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Clustering methods are often used to model energy consumption for two reasons. First, clustering is often used to process data and to improve the predictive accuracy of subsequent energy models. Second, stable clusters that are reproducible with respect to non-essential changes can be used to group, target, and interpret observed subjects. However, it is well known that clustering methods are highly sensitive to the choice of algorithms and variables. This can lead to misleading assessments of predictive accuracy and mis-interpretation of clusters in policymaking. This paper therefore introduces two methods to the modeling of energy consumption in buildings: clusterwise regression, also known as latent class regression, which integrates clustering and regression simultaneously; and cluster validation methods to measure stability. Using a large dataset of multifamily buildings in New York City, clusterwise regression is compared to common two-stage algorithms that use K -means and model-based clustering with linear regression. Predictive accuracy is evaluated using 20-fold cross validation, and the stability of the perturbed clusters is measured using the Jaccard coefficient. These results show that there seems to be an inherent tradeoff between prediction accuracy and cluster stability. This paper concludes by discussing which clustering methods may be appropriate for different analytical purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic conditions strongly affect the energy performance of buildings, and due to the synergy between global climate change and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, the climatic conditions inside and outside the city are highly different. However, weather data collected at airports are commonly used for building energy simulations and these data do not take into account real temperature distribution in cities. Many studies in the literature address the topic but mostly considering only a couple of urban and non-urban stations. In this paper, the urban climate in Rome, Italy, is analysed after monitoring of the air temperature and relative humidity in four selected neighbourhoods and one reference station from October 2014 until September 2017. Rome is characterised by a composite urban pattern and high variability of building types, of which the four selected areas are representative. The heating degree days decrease up to 18% and cooling degree days increase up to 157% in the urban area with respect to the rural reference and the area most affected by the UHI is the city centre. The UHI is more intense in summer than in winter (average increase between 0.7 °C and 1 °C); while the diurnal and nocturnal UHI depends on the season and the neighbourhood. Then, the energy performance of a representative apartment block and a typical office building was computed using the measured data. Regarding the predicted energy performance, comparing the four urban sites and the reference site, the UHI causes a reduction of heating consumption up to 21% in residential building and 18% in the office building. An increase of cooling consumption up to 74% is instead computed for the residential building and up to 53% for the office building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of novel, recyclable and reusable, construction materials has already been studied within literature during the past years, aiming at improving the overall energy efficiency ranking of the building envelope. However, several studies show that a delicate control of indoor climating elements can lead to a significant performance improvement by exploiting the building’s savings potential via smart adaptive HVAC regulation to exogenous uncertain disturbances (e.g. weather, occupancy). Building Optimization and Control (BOC) systems can be categorized into two different groups: centralized (requiring high data transmission rates at a central node from every corner of the overall system) and decentralized 1 The terms “decentralized”, “distributed” and “agent-based” are considered to have similar meanings herein. 1 (assuming an intercommunication among neighboring constituent systems). Moreover, both approaches can be further divided into two subcategories, respectively: model-assisted (usually introducing modeling oversimplifications) and model-free (typically presenting poor stability and very slow convergence rates). This paper presents the application of a novel, decentralized, agent-based , model-free BOC methodology (abbreviated as L4GPCAO) to a modern non-residential building (E.ON. Energy Research Center’s main building), equipped with controllable HVAC systems and renewable energy sources by utilizing the existing Building Management System (BES). The building testbed is located inside the RWTH Aachen University campus in Aachen, Germany. A combined rule criterion composed of the non-renewable energy consumption (NREC) and the thermal comfort index – aligned to international comfort standards – was adopted in all cases presented herein. Besides the limited availability of the specified building testbed, real-life experiments demonstrated operational effectiveness of the proposed approach in BOC applications with complex, emerging dynamics arising from the building’s occupancy and thermal characteristics. L4GPCAO outperformed the control strategy that was designed by the planers and system provider, in a conventional manner, requiring no more than five test days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant energy savings can be achieved in buildings by altering how occupants use and operate various building systems. The first step to successfully inducing such change requires a thorough assessment and understanding of the actual drivers and motivators of existing behaviors. The current literature on energy conservation behaviors in buildings presents significant limitations including: (1) the availability of data on human behavior in buildings; (2) the lack of consideration of various behavioral drivers (e.g., social, environmental, and economic); (3) simplified data analysis methods, which overlook combined effects of behavioral drivers; and (4) limited scopes of work to either residential or commercial buildings, overlooking potential synergies between the two. This paper aims to fill the stated gaps in the literature by proposing a comprehensive data collection and analysis framework to investigate the energy conservation motivation and actions of people in individual or groups of buildings (e.g., community or city). The framework is illustrated through a case study on a green campus located in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE). Data was collected from a total of 227 campus users or residents, followed by descriptive and statistical analyses using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and multiple linear regression models. Results indicate that energy saving awareness and motivation do not directly translate to actions, particularly at the workplace where a correlation coefficient of only 0.083 is observed. Factors such as respondents’ demographics, the level of control over building systems, and motivation drivers (e.g., financial, social, and environmental) highly affect energy saving actions and need through consideration for effective human-focused energy conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a case study of performing a reliable statistical procedure to evaluate the quality of HVAC systems in buildings using data retrieved from an ad hoc big data web energy platform is presented. The proposed methodology based on statistical quality control (SQC) is used to analyze the real state of thermal comfort and energy efficiency of the offices of the company FRIDAMA (Spain) in a reliable way. Non-conformities or alarms, and the actual assignable causes of these out of control states are detected. The capability to meet specification requirements is also analyzed. Tools and packages implemented in the open-source R software are employed to apply the different procedures. First, this study proposes to fit ARIMA time series models to CTQ variables. Then, the application of Shewhart and EWMA control charts to the time series residuals is proposed to control and monitor thermal comfort and energy consumption in buildings. Once thermal comfort and consumption variability are estimated, the implementation of capability indexes for autocorrelated variables is proposed to calculate the degree to which standards specifications are met. According with case study results, the proposed methodology has detected real anomalies in HVAC installation, helping to detect assignable causes and to make appropriate decisions. One of the goals is to perform and describe step by step this statistical procedure in order to be replicated by practitioners in a better way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The smart grid paradigm implies flexible demand and energy storage in order to cope with the variability of renewable energy sources. Buildings are often put forward as a potential supplier of flexibility services through demand side management (DSM) and distributed energy storage, partly as thermal energy. This paper presents a bottom-up approach for the quantification of this flexibility service. Cost curves are computed from the solution of optimal control problems with low-order models. These curves show the amount of flexibility and their associated cost. The method is generic and can be applied to heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) services, thermal energy storage (TES) and local electricity production. A case study is performed on a monitored office building in Brussels, Belgium. The results reveal a large variation in both flexibility and cost depending on time, weather, utility rates, building use and comfort requirements. The study shows that for the studied day, flexibility is not for free. The mean flexibility cost has the same order of magnitude as the imbalance price in the Belgian power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small commercial buildings in the United States consume 47% of the total primary energy of the buildings sector. Retrofitting small and medium commercial buildings poses a huge challenge for owners because they usually lack the expertise and resources to identify and evaluate cost-effective energy retrofit strategies. This paper presents the Commercial Building Energy Saver (CBES), an energy retrofit analysis toolkit, which calculates the energy use of a building, identifies and evaluates retrofit measures in terms of energy savings, energy cost savings and payback. The CBES Toolkit includes a web app (APP) for end users and the CBES Application Programming Interface (API) for integrating CBES with other energy software tools. The toolkit provides a rich set of features including: (1) Energy Benchmarking providing an Energy Star score, (2) Load Shape Analysis to identify potential building operation improvements, (3) Preliminary Retrofit Analysis which uses a custom developed pre-simulated database and, (4) Detailed Retrofit Analysis which utilizes real-time EnergyPlus simulations. CBES includes 100 configurable energy conservation measures (ECMs) that encompass IAQ, technical performance and cost data, for assessing 7 different prototype buildings in 16 climate zones in California and 6 vintages. A case study of a small office building demonstrates the use of the toolkit for retrofit analysis. The development of CBES provides a new contribution to the field by providing a straightforward and uncomplicated decision making process for small and medium business owners, leveraging different levels of assessment dependent upon user background, preference and data availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] This paper presents a novel methodology for modeling building energy performance. [•] The novelty lies in the use of lead-lag dynamics to present building energy system. [•] The developed model is simple and accurate with minimal physical parameters. [•] Comparison with benchmarks and measurements shows good results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A novel Dendrite Net based on the adaptive mean square gradient is proposed. • Energy consumption prediction and analysis model of buildings is obtained based on energy consumption data of buildings. • The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is higher than most neural network methods. • The optimization direction of building envelopes is found for reducing energy consumption. • The maximum carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by 158.17 kg. Artificial neural networks have been widely applied in construction industries. Due to dendrites of biological neurons participating in the pre-calculation of neural networks, the structure of the traditional artificial neural network needs to be adjusted subjectively. Thus, a novel dendrite net based on the adaptive mean square gradient is proposed in this paper. The energy consumption of buildings is predicted and analyzed by the proposed method to cut the carbon dioxide emissions. The adaptive mean square gradient method is used to update the weight matrix of the dendrite net method, which can avoid errors caused by selecting hidden layer nodes to improve the prediction accuracy of the proposed method. Finally, the proposed method is used to energy saving and emission reducing of the construction industry. Compared with other methods, the experimental results show the availability of the proposed method. Through predicting the heating and cooling loads based on the proposed method, the construction plan is adjusted to decrease the energy consumption of buildings. Moreover, the appliances energy consumption is predicted and analyzed by the proposed method to improve energy efficiency and cut carbon dioxide emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Temporal variation of environmental impacts related to buildings electricity consumption is modelled. • Short term (e.g. peak demand) and long term aspects (e.g. variation of production capacities) are accounted for. • The method was applied in a case study, addressing uncertainties. • Consequences of electrification in the building sector can be evaluated. • Electrification does not necessarily reduce greenhouse gases emissions. The building stock is a major contributor to energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), which can be evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). Electrification of buildings, e.g. replacing fuel and gas boilers with heat pumps, in order to reduce these emissions is often seen as an option, but this will have short term effects by increasing peak demand, and long term effects by requiring more electricity production capacities. In this paper, a methodology to account for such interaction in LCA is presented. It connects three models addressing: market allocation on a national scale over a long term period, short term variation (i.e. seasonal, daily and hourly) of the electricity mix also on a national scale, and building energy simulation at the scale of one building. This methodology has been applied to a case study including a sample of buildings in the French context, but it can be used in other countries. Six buildings have been studied over 100 years considering 50 energy transition scenarios. Results show that the environmental impacts vary more depending on the scenarios than on the types of the building. Marginal mixes considered in consequential LCA are mainly composed of coal, gas, nuclear and peak technology production which explains the highest values of the different impacts compared to average mixes used in attributional LCA. This approach allows to address uncertainties related to electricity production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, panel methods are applied in new and innovative ways to predict daily mean internal temperature demand across a heterogeneous domestic building stock over time. This research not only exploits a rich new dataset but presents new methodological insights and offers important linkages for connecting bottom-up building stock models to human behaviour. It represents the first time a panel model has been used to estimate the dynamics of internal temperature demand from the natural daily fluctuations of external temperature combined with important behavioural, socio-demographic and building efficiency variables. The model is able to predict internal temperatures across a heterogeneous building stock to within ∼0.71°C at 95% confidence and explain 45% of the variance of internal temperature between dwellings. The model confirms hypothesis from sociology and psychology that habitual behaviours are important drivers of home energy consumption. In addition, the model offers the possibility to quantify take-back (direct rebound effect) owing to increased internal temperatures from the installation of energy efficiency measures. The presence of thermostats or thermostatic radiator valves (TRVs) are shown to reduce average internal temperatures, however, the use of an automatic timer is shown to be statistically insignificant. The number of occupants, household income and occupant age are all important factors that explain a quantifiable increase in internal temperature demand. Households with children or retired occupants are shown to have higher average internal temperatures than households who do not. As expected, building typology, building age, roof insulation thickness, wall U-value and the proportion of double glazing all have positive and statistically significant effects on daily mean internal temperature. In summary, the model can be either used to make statistical inferences about the importance of different factors for explaining internal temperatures or as a predictive tool. However, a key contribution of this research is the possibility to use this model to calibrate existing building stock for behaviour and socio-demographic effects leading to improved estimations of domestic energy demand. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Background is provided about the need for tools to support regional energy baselining and efficiency planning. • 296 homes in Pennsylvania are simulated in EnergyPlus using a batch simulation tool and energy audit records. • Simulation results are scaled and compared to building level electricity use data and utility sales data. • Analysis reveals discrepancies between simulated and actual energy use that varies by utility. • The role of building simulation tools for energy baselining and efficiency planning is discussed. Building simulation tools are seeing growing use in the residential sector due to a combination of increased interest in building energy performance, more user-friendly software packages, and decreasing computing power requirements. These tools are now being applied in batch simulations, where large numbers of homes are simulated at once to understand existing building stock energy consumption and potential energy efficiency improvements to make to those stocks. As these types of applications grow, attention is needed to ensure that simulation inputs and outputs are handled with an appropriate understanding of the uncertainties involved. In this paper, we use a batch simulation tool to translate energy audit records of 296 existing single-family homes in Pennsylvania into EnergyPlus building simulation models. We compare the results of these simulations to actual metered electricity use data from these homes, representative device-level data, and local utility data to better understand the abilities and limits of such modeling practices. Results show that while batch simulations are capable of producing accurate estimates of the energy consumption of a large number of homes, many more homes had their energy consumption overestimated than underestimated, resulting in a significant net overestimate for the sample as a whole. When results are scaled up to the utility level, simulation accuracy varies by utility with net overestimates ranging from around 15% to 25%. Comparisons of individual simulation results to metered consumption identify electric space heating systems as the source of much of this error. This highlights the importance of gathering accurate, detailed information on these systems to generate reliable simulation results. NREL has recently released a batch simulation tool called ResStock that takes a more statistically robust approach to simulating representative archetype homes as opposed to actual existing homes. The results of this study suggest that the type of probabilistic treatment of building characteristics underlying that tool will provide more meaningful results than trying to simulate actual buildings. With additional validation measures similar to those used in this study, ResStock can likely be used to reliably estimate baseline energy consumption and quantify efficiency savings opportunities and can serve as a valuable decision-making tool for state, local, and utility efficiency program designers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]