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Common approaches to assess the evolution of CO 2 emissions from road vehicles are usually based on (a) estimates of future fleet composition, where most approaches consider vehicles at a rather aggregated level, and (b) emission factors, which are either based on CO 2 certification data or statistically-provided functional relationships obtained from real world test data, or a combination of the two. This approach has certain limitations in capturing the effect of new technologies on CO 2 emission related policy initiatives. The present study proposes a new method for the detailed calculation of the European light duty vehicle fleet CO 2 emissions, which could help to overcome such limitations, achieve better results when making CO 2 emissions projections and better support future policies. Simulation at individual vehicle level is combined with fleet composition data, retrieved from the official European CO 2 emissions monitoring database, and publicly available data regarding individual vehicle characteristics in order to calculate vehicle CO 2 emissions and fuel consumption over different conditions and vehicle configurations. The methodology is applied to analyze and assess the impact of the introduction of the new certification procedure, the Worldwide Light duty vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP), on the European car fleet CO 2 emissions. Results show an average WLTP to NEDC CO 2 emissions ratio of approximately 1.2. The increases in CO 2 emissions are higher for cars exhibiting lower NEDC emission values (additional 29 and 25 gCO 2 /km for vehicles emitting 100 and 119 gCO 2 /km, respectively). At higher emission levels (about 250 CO 2 g/km) WLTP and NEDC present comparable results. Three possible scenarios for the translation of projected NEDC CO 2 emissions to WLTP-based ones are quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Commission has been actively involved in the development of the World-wide harmonized Light duty Test Cycle (WLTC) and corresponding Test Procedure (WLTP), and is currently working to introduce them in the European type approval (TA) procedure. The present study analyzes and estimates the effects of the introduction of WLTP on the average CO 2 emissions and average vehicle energy demands (VEDs) from different segments of the European vehicle market. Twenty gasoline and eleven diesel vehicles were tested on the current European TA procedure NEDC, and on the evolving WLTP. These WLTP tests were then used as base line to estimate for each vehicle a WLTP best case and a WLTP worst case scenario, in line with the finalized version of the WLTP. In the WLTP worst case scenario (WLTP-H) results showed CO 2 emissions and energy demands to be on average 11% and 44% higher than NEDC, respectively. Best case scenario (WLTP-L) has on average 1% higher CO 2 emissions and 26% higher energy requirements than the NEDC. These values should be considered on top of the 8% average difference between the JRC NEDC test results and the official type approval values. The higher vehicle inertia and road loads (RLs) along with the higher vehicle speeds, are the key parameters of the new procedure that contribute to the increased CO 2 emissions and vehicle energy demand (VED). Results from the present study show that moving from NEDC to WLTP have a stronger impact on diesel than on gasoline vehicles. The highest effect of WLTP introduction is measured for vehicles that comply with EURO 6 emission standard (14% increase in CO 2 emissions from NEDC to the simulated worst case WLTP), with also the largest difference between JRC measured NEDC tests and declared type approval values (11% difference). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As of July 2017, the emissions type-approval of light-duty vehicles in Europe is based on the Worldwide Harmonized Light-duty vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), introduced to replace the old and outdated New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) test procedure. Since some elements of the European Legislation are still based on the NEDC (2020 CO 2 emission targets, vehicle labelling, national vehicle taxation policies, etc.) in order to allow sufficient lead time to vehicle manufacturers and national authorities to adapt to the new procedure, a simulation-based approach was chosen to calculate CO 2 emissions and fuel consumption according to the NEDC regime in the period 2017–2020. To achieve this objective without significantly increasing the cost and duration of the certification procedure, existing regulation foresees that vehicles are tested over the WLTP for CO 2 emissions, the test results are used as input in a simulation model that then calculates the corresponding CO 2 according to the NEDC test protocol. A dedicated vehicle simulation model (CO 2 MPAS) was developed for the purpose and is currently used for the type-approval of new vehicles in Europe. The development specifications of CO 2 MPAS were challenging, as it had to be highly accurate, exhibit fast operation, and function with a limited number of input data. This paper presents the development principles and process followed, details of the physical models employed in CO 2 MPAS, and provides information regarding its accuracy, validity and in use operation. CO 2 MPAS achieves low errors in the prediction of the NEDC cycle that in the controlled sample used for its development are of the order of 1% with a standard deviation of 3%, while the respective in-use numbers are of the order of 1.5% and 5%. In parallel, random sampling and testing of a 10% of the type-approved vehicles also occurs in order to guarantee the quality of the CO 2 MPAS results and the validity of the process. It is concluded that CO 2 MPAS can be used to accurately estimate emissions of conventional vehicles within a ±4% accuracy range, even when limited input data are available. In addition, the in-use data analyzed suggest that the use of the tool enables the certification of about 2/3 of the new vehicle models without the need of additional experimental tests. This is an important achievement as it reduces the costs and time necessary to certify light-duty vehicle CO 2 emissions during the transitional period. Finally, it can be concluded that the use of CO 2 MPAS does not affect the declared CO 2 emissions of vehicles over NEDC conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]