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Efficient electric heat pumps that replace fossil-fueled heating systems could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, electric heat pumps can sharply increase electricity demand, causing high utility bills and stressing the power grid. Residential neighborhoods could see particularly high electricity demand during cold weather, when heat demand rises and heat pump efficiencies fall. This paper presents the development and field demonstration of a predictive control system for an air-to-air heat pump with backup electric resistance heat. The control system adjusts indoor temperature set-points based on weather forecasts, occupancy conditions, and data-driven models of the building and heating equipment. Field tests from January to March of 2023 in an occupied, all-electric, 208 m 2 detached single-family house in Indiana, USA, included outdoor temperatures as low as − 15 ° C. On average over these tests, the control system reduced daily heating energy use by 19% (95% confidence interval: 13%–24%), energy used for backup heat by 38%, and the frequency of using the highest stage (19 kW) of backup heat by 83%. Concurrent surveys of residents showed that the control system maintained satisfactory thermal comfort. The control system could reduce the house's total annual heating costs by about $300 (95% confidence interval: 23%–34%). These real-world results could strengthen the case for deploying predictive home heating control, bringing the technology one step closer to reducing emissions, utility bills, and power grid impacts at scale. • First field deployment of predictive control for an air-to-air heat pump in a cold climate. • Review of all known field studies of supervisory control for residential HVAC. • Reduced heating energy use by 13%–24% and use of highest-stage backup heat by 83%. • Occupants reported similar thermal comfort to benchmark control system. • Discussion of deployment labor, costs, challenges, and scalability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses alternative energy technologies (i.e., PV and battery systems, electric heat pumps, hybrid gas heating with solar thermal energy) in terms of profitability and CO 2 emissions, for the case of two simulated typical households living in detached houses in Germany. Under the status-quo regulatory framework, the energy transition in the heating sector is fostered through grants for replacing old heating systems, whereas PV generation is fostered by feed-in tariffs and indirect subsidies for self-consumption. This study considers an alternative regulatory scenario with a more market-oriented approach, finding that a CO 2 -oriented reform of energy surcharges and taxes, as well as a reform of network charges, can support a more cost-efficient energy transition in the residential sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of the consistency, cost efficiency and effectiveness of past and current policies underpinning the energy transition in the residential sector. • Assessment of home energy systems across 2 households and 2 regulatory scenarios. • Consideration of PV, batteries, heat pumps and hybrid gas-solar heating systems. • Comparison of subsidies and flat energy tariffs vs. cost-reflective, dynamic tariffs. • Market-oriented approach incentivizes far more cost-efficient CO 2 emission reduction. • The German residential energy sector needs a consistent regulatory framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The first review of electrical heat pumps assisted by natural gas is performed. • Many different layouts and control strategies were found. • In most of the analyzed case studies, a rule-based control strategy is assumed. • Researchers presented very heterogeneous key performance indicators. • Exhaustive environmental analyses are very rarely presented. In this paper, a comprehensive review is performed on hybrid systems using electrical Heat Pumps for Heating, Ventilation & Air Conditioning systems and Domestic Hot Water production using case studies from 2016 to 2022. This work particularly focuses on studies that investigated systems with electrical Heat Pumps assisted by a gas boiler. Some studies that considered the exploitation of renewable energy sources, but not as a whole substitute for fossil sources, have also been included. In particular, the analysis investigated the layouts of the systems by considering the type and the size of the components, the control methods applied (by distinguishing rule-based control methods and predictive control methods), and the main performance indices used to calculate energy, exergy, environmental and economic performance. Most of the analysed studies demonstrated that the hybrid systems could be very advantageous if the switch or the integration of the two generators is well managed. Nevertheless, the energy and economic performances are very different for each system studied. They are highly influenced by the control strategies implemented and by the objective functions adopted. Furthermore, climate can influence performance while affecting the Coefficient Of Performance of the heat pump and the availability of energy sources. Regarding economic issues, the systems' performances vary according to specific Country tariff structures. The review reported a promising research activity also pursued by manufacturers of components and equipment. Nevertheless, the paper highlights new possible research and development directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International Energy Agency predicts that the global number of installed heat pumps (HP) will increase from 180 million in 2020 to approximately 600 million by 2030, covering 20% of buildings heating needs. Electric power consumption is one of the main key performance indicators for the heat pump systems from techno-economic perspective. However a common issue prevalent in many existing heat pumps is the lack of electric power measurement. The modern installations might be equipped with electric power measurement sensors but this comes at a higher system cost for the manufacturers and end-users. The primary objective of this work is to propose a virtual measurement for estimating power consumption, thereby eliminating the need for field measurement of power for heat pumps. To achieve the objective, a data-driven approach is proposed. Firstly, the in-situ data is preprocessed through data merging, cleaning, and normalization. Then, input features are pre-selected using Spearman correlation coefficients, and further refined by addressing multicollinearity problem. Following this, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models and polynomial models are developed by considering different features as inputs. All models are finally validated against the in-situ data from multi-units of ground source heat pump (GSHP) and air source heat pump (ASHP) installations. The results showed that the electric power consumption of GSHP can be estimated with high accuracy (99% for R 2 , 10 W for MAE, and 1% for MAPE) through generic data-driven models using only four easy-to-measure input features. Taking three input features as inputs for ASHP generic model, the accuracy can be reached to 83% for R 2 , 125 W for MAE, and 9% for MAPE. The method presented in this paper can be applied to estimate power consumption of millions of heat pumps and consequently add a significant value as well as provide different types of services, such as cost-saving benefits for manufacturers and end-users, flexibility services for aggregators and electricity grids. • Collect and analyze in-situ data from multiple residential GSHP and ASHP units. • Propose a two-step feature selection method to indicate the most essential inputs. • Evaluate the most predominant features by data-driven models with different inputs. • Develop high accuracy generic data-driven models with limited inputs features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heating electrification powered by distributed renewable energy generation is considered among potential solutions towards mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Roadmaps propose a wide deployment of heat pumps and photovoltaics in the residential sector. Since current distribution grids are not designed to accommodate these loads, potential benefits of such policies might be compromised. However, in large-scale analyses, often grid constraints are neglected. On the other hand, grid impact of heat pumps and photovoltaics has been investigated without considering the influence of building characteristics. This paper aims to assess and quantify in a probabilistic way the impact of these technologies on the low-voltage distribution grid, as a function of building and district properties. The Monte Carlo approach is used to simulate an assortment of Belgian residential feeders, with varying size, cable type, heat pump and PV penetration rates, and buildings of different geometry and insulation quality. Modelica-based models simulate the dynamic behavior of both buildings and heating systems, as well as three-phase unbalanced loading of the network. Additionally, stochastic occupant behavior is taken into account. Analysis of neighborhood load profiles puts into perspective the importance of demand diversity in terms of building characteristics and load simultaneity, highlighting the crucial role of back-up electrical loads. It is shown that air-source heat pumps have a greater impact on the studied feeders than PV, in terms of loading and voltage magnitude. Furthermore, rural feeders are more prone to overloading and under-voltage problems than urban ones. For large rural feeders, cable overloading can be expected already from 30% heat pump penetration, depending on the cable, while voltage problems start usually at slightly higher percentages. Additionally, building characteristics show high correlations with the examined grid performance indicators, revealing promising potential for statistical modeling of the studied indicators. Further work will be directed to the assessment of meta-modeling techniques for this purpose. The presented models and methodology can easily incorporate other technologies or scenarios and could be used in support of policy making or network design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• World's first grid-scale PHES demonstrator system has been described. • Performance of a novel heat pump/engine has been tested and losses are quantified. • Round-trip efficiency of the system has been identified numerically. • Round-trip efficiency is within a range of 70–80 % for single storage cycle. • Periodic operation can yield a steady global round-trip efficiency of about 73 %. Among the known energy storage technologies aiming to increase the efficiency and stability of power grids, Pumped Heat Energy Storage (PHES) is considered by many as a promising candidate because of its flexibility, potential for scale-up and low cost per energy storage unit. Whilst there are numerous demonstration systems under development, as it stands the only PHES demonstration system to be realised at scale is located in Hampshire, UK. This paper aims to present the results and analysis obtained from its commissioning and testing as part of an on-going study. The system was designed to offer a nominal power size of 150 kW e and energy storage capacity of 600 kWh e for an 8-hour storage cycle. This work presents evidence of the system Round-trip efficiency (RTE), which is considered as a fundamental performance metric for large-scale energy storage technologies. Recorded Pressure-Volume (P-V) measurements from recent heat pump/engine testing at part-load offers useful insight in terms of overall performance. Models are also developed to simulate the system to finally predict the performance at full-load conditions. The system and principle of operation are described first, followed by mathematical modelling outlining heat transfer mechanism and associated key losses involved in thermodynamic processes within components, and finally results are presented and compared at different operating conditions using different working gases. The results show good agreement with earlier studies, which indicate that expected electricity-to-electricity RTE is quite comparable to other mature technologies such as Pumped Hydropower Storage and Compressed Air Energy Storage. The cyclic operation of the system is also discussed. One-off storage cycle results in lower RTEs compared to a load-levelling cyclic operation where the efficiency is significantly improved due to stable packed-bed behaviour and better utilisation after an initial transient state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Paper presents a novel approach for optimising the mix of heat supply technologies. • Heat supply choices are affected by local and national interactions with power. • Heat sector flexibility can support decarbonisation of electricity supply. • Emission limits and grid constraints shape the optimal heat plant portfolio. • Increasing heat storage capacity can help with local network constraints. Decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector is critical for achieving long-term energy and climate change objectives. Closer integration between heating/cooling and electricity systems can provide additional flexibility required to support the integration of variable renewables and other low-carbon energy sources. This paper proposes a framework for identifying cost-efficient solutions for supplying district heating systems within both operation and investment timescales, while considering local and national-level interactions between heat and electricity infrastructures. The proposed optimisation model minimises the levelised cost of a portfolio of heating technologies, and in particular Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and polygeneration systems, centralised heat pumps (HPs), centralised boilers and thermal energy storage (TES). A number of illustrative case studies are presented, quantifying the impact of renewable penetration, electricity price volatility, local grid constraints and local emission targets on optimal planning and operation of heat production assets. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the cost-optimal TES capacity could increase by 41–134% in order to manage a constraint in the local electricity grid, while in systems with higher RES penetration reflected in higher electricity price volatility it may be optimal to increase the TES capacity by 50–66% compared to constant prices, allowing centralised electric HP technologies to divert excess electricity produced by intermittent renewable generators to the heating sector. This confirms the importance of reflecting the whole-system value of heating technologies in the underlying cost-benefit analysis of heat networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Data-driven and comprehensive thermodynamic technology models are developed. • Multi-fidelity approaches are used to compare heat-generation solutions. • Centralised CHP systems appear to be the most profitable option at present. • Heat pumps can achieve a significant degree of heat decarbonisation (55–62%). • Thermodynamic models reduce uncertainty by 75% compared to black-box approaches. This paper presents a multi-scale framework for the design and comparison of centralised and distributed heat generation solutions. An extensive analysis of commercially available products on the UK market is conducted to gather information on the performance and cost of a range of gas-fired combined heat and power (CHP) systems, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs). Data-driven models with associated uncertainty bounds are derived from the collected data, which capture cost and performance variations with scale (i.e. , size and rating) and operating conditions. In addition, a comprehensive thermoeconomic (thermodynamic and component-costing) heat pump model, validated against manufacturer data, is developed to capture design-related performance and cost variations, thus reducing technology-related model uncertainties. The novelty of this paper lies in the use of multi-fidelity approaches for the comparison of the economic and environmental potential of important heat-generation solutions: (i) centralised gas-fired CHP systems associated with district heating network; (ii) gas-fired CHP systems or GSHPs providing heat to differentiated energy communities; and (iii) small-scale micro-CHP systems, ASHPs or GSHPs, installed at the household level. The pathways are evaluated for the case of the Isle of Dogs district in London, UK. A centralised CHP system appears as the most profitable option, achieving annual savings of £13 M compared to the use of decentralised boilers and a levelised cost of heat equal to 31 £/MWh th. However, if the carbon intensity of the electrical grid continues to reduce at current rates, CHP systems will only provide minimal carbon savings compared to boilers (<6%), with heat pumps achieving significant heat decarbonisation (55–62%). Differentiating between high- and low-performance and cost heat pump designs shows that the former, although 25% more expensive, have significantly lower annualised costs (£4.9 M vs. £7.7 M) and 12% higher CO 2 -equivalent savings. The uncertainty propagation reveals that data-driven and detailed thermoeconomic models can reduce the uncertainty in the total annualised energy cost and emissions by more than 75% compared to simplified black-box approaches, while the economic comparison of centralised CHP systems and domestic heat pumps for various electricity and gas price scenarios provides guidance to support energy policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate a solar driven direct-expansion heat pump system employing the novel PV/micro-channels-evaporator modules, in terms of its solar thermal, electrical and overall efficiency, as well as coefficient of performance (COP), at the real-time operational condition. This work was undertaken through a dedicated system design, construction, field-testing and performance analysis. It was found that the novel PV/micro-channel-evaporator modules could achieve an average thermal, electrical and overall efficiency of 56.6%, 15.4% and 69.7% respectively at the specified operational condition, while average COP of the system reached 4.7. The innovative feature of the system lied in the structure of the evaporator that was made of the parallel-laid micro-channels. Such a structure created the reduced interior cross-sectional area and thus increased vapor flow velocity within the channels, while the high vapor velocity generated a higher shear stress exerted upon the liquid-vapor interface, leading to the reduced liquid film thickness, increased refrigerant evaporation rate, and increased electrical and heat outputs. The research has provided the fundamental data and experience for developing a highly efficient and practically feasible solar heat pump system applicable to the cold climatic conditions, thus contributing to significant fossil fuel saving and carbon reduction in the global extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground-coupled heat pumps are widely applied in cold regions, but soil thermal imbalances in some projects greatly deteriorate the systems’ practical performances and heavily inhibit the systems’ reasonable applications. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the main problems caused by soil thermal imbalance and the existing solutions targeting on them. The caused problems mainly present in the following aspects: soil temperature decrease, heating performance deterioration, heating reliability decline, and even system failure. Three kinds of existing solutions can be classified. Ground heat exchanger-modified solutions including increasing borehole space, increasing borehole length, modifying borehole layout, and improving thermal properties, can retard the thermal imbalance to some extent, suitable to projects with slight imbalance. System-modified solutions integrating auxiliary energy sources like fossil fuel, solar energy, ambient air and waste heat with ground-coupled heat pumps or using ground-coupled absorption heat pumps, can eliminate serious thermal imbalance essentially by increasing soil thermal injection and decreasing the extraction. Thus, they are dominant in the applications and attract more attention along with the utilization of renewable energies. Apart from the modifications of system design, operation-modified solutions, like seasonal and intermittent operations, are also helpful to maintain better soil thermal balance. Based on the overview, the current application situations and economic performance of different solutions are discussed. Finally, some suggestions for the applications of ground source heat pumps in cold regions are proposed to make the overview helpful for the system research and applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Examine preference heterogeneity for renewable home heating systems. • Combined psychological construct statements and a discrete choice experiment. • Identify four types of viewpoints towards heat pumps using latent class analysis. • Estimate willingness to pay for non-monetary attributes of new home heating systems. This paper aims to understand heterogeneity in preferences for renewable home heating systems such as heat pump systems, using a combination of psychological construct statements and a discrete choice experiment. We employ a latent class analysis for a nationally representative sample of Irish households to identify and characterize distinct respondent classes based on their responses to statements on attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and intention to install a heat pump that are constructed based on the theory of planned behavior. This allows us to identify four types of people with different viewpoints towards heat pumps. Furthermore, we conducted a discrete choice experiment with a subsample of randomly selected respondents to estimate preferences for different attributes of a new home heating system and the corresponding marginal willingness to pay. Our estimated results show that, in addition to upfront cost and bill savings, non-monetary attributes such as installation hassle, environmental sustainability, and an increase in home comfort of use are important determinants of the uptake of new home heating systems, including heat pumps. The findings of this study should provide useful information to policymakers and companies on end-user profiles, heterogeneity in preferences, and willingness to pay estimates for new home heating alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents the numerical simulation of a solar assisted ground coupled heat pump (SAGCHP) system which can provide both space heating and domestic hot water (DHW). The optimization process is completed on the TRNSYS based platform by simulating the influence of solar collector area on the total borehole length and system performance. Simulations are also carried out under different meteorological conditions to explore the applicability of the proposed SAGCHP system in northern China. The simulating results show that the optimized system under the specified load conditions has a collector area of 40m2 and a borehole length of 264m. The annual total heat extraction plus 75% of the hot water requirement can be provided by solar energy in the optimized design. Furthermore, the energy balance of the optimized design is confirmed with a minor difference of 0.75%, and the system is proved more efficient and economical for its application in Beijing area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: When an air source heat pump (ASHP) operates in heating mode, frost can be accumulated on the surface of its finned outdoor coil. Frosting deteriorates the operation and energy efficiency of the ASHP and periodic defrosting becomes necessary. Currently the most widely used standard defrosting method for ASHPs is reverse cycle defrost. On the other hand, electronic expansion valves (EEVs) are commonly used in heat pump/refrigeration systems, including ASHP units, as throttle regulators of refrigerant flow. This paper reports on an experimental investigation of the performance of a reverse cycle defrost operation for a 6.5kW experimental heating capacity residential ASHP whose outdoor coil had four-parallel refrigerant circuits, and with an EEV as the refrigerant flow throttle regulator. The detailed descriptions of the experimental ASHP unit and the experimental procedures of ASHP are firstly presented. This is followed by reporting the comparative experiments of two control strategies for the EEV to investigate their effects on defrosting performance: the EEV being fully open and the EEV being regulated by a degree of refrigerant superheat (DS) controller. Experimental results revealed that when the EEV was regulated by the DS controller during defrosting, a higher defrosting efficiency and less heat wastage would be resulted in. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The experimental part of the study of the reverse cycle defrosting performance on a four-circuit outdoor coil unit in an experimental 6.5kW heating capacity residential ASHP has been reported in Part I of a two-part series. The experimental results indicated that downwards flowing of the melted frost along a multi-circuit outdoor coil surface would have negative effects on defrosting performance. In order to quantitatively analyze the effects, this paper, the second part of the two-part series, reports on a modeling analysis where a semi-empirical model of the airside defrosting in the four-circuit outdoor coil unit was developed. The model was validated by comparing the predicted defrosting duration and temperature variation of collected melted frost with the corresponding experimental data presented in Part I of the two-part series. Using the validated model, the frost-melting rate and the temperature of melted frost on the surface of each circuit were predicted. The effects of the downwards flowing melted frost along the entire outdoor coil surface on defrosting performance were quantitatively analyzed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: When an air source heat pump (ASHP) unit operates in heating mode, frost can be accumulated on the surface of its finned outdoor coil which normally has multiple parallel circuits on its refrigerant side for minimized refrigerant pressure loss and enhanced heat transfer efficiency. On its airside, however, there is usually no segmentation corresponding to the number of refrigerant circuit. Frosting deteriorates the operation and energy efficiency of the ASHP unit and periodic defrosting becomes necessary. Currently the most widely used standard defrosting method for ASHPs is reverse cycle defrost. This paper, the first part of a two-part series, reports on the experimental part of a study of the reverse cycle defrosting performance on a multi-circuit outdoor coil unit in an experimental 6.5kW heating capacity residential ASHP unit. Firstly the experimental ASHP unit is described and experimental procedures detailed. Secondly, the experimental results are reported. This is followed by the discussion on the effects of downwards flowing of the melted frost along a multi-circuit outdoor coil surface on defrosting performance. Finally, the evaluation of the defrosting efficiency for the experimental ASHP unit is provided. In the second part of the series, a modeling analysis on the effects of downwards flowing of the melted frost along the multi-circuit outdoor coil surface on defrosting performance of the experimental ASHP unit will be presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Techno-economic analysis of low-carbon heat supply options for UK supermarkets. • RIHC, an ASHP, and a thermal storage tank with advanced control is recommended. • Best investments provide a 16-to-18-year payback without a carbon price. • The UK renewable heat incentive subsidy (for ASHP) generates 89% of the 'savings' • When a £100/tCO2e tax is considered, paybacks are reduced to a 9–11 years. Eliminating the use of natural gas for non-domestic heat supply is an imperative component of net-zero targets. Techno-economic analyses of competing options for low-carbon heat supply are essential for decision makers developing decarbonisation strategies. This paper investigates the impact various heat supply configurations can have in UK supermarkets by using heat recovery principles from refrigeration systems under different climatic conditions. The methodology builds upon a steady-state model that has been validated in previous studies. All refrigeration integrated heating and cooling (RIHC) systems employ CO 2 booster refrigeration to recover heat and provide space heating alongside various technologies such as thermal storage, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and direct electric heaters. Seven cases evaluating various technology combinations are analysed and compared against a conventional scenario in which the building is heated with a natural gas boiler. The specific combinations of technologies analysed here contrasts trade-offs and is a first in the literature. The capital costs of these projects are considered, giving insights into their business case. Results indicate that electric heaters are not cost-competitive in supermarkets. Meanwhile, RIHC and ASHP configurations are the most attractive option, and if a thermal storage tank system with advanced controls is included, the benefits increase even further. Best solutions have a 6.3% ROI, a payback time of 16 years while reducing energy demand by 62% and CO 2 emissions by 54%. Such investments will be difficult to justify unless policy steers decision makers through incentives or the business case changes by implementing internal carbon pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To increase the heating capacity of air-source heat-pump in cold regions, an improved heat pump cycle with scroll compressor economizer was developed. The measured results of the prototype demonstrate that it can provide a high temperature and high-capacity water supply even under a low ambient temperature of −10∼−15 °C. The performances of the improved heat-pump cycle are comprehensively analyzed with aid of the proposed thermodynamic model in this paper. The design parameters and the components of the cycle are optimized and the predicted results. The predicted results discussed indicate that the improved heat pump has high efficiency under all weather conditions and that this improvement is conducive to enlarging the running region of the heat pump and providing an alternative heating service for cold regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper analyses optimal electricity investments (PV and battery storage) to decarbonise heat supply in residential buildings under different heat pump and energy retrofitting scenarios in a detailed representation of the Swiss power and heating system. The sensitivity of PV and storage deployment, including lithium-ion (LiB) and vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB), with respect to distribution network capacity is also investigated. We propose an open-source dispatch sector coupling model (GRIMSEL-AH) to minimise energy system costs (social planner perspective) for heating and electricity supply in Switzerland with hourly and daily time resolution for electricity and heating respectively. Moreover, our representation of the Swiss energy system includes various types of consumers and urban settings which are represented with monitored electricity demand data for each sector and simulated heat demand data at the building level for the residential sector. We find that under a "business as usual" heat pump deployment and retrofitting rate, the optimal electricity investments correspond to 27.8 GW p of PV combined with 16.9 GW (33.8 GWh) for LiB and 1.9 GW (7.6 GWh) for VRFB. For this case, 57% (13.3 TW th /year) of the residential heat demand is covered by heat pumps with a total installed capacity of 19.7 GW th by 2050 (capacity exogenously set with its operation optimised). With increasing heat pump deployment, retrofitting rates are found to have a large impact on the investment in storage and a 100% heat pump scenario for the residential sector appears to be feasible. Our results show that heat pumps do not only decarbonise heat but also provide extra flexibility to the power system, since they increase local PV self-consumption, resulting in higher PV deployment. The model and the methodology presented in this study can be applied to other countries. • Open-source sector coupling modelling framework with flexible heat pump operation. • Impact of heat pump and energy retrofitting scenarios on electricity investments. • Retrofitting rates have a significant impact on the storage investment. • Heat pumps provide extra flexibility by increasing local PV self-consumption. • Trade-offs between storage and distribution grid upgrade are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Net-zero emissions are modelled for electricity, heating and cooling in Europe. • System cost decreases thanks to heat savings, but not for climate change scenarios. • Lower heat demand disfavours heat pumps as surplus electricity is used by resistors. • Cheaper heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable generators, power-to-heat converters, storage units, synthetic gas and transmission manage to deliver an affordable net-zero emissions system. We find that levelised cost of energy decreases due to heat savings, but not for global temperature increases. In both cases, heat pumps become less favourable as surplus electricity is more abundant for heating. Demand-side management through buildings' thermal inertia could shape the heating demand, yet has modest impact on the system configuration. Cost reductions of heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. Cheaper power-to-gas could lower the need for thermal energy storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]