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The power sector in many developing countries face challenges of a fast-rising electricity demand in urban areas and an urgency of improved electricity access in rural areas. In the context of climate change, these development needs are challenged by the vital goal of CO 2 mitigation. This paper investigates plausible trade-offs between electrification and CO 2 mitigation in a developing country context, taking Indonesia as a case study. Aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement, the Government of Indonesia has announced its voluntary pledge to reduce 29% of its GHGs emissions against the business as usual scenario by 2030. 11% of this should be attained by the energy sector. We incorporate the Indonesian Paris pledge into the modelling of capacity expansion of the Java-Bali power system, which is the largest power system in Indonesia. The LEAP model is used for the analysis in this study. Firstly, we validate the LEAP model using historical data of the national electricity system. Secondly, we develop and analyse four scenarios of the Java-Bali power system expansion from the base year 2015 through to 2030. These include a reference scenario (REF) to reflect a continuation of the present energy mix (REF), then a shift from coal to natural gas (NGS) (natural gas), followed by an expansion of renewable energy (REN) and, finally, the least-cost option (OPT). The shift to natural gas decreases future CO 2 emissions by 38.2 million ton, helping to achieve the CO 2 mitigation target committed to. Likewise, an escalation of renewable energy development in the Java-Bali islands cuts the projected CO 2 emissions by 38.9 million ton and, thus, assures meeting the target. The least-cost scenario attains the targeted emission reduction, but at 33% and 52% lower additional costs compared to NGS and REN, respectively. The cost-effectiveness of CO 2 mitigation scenarios range from 14.9 to 41.8 US$/tCO 2 e. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An integration model for biomass to methanol supply chain is built. • Using an agent-based simulation–optimization is recommended in analyzing and reporting results. • Two different technological pathways of producing methanol from biomass are benchmarked. • Major decision making is included in the agent-based simulation–optimization model. • Methanol from biogas is more favorable than gasification technology. Methanol is a key product in the chemical industry, not only for producing other higher economic value chemicals, but also serves as a source of renewable energy that can substantially reduce carbon emissions. However, limited data are available on methanol total supply chain costs that consists of production, biomass cost, investment cost and the efficiency of the conversion processes. This paper recommends using an agent-based simulation–optimization in analyzing and reporting results by system elements (techno-economic assessment) or unit processes (life cycle assessment) as well as by the overall product system, of methanol supply chain. Major decision making are included in the agent-based simulation–optimization model to evaluate methanol synthesis pathways. This evaluation includes biomass and methanol ordering policy, capital budgeting during the lifetime of the methanol supply chain, carbon emissions per metric ton of methanol with specific focus on contribution to Indonesia Gross Domestic Product. The principal results obtained from the agent-based simulation show a better conversion technology pathway that leads to lower carbon emissions, higher internal rate of return, shorter payback period, and less price sensitivity of the methanol supply chain. The article proposes methanol from biogas as the chosen conversion technology pathway by considering its capability of sequestering carbon dioxide from bio-digester and lower capital investment, as well as its economic attractiveness to methanol production investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In Indonesia, the high subsidy on fossil fuel significantly burdens the country’s economy. The partial replacement of fossil fuel by biofuel in the transportation sector would significantly reduce fossil oil consumption. To enable this replacement, a model was built to predict the effects of biofuel in the energy system. This paper examines the importance of technological changes in biofuel production. The objective is to find the optimal net energy balance under land and technology constraints. An optimization model to find this optimum was developed by using GAMS as a tool to provide the optimal answer about the potential of biofuel production in Indonesia in a scenario of technology development and a base scenario. The model shows that a net energy balance can be achieved with up to 3.8kPJ in the technology scenario and 0.9kPJ in the base scenario (a scenario describing present government policy). The export value could rise to 33 billion US$ in the technology scenario. In the base scenario, the export value of biofuel drops from 7 billion US$ in 2023 and further declines thereafter due to the low growth in land allocation whilst domestic demand is increasing. The lowest production cost is achieved with palm oil production at 9.5 US$/GJ in 2025. The net emission balance in the base scenario could achieve 54Mtce, while in the technology scenario it could achieve 212Mtce. The technology scenario relies on technological changes through R&D and economies of scale, which are not considered in the base scenario. The outcome of the model is that technological changes could have a positive impact on the introduction of biofuel in the transportation sector in Indonesia, i.e.: a higher net energy balance, higher export value, lower production cost and higher net emission balance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Near-optimal future generation portfolios considering cost uncertainties are mapped. • Clustering techniques are applied to group technology mixes with similar patterns. • Reliability-cost-emissions outcomes of the clustered technology mixes are compared. • A wide range of technology mixes show reliable, low cost options to lower emissions. The electricity sector has a key role to play in the sustainable energy transition. The falling costs of wind and solar PV have added to both the opportunities yet also challenges of balancing sometimes competing industry objectives of costs, security, and environmental impacts. This paper presents novel techniques for assessing possible future industry generation portfolios in three ways: (1) incorporating explicit metrics for energy trilemma objectives into modelling, (2) using the optimization process of evolutionary programming to map the solution space of 'high performing', near least-cost, portfolio solutions, and (3) applying boundary min–max cases and clustering to categorize these varied portfolios to better facilitate planning and policy making. We use an open-source evolutionary programming tool, National Electricity Market Optimiser, to assess possible future generation portfolios for Indonesia's Java-Bali interconnected power system. Our findings highlight the wide range of possible portfolios that might potentially deliver similar total industry costs, and their different security and environmental implications. In particular, additional solar photovoltaic deployment appears a low-risk opportunity to reduce costs and emissions compared to more fossil-fuel oriented mixes. Our novel techniques may be useful for the energy modelling community seeking to better understand and communicate complex, uncertain, and multi-dimensional choices for electricity industry planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Asia’s largest biofuels producers are currently Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, China and India. This paper first examines the current status of biofuels in these countries, including the national development targets, strategies, incentives and policies. It then identifies the fundamental driving forces behind the development and promotion of these industries and considers their economic, social and environmental impacts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]