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In this paper, we explore two strategies for reducing the cash flow uncertainty of wind energy producers ascribed to variable weather conditions. The first strategy is based on the idea of aggregating the output of geographically-dispersed generating units. The second strategy employs financial instruments that compensate producers for unanticipated declines in the power delivery. Using a blend of advanced weather modeling, time series analysis, simulation and optimization techniques, we empirically access the ability of the two risk management approaches to control volumetric risk in Spain. With the aid of factor analysis techniques, we proceed with the decomposition of the remaining risk levels and assess the exposure of each strategy's revenue to systematic risk factors. Motivated by the results of this analysis, we propose new financial contracts and mixed-style strategies that are better suited to the risk position of each market player. • We introduce various strategies for managing the wind volumetric risk in Spain. • We quantify their ability to reduce the revenue variance of wind power producers. • Spatial aggregation of resources is not a cure for wind energy stochasticity. • Commercial wind power futures cannot hedge away all risk dimensions. • New contract designs are needed to control systematic variations in producers' income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new hybrid prediction system is proposed to predict wind speed. • Simplex and chaotic mapping optimization cuckoo algorithm are proposed. • An uncertainty prediction model based on Monte Carlo method is proposed. • The energy theory is proposed to optimize the decomposition mode number. • Theories proofs and experiments verify the effectiveness of the model. Wind energy has strong volatility and intermittent. Accurate wind speed prediction can not only improve the safety of the system, but also optimize dispatch and reduce economic losses. However, previous studies tend to ignore the influence of virtual components and lack effective identification of wind speed characteristics and a robust interval prediction scheme, resulting in poor results. To bridge these gaps, this paper proposes an energy theory method to solve the problem of modal over-decomposition. The study also combines effective modal recognition, uses different prediction methods according to modal characteristics and proposes a set of new optimization algorithms to improve nonlinear prediction capabilities. Finally, based on Monte Carlo theory, a set of interval prediction schemes that can adapt to different error characteristics are proposed. Under the verification of wind speed data in Changma, China and Sotavento, Spain. The mean absolute percentage error of wind speed deterministic prediction reaches 4.22% and 5.82%, respectively. The coverage rate of wind speed uncertainty prediction meets different confidence requirements, and the average interval width is still less than 2.5 m/s at 90% confidence. The results show that the forecasting system proposed in this paper is significantly better than all the comparative forecasting schemes, which can reduce the risk of fluctuations and improve the stability and safety of the wind power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parabolic-trough solar collector fields are large-scale systems, so the application of centralized optimization-based control methods to these systems is often not suitable for real-time control. As such, this paper formulates a novel coalitional control approach as an appropriate alternative to the centralized scheme. The key idea is to split the overall solar collector field into smaller subsystems, each of them governed by a local controller. Then, controllers are clustered into coalitions to solve a local optimization-based problem related to the corresponding subset of subsystems, so that an approximate solution of the original centralized problem can be obtained in a decentralized fashion. However, the operational constraints of the solar collector field couple the optimization problems of the multiple coalitions, thus limiting the ability to solve them in a fully decentralized manner. To overcome this issue, a novel population-dynamics-assisted resource allocation strategy is proposed as a mechanism to decouple the local optimization problems of the multiple coalitions. The proposed coalitional methodology allows to solve the multiple local subproblems in parallel, hence reducing the overall computational burden, while guaranteeing the satisfaction of the operational constraints and without significantly compromising the overall performance. The effectiveness of proposed approach is shown through numerical simulations of a 10- and 100-loop version of the ACUREX solar collector field of Plataforma Solar de Almería , Spain. • Decentralized control of large-scale parabolic-trough solar collector fields. • Reducing the computational burden of model predictive controllers for solar plants. • Splitting large-scale solar plants by clustering model predictive controllers. • Improving the scalability of model predictive control for large-scale solar plants. • Evolutionary game theoretical assistance for model predictive control in solar plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A MILP is set to ex-post optimise the Interruptible Load program in Spain. • Consideration of real technical and regulatory constraints. • Definition of a series of metrics to compare the optimal performance of programs. • Recommendation to design and operate Interruptible Load programs. • The optimal usage of the resource could have saved the system a total of 163 M€. The deployment of demand response in reserve markets has been widely discussed. Interruptible Load programs contract demand capacity from consumers in exchange for fixed and variable payments. System operators contract these resources to increase system resilience and use them for economic purposes. Although common, no ex-post evaluations of the program's performance and efficiency exists in the literature. To fill this gap, the paper presents a procedure to evaluate the optimal usage of these resources from a system operator perspective. A Mixed Integer Linear Problem is set to minimise the overall cost of the system using the participant demand resources in the tertiary reserve market, while ensuring that all technical and regulatory constraints are fulfilled in the evaluation. The proposed method describes a series of metrics to compare the optimal performance with the current scenario, and we draw a set of conclusions and policy recommendations from it. We apply the method to the Spanish Interruptible Load program. Our results show that during the five and a half years of the program, demand resources could have provided savings to the system of up to 23% of the cost of tertiary reserve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A novel genetic algorithm-based seasonal fractional grey model is proposed. • Monthly electricity generation is forecasted since the Covid-19 lockdown started. • Seasonal grey and machine learning models are used for forecasting. • The selected countries are France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and the UK. • The share of renewables in total electricity generation is forecasted. Balances in the energy sector have changed since the implementation of the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown in Europe. This paper analyses how the lockdown affected electricity generation in European countries and how it will reshape future energy generation. Monthly electricity generation from total renewables and non-renewables in France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and the UK from January 2017 to September 2020 were evaluated and compared. Four seasonal grey prediction models and three machine learning methods were used for forecasting; the quarterly results are presented to the end of 2021. Additionally, the share of electricity generation from renewables in total electricity generation from 2017 to 2021 for the selected countries was compared. Electricity generation from total non-renewables in the second quarter of 2020 for France, Germany, Spain, and the UK decreased by 21%–25% compared to the same period of 2019; the decline in Turkey was approximately 11%. Additionally, electricity generation from non-renewables in the third quarter of 2020 for all countries, except Turkey, decreased compared to the same period of the previous year. All grey prediction models and support vector machine method forecast that the share of renewables in total electricity generation will increase continuously in France, Germany, Spain, and the UK to the end of 2021. The forecasting methods provided by this study open new avenues for research on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the future of the energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]