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This paper attempts to explore carbon tax pilot in Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations based on a novel energy-saving and emission-reduction (ESER) system with carbon tax constraints, which has not yet been discussed in present literature. A novel carbon tax attractor is achieved through the discussion of the dynamic behavior of the new system. Based on the genetic algorithm-back propagation neural network, the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified. The scenario analysis results show that, under the same tax rate and constraint conditions, the ESER system in YRD urban agglomerations is superior to the average case in China, in which the impacts on economic growth are almost the same. The former’s energy intensity is lower and the shock resistance is stronger. It is found that economic property of YRD urban agglomerations is the main cause for the ESER system of YRD urban agglomerations being superior. In the current YRD urban agglomerations’ ESER system, energy intensity cannot be adjusted to an ideal level by commercialization management and government control; however, it is under effective control of carbon tax incentives. Therefore, strengthening the economic property of YRD urban agglomerations and effective utilization of carbon tax incentives could perfectly control energy intensity, without obvious potential negative impact on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Along with rapid development of economy, urbanization and industrialization in China, the transportation sector especially road transport accounts for the quickest growth of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the country. This paper selects four representative cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chongqing) in the north, east, south, and west of China as targets of case study. It predicts future motor vehicle population in various cities using the Gompertz Model, and predicts and analyzes fuel consumption and GHG emissions of different types of motor vehicles in the case cities by 2035. The results indicate that besides gasoline and diesel, in the future uses of various types of vehicle fuels will follow different patterns among these four cities due to diverse resources endowment, economic strength, technology levels and geographical features. Based on predicted vehicle population and fuel consumption, it is found that from 2013 to 2035, GHG emissions from tank to wheel (TTW) and well to wheel (WTW) in all cities will continuously increase yet at different rates. If there is no interference from new policies, around 2020 Chongqing is expected to replace Beijing as the city with the highest volume of GHG emissions of vehicles among four case study cities. Therefore, the four cities especially Chongqing need urgently to develop or adjust low-carbon policies in road transportation sector, in order to achieve China’s future greenhouse gas reduction targets. Some policy implications to reduce GHG emissions of the road transportation sectors of the case cities are suggested based on the analysis results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]