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1. Bayesian rules and stochastic models for high accuracy prediction of solar radiation.

Author

Voyant, Cyril, Darras, Christophe, Muselli, Marc, Paoli, Christophe, Nivet, Marie-Laure, and Poggi, Philippe

Subjects
*BAYESIAN analysis, *STOCHASTIC models, *SOLAR radiation, *ENERGY consumption, *TIME series analysis, *ARTIFICIAL intelligence
Abstract

Highlights: [•] Global radiation prediction and PV energy integration. [•] Artificial intelligence and stochastic modeling in order to use the time series formalism. [•] Using Bayesian rules to select models. [•] MLP and ARMA forecasters are equivalent (nRMSE close to 40.5% for the both). [•] The hybridization of the three predictors (ARMA, MLP and persistence) induces very good results (nRMSE=36.6%). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Published
2014
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