-China countries (PC-16́s), distinguished by low wages and high economic growth, will replace China as the “world’s factory”. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of these changes on global CO 2 emissions pathways. To achieve this, a counterfactual is proposed wherein China’s trade with the rest of the world is replaced by the PC-16’s trade in a global multiregional input–output context. The emissions savings realized by trade replacement are significant in those scenarios where the current pattern of trade is maintained (−13% on emissions traded and −3.5% on global emissions) and in scenarios where enterprises relocate their production directly or indirectly to the most environmentally efficient countries (ranging from −15.2% to −18.2% on emissions embodied in trade). Nevertheless, the potential savings drop considerably (ranging from −1.5% to −7.1%) if companies and host countries take advantage of cheaper, but more polluting means of production and do not internalize the externalities. Through changes in international trade, there is a possibility of reducing emissions, which have to be included in international, multilateral and bilateral agreements to mitigate climate change if we do not want to lose the opportunities these changes present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Facing serious energy constraints and environmental challenges, policy makers in China have set up clear targets to reduce energy intensity in order to secure a sustainable economic growth; however, it is unclear in theory what the determining forces are. The empirical evidence, although intensively discussed in the literature, also remain divided in opinion. This paper contributes to the existing literature full of heated debates using a Bayesian averaging approach to identify robust determinants of energy intensity in China. Using provincial level data, key contributors that help explain the level of energy intensity across China are found. By ranking the relative importance of explanatory variables according to their posterior inclusion probabilities, this study can also offer support to policy makers in designing intensity reduction policies. It is suggested that policies should focus on those robust and relatively more important factors such as fiscal expenditure, infrastructure and economic structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current mode of economic development in China is typified by high growth, high energy consumption, and high pollution characteristics and this has caused great stress on both energy consumption and the environment. This paper focuses on a historical analysis of China’s energy, environmental, and economic (‘E3’) efficiency and the sources of E3 productivity growth therein. A developed slacks-based measure is utilized to evaluate the performance of E3 efficiency and decompose the performance fluctuations into three components: energy, economy, and environmental efficiency fluctuations. By applying a method based on global data envelopment analysis, we also analyze the key factors responsible for the change in E3 productivity during 2002–11 from the point of view of technical progress, production scale, and management level. The results show that China performs well on the economic front, while the energy and environmental performances are not optimistic. Fortunately, energy and environmental efficiency have gradually improved in recent years. Further analysis shows that the trend in E3 productivity in China has begun to follow an ascending path. Technical progress is the most powerful contributor to China’s E3 productivity growth, while falling scale and management efficiency are the two main obstacles preventing improvement in E3 productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]