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• Irradiance separation and transposition modeling are the two most critical steps. • 13% MAE, 12% RMSE and 23–33% skill score improvement is possible by model selection. • Detailed physical model chains, inlc. reflection and shading, have the lowest MAE. • Simple models have the lowest RMSE, but high bias and underdispersed forecast. • Wind speed has only marginal effect on physical photovoltaic power forecasting. Forecasting the power production of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power plants is essential for both the profitability and the prospects of the technology. Physically inspired modelling represents a common approach in calculating the expected power output from numerical weather prediction data. The model selection has a high effect on physical PV power forecasting accuracy, as the difference between the most and least accurate model chains is 13% in mean absolute error (MAE), 12% in root mean square error (RMSE), and 23–33% in skill scores for a PV plant on average. The power forecast performance analysis performed and verified for one-year 15-min resolution production data of 16 PV plants in Hungary for day-ahead and intraday time horizons on all possible combinations of nine direct and diffuse irradiance separation, ten tilted irradiance transposition, three reflection loss, five cell temperature, four PV module performance, two shading loss, and three inverter models. The two most critical calculation steps are identified as irradiance separation and transposition modelling, while the inverter models are the least important. Absolute and squared errors are two conflicting metrics, as the more detailed models result in the lowest MAE, while the simplest ones have the lowest RMSE. Wind speed forecasts have only a marginal effect on the PV power prediction. The results of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of the physical forecasting approach in the research community, while the main conclusions are also beneficial for PV plant owners in preparing their generation forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Technical, economic and environmental modeling frameworks are proposed. • Economic and environmental optima of hybrid renewable energy systems are different. • Local climatic conditions highly influence the impacts and the optimal design. • Single- and multi-objective optimization both have advantages and disadvantages. • Installing photovoltaics is the cheapest way to decrease environmental impacts. The rapid spread of renewables made it essential to design optimal hybrid renewable energy systems (HRES) with the distinctive economic and environmental impacts of each technology in mind. According to a comprehensive literature review, very few studies consider life-cycle environmental impacts in small-scale hybrid renewable energy system optimization. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a multi-objective design framework for household-scale systems based on the technical modeling of several typical components. Solar photovoltaic, wind turbine, solar heat collector, heat pump, heat storage, battery, and as a novelty, heat insulation thickness are considered. Backup power is either drawn from the grid or produced by a diesel generator in grid-connected and off-grid scenarios, respectively. Single objective optimization using genetic algorithm resulted in the least cost and the least environmental footprint options in a case study of three different locations across Europe. Then, Pareto-optimal solutions between the two extremities were explored with a multi-objective genetic algorithm. Single objective results show substantial differences between environmental and economic optima, while multi-objective optimization proved to be an efficient tool to investigate the trade-offs between the two conflicting goals. Solar photovoltaics is proved to be the most competitive technology to reduce environmental impacts in the case of grid-connected systems. Off-grid systems, however, benefit the most from a balanced mix of different renewable energy sources. Life-cycle impacts in the design of systems involving renewables is proven to be relevant while potential applications of the framework are also revealed. Further research areas, as well as the limitations of the methodology are identified in the conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]