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With the rapid advancement of distributed energy resources (DERs), artificial intelligence, and smart meter technologies, traditional consumers are undergoing a paradigm shift towards 'prosumers'. In this context, peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading emerges as an effective approach to enhance local energy utilization. Nevertheless, the inherent intermittency and forecasting challenges associated with renewable energy resources may magnify uncertainties in the markets, and pose a potential threat to destabilize the markets. To address this challenge, this paper presents a method to assess the economic impacts of forecasting errors and introduces a metric, the bill deviation index. Additionally, the consequences of forecasting errors on market outcomes are examined based on the mathematical model of three different pricing mechanisms. Our findings indicate that forecasting errors can lead to significant financial discrepancies, the magnitude of which is closely related to the pricing mechanisms and their dependency on energy quantity. The paper further underscores the role of variability in clearing price, balancing cost, and the supply–demand relationship in determining the economic fallout of forecasting errors. It concludes by providing insights for managing energy trading in markets marked by high forecasting errors and suggests strategies to mitigate the associated economic risks. • An economic impact assessment method considering pricing calculation principles is proposed. • The influence of forecasting errors on market outcomes is analyzed through three pricing mechanisms. • A P2P energy trading model is developed to evaluate crucial variables under various market conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to its important economic value, carbon trading is also an important tool in international politics and diplomacy. Carbon price forecast accuracy has far-reaching implications for economic development and the environment. Few existing studies have been more accurate in predicting carbon prices over longer periods. In this paper, the incremental Gaussian nonlinear trend fuzzy granulation method and the Gaussian nonlinear trend fuzzy granulation method are innovatively proposed to predict carbon prices. This study first converts carbon prices into incremental granulation time series. A time-varying core line is added to produce nonlinear trend granulation on the foundation of linear trend granulation. The nonlinear trend and residual information are then predicted using the DeeAR network, respectively, and the final prediction result is obtained by adding the predicted values for each. Moreover, a new evaluation index, the comprehensive evaluation of RMSE, MAE, and MAPE as three indicators, is proposed to consider the accuracy of the evaluation index more comprehensively and reliably. The results show that the prediction method has the smallest error in long-term prediction compared with other models. The daily closing price datasets of carbon exchanges published in Shenzhen and Beijing are used to validate the efficacy of this methodology. • A modified Gaussian nonlinear trend that can better fit the actual data is proposed. • Incremental Gaussian nonlinear trend fuzzy granulation method with F test is proposed. • A new evaluation index is proposed to make the prediction result more interpretable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to enhanced economic production as well as incentivized demanding supply management (DSM) strategies, solar photovoltaics (SPV) have experienced a phenomenal global annual growth rate but with a very limited contribution from the personal consumption sector, especially that of on-grid decentralized SPV. One of the reasons for this lies in the difficulties involved in unlocking the traditional production paradigm and lifestyle, based on centuries of conventional fossil-energy consumption. In response, this paper examines the case of Nine Dream Island in Nanjing, China, a pioneer of post-fossil emerging power supply communities providing on-grid SPV, to reveal the obstacles that lie beyond technological and economic factors involved. Empirical data including in-depth interviews illustrate the politico economic strategies of these communities in creating a new post-fossil production and consumption paradigm. In particular, it is suggested that, despite the National Development and Reform Commission’s economic driving force in the form of 0.42 ¥/kW h state subsidies in Nanjing, the complex pattern of governance structures and institutional arrangement characteristics overwhelmingly impedes public acceptance of a low-carbon model of production and consumption. Overall, the paper helps to shed light on the development and adoption of SPV as a post-fossil consumption and production technology in new market countries where administration forces provide a more important role in creating a new path-dependence for the adaptation of innovation technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Existing energy policies' impacts on long-term CO2 mitigation is limited. • Delayed NDC enhancement might result in significant reduction on energy service. • Early enhancement with carbon trading could effectively reduce the system cost. • Cost-optimal enhancing plan requires huge investment in developing regions. CO2 mitigation in the global energy system is critical in tackling climate change, each region should design its long-term strategies and implement policies accordingly to promote the energy transformation. To evaluate the impacts of existing energy policies and propose possible enhanced NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), this paper applied a 14-region global model to explore the transitions of the global and regional energy system. With the modelling of early and late NDCs enhancing plan for 2-degree target, the required energy transition of each plan was analyzed, together with the vital challenges and potential economic impacts. Model results show: 1. Existing energy policies can reduce the annual emission growth rate to 0.6% for 2015 – 2020, while their influence on long-term mitigation is limited; 2. If enhanced NDCs begin from 2030 onwards after realizing current goals, 2-degree target would become quite challenging in later period, some regions will have to cut the energy service drastically; 3. With the assumption of early enhancement and free carbon trading in the cost-optimal enhancing plan, the total cost of global energy system could be reduced by 10% in 2050, compared with the former plan; 4. Under this cost-optimal enhancing plan, developing regions may face great challenges in short to medium term, 122% of additional investment should be put in power sector in 2030, international support on both technology and finance would be essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The waterlogging disaster has become a major threat to the resilient development of cities, which needs a unified and systematic accounting framework to estimate potential waterlogging effects in terms of forming disaster prevention strategies. In this paper, we developed an emergy-based waterlogging footprint accounting framework applying depth-damage functions, input–output (IO) analysis and ecological footprint, considering both economic and environmental factors. Taking the old town Beijing as a case study, we simulated the urban waterlogging distribution with a hydrodynamic model (InfoWorks ICM) over different return periods (1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 20, and 50 years) at high resolution. This study first considered the economic impact caused by urban waterlogging to evaluate the direct economic loss and indirect economic loss by using the depth-damage function and IO model, respectively. The environmental loss was assessed with an ecological footprint and was unified by emergy with economic loss. Then, four emergy-based indicators were established to quantify the specific impacts of waterlogging on urban resilience. The results show that the waterlogging footprints grew constantly by 284.57% from 1 year to 50 years. The waterlogging footprints driven by environmental loss, which were overlooked, accounted for 13.02% of the total. The waterlogging footprint density and waterlogging resilience index showed high spatial heterogeneity, indicating that the sensitivity of subdistricts to waterlogging varies greatly. Our study provides a useful energy-based tool for assessing urban waterlogging losses and supports decision-making for waterlogging disaster mitigation and risk zoning management. • An emergy assessment of hydrological-based urban waterlogging loss was first conducted. • Losses of natural capital due to urban waterlogging disasters were quantified. • Economic and environmental losses were incorporated. • Urban waterlogging resilience was explained in context of metabolism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The impact of economic growth pressure on energy efficiency improvement is discussed. • Economic growth pressure has hindered the improvement of energy efficiency. • Heterogeneity effects exist in individual dimension and temporal dimension. Economic growth target management has been a typical feature of Chinese governments at all levels for a long time in the past decades. Based on a panel data of 188 Chinese cities, this paper examines the impact of pressure brought by economic growth target on energy efficiency improvement. The results suggest that economic growth pressure has hindered the improvement of energy efficiency. For every unit of increase in economic growth pressure, the improvement indicator of energy efficiency will decrease by 3.3%. This finding is robust, after replacing explained variables and core explanatory variables, no substantial changes are found. Sub-sample regression confirms the existence of heterogeneity effects in individual dimension and temporal dimension. Finally, by summarizing existing studies, this paper finds that the investment imbalance effect, the hindrance effect on industrial structure upgrading, and the crowding-out effect on innovation are three important ways for economic growth pressure to restrain the improvement of energy efficiency. Our findings are helpful to understand the role of the government's economic growth target management in resource allocation and energy utilization and provide a certain practical reference for China to promote high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper focuses on Swedish homeowners’ need for and perceptions about adopting building envelop energy efficiency measures. The paper is based on a questionnaire survey of 3059 homeowners (response rate of 36%) selected by stratified random sampling during the summer of 2008. The results showed that 70–90% of the respondents had no intention of adopting such a measure over the next 10years. The main reasons for non-adoption were that homeowners were satisfied with the physical condition, thermal performance, and aesthetics of their existing building envelope components. A greater proportion of respondents perceived that improved attic insulation has more advantages than energy efficient windows and improved wall insulation, but windows were more likely to be installed than improved attic insulation. Respondents gave high priority to economic factors in deciding on an energy efficiency measure. Interpersonal sources, construction companies, installers, and energy advisers were important sources of information for homeowners as they planned to adopt building envelope energy efficiency measures. Policy measures to facilitate the rate of adoption of energy efficient building envelope measures are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper discusses the economic impacts of climate change, including those on ecosystems, and whether a new backstop technology should be used under conditions of strict temperature targets. Using the dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) model, we developed a new model to calculate the optimal path by considering new backstop technologies, such as CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). We identify the effects of parameter changes based on the resulting differences in CO 2 leakage and sites, and we analyse the feasibility of CCS. In addition, we focus on ocean acidification and consider the impact on economic activity. As a result, when CCS is assumed to carry a risk of CO 2 leakage and acidification is considered to result in a decrease in utility, we find that CCS can only delay the effects of climate change, but its use is necessary to achieve strict targets, such as a 1.5 °C limit. This observation suggests that if the target temperature is too tight, we might end up employing a technology that sacrifices the ecosystem too greatly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term Load Forecasting (LTLF) plays a vital role in the planning of electric utilities. In the long run, utilities face various uncertainties caused by economic and environmental factors. These uncertainties have made LTLF more complex and inaccurate, thus, amplifying financial risks of utilities. A potent contributor to such losses in LTLF accuracy is economic shocks. This study proposes two probabilistic Time-Varying (TV) approaches to capture such shocks in LTLF and minimise accuracy loss, namely TV-XGB-X and TV-PR, and their combinations considering economic policy uncertainty. Both eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Polynomial Regression (PR) are extended to include the long-run TV effects of economic shocks as eXogeneous predictors in this paper. These models and their combinations are compared with various non-TV approaches through experiments on the monthly electricity consumption of eight energy-intensive states in the United States. The results reveal that the proposed combined approaches outperform stand-alone models on all datasets. The findings of this study can help utilities in hedging financial risks under shocks. • Proposed Time-Varying framework to detect and capture economic shocks for LTLF. • Framework includes probabilistic TV-PR, TV-XGB-X, their variants and combinations. • Compared the point and probabilistic accuracies of proposed and benchmark models. • Proposed models outperform existing benchmark models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the seven Pilot Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) in China, the ETS in Hubei province exerts significant influences. And Hubei’s economic and social contexts are very similar to China as a whole. By applying a Chinese multi-regional general equilibrium model (TermCO2), this paper simulates the economic and environmental impacts of the Hubei Pilot ETS, under a scenario based on the institutional factors of this Pilot ETS and careful consideration is given to ETS coverage. The results show that the Hubei Pilot ETS has significantly reduced carbon emission while its adverse impact on economy is relatively negligible. The carbon emission of Hubei in 2014 is reduced by 1.00% (6.98 million tons) at an average carbon price of 34.31 Yuan per ton. However, the provincial GDP only declines slightly by 0.06% (1.48 billion Yuan) and the average GDP loss is 212.09 Yuan per ton. Meanwhile, Hubei’s economic structure has been adjusted, and the provincial employment and investment rate decreases by 0.09% and 0.33% respectively. However, due to income distribution effect caused by free allowances, the provincial household consumption increases by 0.35% and the consumer price index (CPI) increases slightly by about 0.02%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blackouts or cascading outages are costly events that threaten the integrity of electric energy systems around the world. Controlled splitting is executed as the last countermeasure to reduce the undesired economic and social consequences of a blackout. In this paper, a new two-stage scheme is proposed to predict the risk of a blackout in electric energy systems. In the first stage, the boundaries of electric islands are determined using a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming model that minimizes the cost of generation re-dispatch and load curtailment. In the second step, a data-mining technique is perfected to predict the risk of electrical separation of an electric island from the rest of the network. Each predictor is trained based on the phasor-measurement data taken at the synchronous generator terminals. Using a wide-area measurement system, the required phasor measurements are gathered and processed in the Energy Management System. Various scenarios, including the island and non-island conditions, are generated and then utilized by the decision-tree classification technique to predict the risk of a blackout. The proposed algorithm is simulated over the IEEE 39-bus test system to demonstrate its performance in online applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Carbon emissions and energy data are used to show the rationale for global hydrogen trade. • We identify countries likely to import or export hydrogen, highlighting cost differences. • Our international trade model highlights renewable energy, carbon policies, and market distances. • Numerical simulations show a market shift from fossil-based to renewable energy-based hydrogen. Existing research offers insights into production, operation, and cost efficiencies for the expanding variety of hydrogen (H 2) technologies, suggesting that not a single one, but a portfolio of technologies, may be competitive in emerging markets. In turn, policy studies point out that economic and market conditions may be altered to promote certain options, for instance, renewable energy-based "green" hydrogen over fossil fuel-based alternatives. Such regionally oriented analyses, however useful, do not provide a perspective on a global market or international trade development, which is critical for infrastructure development, demand expansion, and supply commitments. This paper aims to fill this gap by addressing two interrelated questions: 1) what are the prerequisites for hydrogen trade in the context of a global transition to carbon neutrality and 2) how will regional energy system characteristics and regulations affect the growth and the "color" of the hydrogen market? Focused on green H 2 , we start our analysis with the evaluation of renewable energy generation potential of individual countries to identify geographic and economic factors and constraints for regional H 2 development. Revealing resource-rich countries with green H 2 export potential and resource-poor regions, likely green H 2 importers, we turn to energy price data showing why green H 2 is likely to face competition from other H 2 colors. We capture those insights with an international hydrogen trade model, focusing on H 2 supply diversity and factors determining local demand, including prices for renewable energy versus fossil fuels, emission constraints, and cost associated with carbon utilization and or disposal. Incorporating supply and demand drivers within a common framework enables us to embrace the complexity and to understand the discrepancies in existing H 2 trade projections. We use the model to explore the role of carbon regulations, rate of renewable energy adoption, transportation costs, and input energy prices in the future H 2 market evolution. To gain further insights into the future trade dynamics, we perform simulations mimicking the emerging German market. Hence, our work provides a unique comprehensive energy system perspective at the global scale, supported by analytical and empirical data analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Levelized costs, economic impact multiplier and share of domestic impact are assessed for geothermal district heating. • Choosing the right share of geothermal heat in the district heating is crucial for levelized costs. • The choice of auxiliary heat strongly influences district heating's economic impacts. • Standalone geothermal systems have higher domestic economic impacts. • Integrating waste incineration heat often maximizes both competitiveness and economic impacts. Geothermal district heating could play an important role towards climate change mitigation, but its slow uptake implies that it is cost competitive only under specific sets of conditions, including drilling success and design of the district heating. Even in cases when geothermal district heating may be less cost competitive than other alternatives, expenditure that occurs during its development brings indirect economic impact that could also benefit domestic economy. Using the case study of the State of Geneva in Switzerland, this paper analyzes cost competitiveness and economic impacts of 5′892 decision paths (combinations of decisions) to develop geothermal district heating, including the choice of auxiliary heat source, and uses comprehensive sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential decisions. The right share of geothermal coverage in the heat mix to achieve an optimum combination of investment costs and geothermal heat production, and the integration of waste incineration as auxiliary heat source are crucial for cost competitiveness. High economic impact multipliers are created by geothermal systems incorporating individual pellet boilers as auxiliary heat source. High share of domestic impact consistently occurs in the case of standalone geothermal installations, especially when they are used with second or third generation of district heating. Combining geothermal district heating from medium and deep wells (1′500 m and 2′500 m) with heat from waste incineration creates synergies where above-average cost competitiveness and economic impacts are achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past two decades, many countries have used aggressive policies such as feed-in tariffs and power purchase agreements to promote renewable energy. These policies have been very successful in several countries, initiating large changes in the structure of energy sectors, and conferring large environmental, economic, and social impacts. In this paper, we quantify these impacts over the period 2000–2010 for Portugal; a country that witnessed a substantial increase in renewable energy penetration rates, with the share of wind power in electricity production jumping from 0.4% in 2000 to 16.8% in 2010. We use a novel, hybrid energy-economic input–output model to compare the historical energy policy against a counterfactual scenario in which the surge in energy subsidies and concurrent expansion of renewable energies did not take place. We consider the impact of renewable energy policy stemming from three propagation modes – operational, investment, and opportunity costs – in both the energy sector and the rest of the economy. This is the first time such a comprehensive analysis has been undertaken. Our findings show that, in the period under consideration, the combined historical renewable energy policy and renewable energy developments yielded a clear reduction in emissions, in excess of 7.2 MtCO 2 eq, an increase in GDP of 1557 M€, and a creation of 160 thousand job-years. These estimates do not include opportunity costs from future FIT payments that projects built in this period may be entitled to. Therefore, this work will be of critical interest to RES-E and climate change policy makers, other scientists, and the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Effort sharing schemes and recursive dynamic CGE model were combined for economic impact and energy transformation in China under a 2 ℃ climate target. • SSP1-2.6 scenario is modified to reflect China's future energy transition strategy. • All sectors exclude service will face negative economic impacts, and national fossil energy consumption will decrease a lot. • Evaluation algorithm is developed to access effort sharing schemes in different dimensions. Pursuing 2 ℃ warming limit, as a global climate target, would not be achieved without the mitigation contribution of each country. At present, possible ranges of regional impact of 2 ℃ climate target mostly focused on multi-model simulation results lack of the comparison of multiple effort-sharing schemes. This paper presents a reginal analysis framework introduced 10 different effort-sharing schemes and SSPs-RCPs mixed scenarios, and finds out how 2 ℃ climate target affects China in economy and energy transformation and balance the trade-offs of each effort-sharing scheme. To measure how to achieve 2 ℃ climate target in China, we developed an improved recursive dynamic CGE model including carbon taxes and CCS technologies. We find that carbon budgets of 2 ℃ climate target in China under various effort-sharing schemes would be 289.8–576.7 Gt during 2010–2050, accounting for 9.5–19.0% in the world. The mitigation cost would range from 0.2% to 2.95%, and the average cost would equal GDP level in 2018. The fossil energy consumption would decrease by 17.1–57.9%, equaling the consumption level before 2010. Differentiated emission pathway with similar the carbon budget, per capita convergence (PCC) would have less economic cost than grandfathering rule. We develop an evaluation algorithm to take economy, energy and emission reduction into account, and find that PCC and ability to pay (ATP) rules would be accepted for China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to assess the economic advantages of an innovative solvent for CO 2 capture on state-of-the-art solvents . The CESAR-1 solvent, which is an aqueous solution of 2-amino-2-methyl-propanol (AMP) and piperazine (PZ), is applied both to advanced supercritical pulverised (ASC) coal and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants with post-combustion CO 2 capture units. The methodology includes process model developments using commercial simulation programs, which determine the thermodynamic properties of the selected power plants and the performance of the CO 2 capture units. The results show that the techno-economic benefit of CESAR-1 versus MEA is more significant for ASC than that for NGCC due to a higher concentration of CO 2 in the flue gas. This follows from the fact that the switch from MEA to CESAR-1 solvents reduces the electricity cost by 4.16 €/MW h in the case of the ASC plant compared to 0.67 €/MW h in connection with the proposed NGCC plant. Based on the above figures, we can conclude that CESAR-1 reduces the cost of CO 2 avoided compared to MEA by 6 €/t CO 2 and 2 €/t CO 2 for the selected ASC and NGCC plants respectively. In view of that, the techno-economics can be improved if the CO 2 capture plant is designed to operate using the CESAR-1 absorption technology due to a reduction in the regeneration energy and the solvent recirculation rate (considering its higher CO 2 net capacity). However, the variable costs of running the capture plant are higher for the CESAR-1 solvent due to the higher cost of the amines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-algae have been recognized as a promising feedstock for biofuel production. Effective combining microalgae cultivation with wastewater treatment can reduce CO 2 emissions and the cost of microalgae biofuel production, making it more feasible. However, the biomass and lipid productivity must be improved prior to large-scale production. The paper is therefore giving a critical review on microalgae productivity towards biofuel production focusing on the influencing factors in terms of strains and cultivation condition. Based on this review, we recommend the mixed native algae species and employment of two-stage cultivation strategy as potential breakthrough toward sustainable and economic microalgae biofuel production using wastewater as a medium for cultivation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a methodology for the economic optimisation of the sizing of Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) whilst enhancing the participation of Wind Power Plants (WPP) in network primary frequency control support. The methodology was designed flexibly, so it can be applied to different energy markets and to include different ESS technologies. The methodology includes the formulation and solving of a Linear Programming (LP) problem. The methodology was applied to the particular case of a 50 MW WPP, equipped with a Vanadium Redox Flow battery (VRB) in the UK energy market. Analysis is performed considering real data on the UK regular energy market and the UK frequency response market. Data for wind power generation and energy storage costs are estimated from literature. Results suggest that, under certain assumptions, ESSs can be profitable for the operator of a WPP that is providing frequency response. The ESS provides power reserves such that the WPP can generate close to the maximum energy available. The solution of the optimisation problem establishes that an ESS with a power rating of 5.3 MW and energy capacity of about 3 MW h would be enough to provide such service whilst maximising the incomes for the WPP operator considering the regular and frequency regulation UK markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the main international carbon trading market, in which European Union CO2 allowances (EUAs) are traded with increasing intensity. In order to help the market participants mitigate the market price risk, one possible way is to analyze the time range of market efficiency and the price discovery mechanism of EUA futures market and spot market. For this purpose, the paper provides the unit root test and the cointegration test for the EUA futures market during 2009–2011. Our result shows that the EUA futures market is efficient within 1month. Furthermore, it illustrates that the impact of the price will continue for 3months, examined by a vector error correction model (VECM). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Occupants of dwellings with grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems can often benefit financially from exporting electricity to the grid. When export prices are lower than import prices, however, occupants are incentivised to time-shift demand in order to avoid exports and reduce imports. To maximise this potential financial benefit, the addition of batteries to the PV system has been proposed to take advantage of the specific commercial opportunity presented to the occupant of trading exported power during the day for imported power during the evening. This paper therefore assesses the economic and environmental impact of the use of lead-acid batteries in grid-connected PV systems under current feed-in tariff arrangements in the UK. The development of a lead-acid battery model is described, which is used to simulate hypothetical power flows using measured data on domestic PV systems in the UK. The simulation results indicate that the net benefit of the battery is negative, even when considering an idealised lossless battery. When realistic energy losses and lifetimes are accounted for, the financial loss for the systems considered here can approach £1000/year. The environmental impact of the use and production of the lead-acid battery is also described, and also found to be negative, further strengthening the argument against the use of lead-acid batteries in domestic grid-connected PV systems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ireland is currently striving to achieve an ambitious target of supplying 40% of electricity demand with renewable energy by 2020. With the vast majority of this being met by wind energy, an intermittent and non-dispatchable energy source, it is inevitable that frequent substantial curtailment will occur during times of excessive generation. This paper investigates the potential for demand side management to limit the requirement for curtailment and further facilitate the integration of renewable energy by shifting the timing of electrical demand in response to various signals including pricing and wind availability. Using a domestic dishwasher as an example, significant increases in the amount of renewable electricity consumed are demonstrated with simultaneous financial savings for the consumer. Furthermore, secondary benefits such as peak-time demand reductions in excess of 60% are observed. The impact of employing demand side management based on imperfect day-ahead market predictions is also analysed and the resulting deficiencies are quantified. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper proposes a long-term electricity market analysis framework to assess the impacts of the demand response and smart metering infrastructure implementation on market price fluctuations and system reliability. Based on the probabilistic production cost simulation method that has been widely used in conventional power system planning, the suggested framework considers the uncertainties of the demand and the generator availability in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, the framework considers the strategic interactions between generators (or, equivalently generation companies) and incorporates price responsive demand enabled with smart metering. To demonstrate how market equilibrium price changes and the system reliability enhances as the demand response with smart metering increases, the framework is applied to an experimental system based on the IEEE 1996 Reliability Test System (RTS) data, followed by a case study of 2010 Korean electricity markets. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the development and economic potential of the photobioreactor (PBR) technology for energy purposes, i.e. production of hydrogen or biofuels. The approach adopted is to consider the technology, its expected costs and revenues, and related risks from an investor perspective. To this end we develop an investment model that is used to calculate the economic feasibility of PBRs for different scenarios, including a best-case scenario, with plenty of sunlight and water, inexpensive nutrients, high prices for hydrogen and biomass, and low other costs. The best-case scenario is compared to a scenario with less favorable boundary conditions. We find that PBR efficiencies will likely be less than 10%, with typical values between 1.8% and 5.6%. We also find that hydrogen production costs would be lower than those for biodiesel or biogas from solid biomass produced in PBRs. Compared to biofuels from traditional agriculture there is a great advantage for the PBR technology if land is scarce, because land is used more efficiently. Since PBRs can be designed as a closed system they can be applied in very dry regions. In the long term this might enable this promising concept to penetrate the energy supply market. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • Tighter EU ETS target (−63% instead of −43% in 2030) speeds up transformation by 3–17 years. • Renewable share >74% in 2030, EU-wide coal phase-out almost completed by 2030. • Tighter target decreases cumulative emissions by 54%, increases costs by only 5%. • Carbon prices increase to 129EUR/tCO 2 in 2030 under ambitious ETS target. • Unavailability of fossil CCS and/or nuclear does not affect results. The EU Green Deal calls for climate neutrality by 2050 and emission reductions of 50–55% in 2030 in comparison to 1990. Achieving these reductions requires a substantial tightening of the regulations of the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS). This paper explores how the power sector would have to change in reaction to a tighter EU ETS target, and analyses the technological and economic implications. To cover the major ETS sectors, we combine a detailed power sector model with a marginal-abatement cost curve representation of industry emission abatement. We find that tightening the target would speed up the transformation by 3–17 years for different parts of the electricity system, with renewables contributing 74% of the electricity in 2030, EU-wide coal use almost completely phased-out by 2030 instead of 2045, and zero electricity generation emissions reached by 2040. Carbon prices within the EU ETS would more than triple to 129€/tCO 2 in 2030, reducing cumulated power sector emissions from 2017 to 2057 by 54% compared to a scenario with the current target. This transformation would come at limited costs: total discounted power system costs would only increase by 5%. We test our findings against a number of sensitivities: an increased electricity demand, which might arise from sector coupling, increases deployment of wind and solar and prolongs gas usage. Not allowing transmission expansion beyond 2020 levels shifts investments from wind to PV, hydrogen and batteries, and increases total system costs by 3%. Finally, the unavailability of fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) or further nuclear investments does not impact results. Unavailability of bioenergy-based CCS (BECCS) has a visible impact (18% increase) on cumulated power sector emissions, thus shifting more of the mitigation burden to the industry sector, but does not increase electricity prices or total system costs (<1% increase). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The economic and environmental feasibility of peer-to-peer trading are analysed. • Novel algorithms and techniques to determine feasibility are presented. • Results suggest Peer-to-peer trading could become economically feasible within 10 years. • Reconductoring is more economically feasible the batteries & curtailment as a constraint management strategy. • The same observation is made when analysed from an environmental perspective. With the recent removal of the solar PV feed-in tariff on ≤4 kWp arrays, installation of domestic rooftop PV has become significantly less commercially feasible in the UK. Whilst alternative trading schemes are beginning to emerge, the adequacy of their return on investment is questionable. However, the extent to which installation may need to be subsidised has not yet been quantified. Furthermore, the extent to which increased peer-to-peer trading could contribute to network constraints, and the environmental and economic costs of managing such schemes, have not been examined extensively. In this paper, the subsidy required to encourage a rooftop PV uptake rate of 0.5% homeowners/year is determined and the costs of constraint management are calculated for various network topologies. The problems presented are solved using time series analysis, power flow simulations, and optimisation processes with Monte Carlo methods. It was found that P2P trading is the most promising post subsidy revenue stream, reducing the required feed-in tariff from £0.14 to £0.10 for systems installed in 2020. Furthermore, it was found that with P2P trading, requirement for feed-in tariff support should end by 2032. Reconductoring was the most economically effective constraint management strategy, costing £50 k to £200 k less than curtailment when applied to 29 networks over 30 years. From an environmental perspective, it was found that reconductoring had a carbon footprint 2 orders of magnitude lower than curtailment & battery storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Empirical economic models give a limited view of the energy conversion chain. • The Multi-Factor Energy Input-Output model couples economic and physical models. • Brexit scenarios are assumed as the case study to test the proposed methodology. • The adopted methodology provides insights about the viability of Brexit scenarios. The assessment of the prospective, economy-wide, economic and environmental impact of large-scale policy shocks is currently performed via general equilibrium models, relying on background input–output data usually characterized by a very aggregated definition of the energy conversion chain. Thus, such models are not always able to properly assess the impact of policy shocks on the energy conversion chain. On the other hand, empirical models based on physical data provide a detailed picture of the energy conversion chain but are unable to comprehensively address energy-economy interactions. This paper introduces an approach to analyze the impact of large-scale policy shocks with special focus on international trade and global energy conversion chains. The approach relies upon an empirical meso-economic equilibrium model and a physical supply and use model of the energy conversion chain. The link between the models is provided by the Multi-Factor Energy Input-Output model. The proposed approach is formalized and applied to assess the economic and energy impact of different Brexit scenarios, returning the related impact in terms of changes in value added generation, change in production of energy carriers and change in energy-related CO 2 emissions. It is found that a highly disaggregated picture of the energy supply chain provides fundamental insights to assess the physical viability of economic scenarios. Therefore, the proposed method reveals important synergies that may arise from the joint application of the economic and physical models, hence becoming a suitable candidate to provide insights and guidance for policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Production- and Consumption-based carbon emissions taxation schemes are revised. • Carbon policies are applied to Europe, assessing economic and environmental impacts. • The World Trade Model coupled with Exiobase MRIO database is used for the analysis. • Application of Production-based carbon taxation leads to carbon leakage. • Results of Production- and Consumption-based schemes are comparatively analysed. Policy initiatives towards reduction of CO 2 emissions implemented so far are grounded on the so-called Production-Based paradigm: this approach allocates responsibility of emissions to countries that directly caused such emissions, without taking into account all the indirect contributions to CO 2 emissions caused outside country's borders, eventually leading to the so-called carbon leakage phenomenon. In this paper, the alternative Consumption-Based approach is proposed, and its effectiveness assessed: according to this approach, policy initiatives allocates responsibility for CO 2 emissions proportionally to the CO 2 emissions embedded in goods and services required by industries as inputs for production. Global environmental and economic consequences of carbon emissions reduction policies, applied at the European level based on both Production- and Consumption-Based paradigms, are comparatively assessed based on the World Trade Model with Bilateral Trades. Results of this study suggest that defining CO 2 emissions policies based on a Consumption-Based paradigm seems to be the most effective way to reduce the global carbon emissions, avoiding the carbon leakage phenomenon which may occur in economies regulated by Production-Based policies. Indeed, an imposed reduction in CO 2 emissions embedded in EU final demand through a Consumption-Based Accounting policy would result in a global CO 2 emissions reduction up to almost 1.2 Gton. On the other hand, an imposed reduction in direct EU CO 2 emissions according to a PBA approach would result in an overall increase in global carbon emissions up to almost 0.8 Gton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A definition of destination charging with extended view on user behavior is proposed. • Losses in potential demand associated with user behavior are formulated and quantified. • Charging station operators are capable of counteracting losses caused by user behavior. • Arrival and dwell time have a strong impact on demand covered by supermarkets. With an increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road the need for charging stations increases. Some of these stations are placed at the destinations of drivers rather than along the route of their trip. The aim of this paper is to highlight the importance of user behavior in the context of public destination charging and to provide an extension for existing evaluation methods. We identify losses in demand and potential revenue and show how they are influenced by user behavior. Different scenarios are analyzed to demonstrate the effect of single parameters and to quantify their impact on revenue. To demonstrate the interaction between parameters we present a case study on supermarkets in a medium sized German city. The results show that user behavior is an important factor for the economic evaluation of public destination charging stations and therefore needs to be considered in future evaluation methods. In addition, we show that charging station operators have the possibility to counteract losses by providing more charging stations or increasing the charging power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Detailed energy cost structures are integrated into a recursive dynamic CGE model. • Investment support and electricity import price changes are considered. • Consistent Lithuanian energy development scenarios are analysed. • Domestic electricity does not necessarily provide the net economic benefits. • The advantages of international cooperation are highlighted. The development of domestic energy generation is often expected to provide benefits to the economy through, for example, improved energy trade balance and jobs created. However, the economic impacts of energy development scenarios are not limited to the energy sector, and the decision makers must consider the impacts on the entire economy. In this paper, we analyse the full impacts of increased domestic electricity generation in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. Realistic energy development scenarios are modelled using the MESSAGE energy system model and considered to be exogenously described energy pathways that generate responses from the remaining economy. These technically and economically consistent energy scenarios are incorporated into the computable general equilibrium model through the creation of fixed, variable, and investment cost structures for the energy forms considered. Model application in Lithuanian case revealed the interchangeable character of electricity imports and local generation based on a relatively significant share of imported resources. Depending on electricity market conditions, scenarios with higher domestic electricity generation levels might fail to provide substantial economic benefits: although increasing electricity import prices would create preconditions to increase domestic electricity production and turn Lithuania to the net electricity exporter, gross domestic product (GDP) might decrease due to the negative impacts on other economic activities. International cooperation for least-cost clean energy supply might be economically beneficial to energy importing countries and increasing domestic electricity generation should not be set as the ultimate goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper summarizes the research of Monte Carlo simulation-based Economic, Energy and Environmental (3E) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of the three Biomass-based Fuel Ethanol (BFE) projects in China. Our research includes both theoretical study and case study. In the theoretical study part, 3E LCA models are structured, 3E Index Functions are defined and the Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to address uncertainties in BFE life cycle analysis. In the case study part, projects of Wheat-based Fuel Ethanol (WFE) in Central China, Corn-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Northeast China, and Cassava-based Fuel Ethanol (CFE) in Southwest China are evaluated from the aspects of economic viability and investment risks, energy efficiency and airborne emissions. The life cycle economy assessment shows that KFE project in Guangxi is viable, while CFE and WFE projects are not without government’s subsidies. Energy efficiency assessment results show that WFE, CFE and KFE projects all have positive Net Energy Values. Emissions results show that the corn-based E10 (a blend of 10% gasoline and 90% ethanol by volume), wheat-based E10 and cassava-base E10 have less CO2 and VOC life cycle emissions than conventional gasoline, but wheat-based E10 and cassava-based E10 can generate more emissions of CO, CH4, N2O, NO x , SO2, PM10 and corn-based E10 can has more emissions of CH4, N2O, NO x , SO, PM10. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Similar to many other countries, all nations in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) have planned or are planning to develop strong national biofuel programs. The overall goal of this paper is to better understand the impacts of global and regional biofuels on agriculture and the rest of the economy, with a specific focus on the GMS. Based on a modified multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, this study reveals that global biofuel development will significantly increase agricultural prices and production and change trade in agricultural commodities in the GMS and the rest of world. While biofuel in the GMS will have little impacts on global prices, it will have significant effects on domestic agricultural production, land use, trade, and food security. The results also show that the extent of impacts from biofuel is highly dependent on international oil prices and the degree of substitution between biofuel and gasoline. The findings of this study have important policy implications for the GMS countries and the rest of world. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a broad overview of the social and environmental costs and benefits of biofuels in Asia. The major factors that will determine the impacts of biofuels are: (1) their contribution to land-use change, (2) the feedstocks used, and (3) issues of technology and scale. Biofuels offer economic benefits, and in the right circumstances can reduce emissions and make a small contribution to energy security. Feedstocks that involve the conversion of agricultural land will affect food security and cause indirect land-use change, while those that replace forests, wetlands or natural grasslands will increase emissions and damage biodiversity. Biofuels from cellulose, algae or waste will avoid some of these problems, but come with their own set of uncertainties and risks. In order to ensure net societal benefits of biofuel production, governments, researchers, and companies will need to work together to carry out comprehensive assessments, map suitable and unsuitable areas, and define and apply standards relevant to the different circumstances of each country. The greatest benefits may come from feedstocks produced on a modest scale as co-products of smart technologies developed for phytoremediation, waste disposal and emissions reduction. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Asia’s largest biofuels producers are currently Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, China and India. This paper first examines the current status of biofuels in these countries, including the national development targets, strategies, incentives and policies. It then identifies the fundamental driving forces behind the development and promotion of these industries and considers their economic, social and environmental impacts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]