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The Hunter valley region in NSW Australia is an area with a heavy coal mining presence. As some mines come to their end of life, options are being investigated to improve the topsoil on post mining land for greater plant growth, which may allow economically beneficial farmland to be created. This research is part of an investigation into mixing a mine waste material, coal tailings, with topsoil in order to produce an improved soil for plant growth. Implementing such a solution requires estimation of the drying path of the water retention curves for the tailings and topsoil used. Instead of a lengthy laboratory measurement, a prediction of the drying curve is convenient in this context. No existing prediction models were found that were suitable for these mine materials, hence this paper proposes a simple and efficient model that can more accurately predict drying curves for these mine materials. The drying curves of two topsoils and two tailings from Australian coal mines were measured and compared with predictions using the proposed model, which performs favorably compared to several existing models in the literature. Additionally, the proposed model is assessed using data from a variety of fine- and coarse-grained materials in the literature. It is shown that the proposed model is overall more accurate than every other model assessed, indicating the model may be useful for various materials other than those considered in this study.

As autonomous driving technology develops, the advantages and disadvantages of autonomous vehicles emerge. In order for automated vehicles to find a place in society, public opinion and acceptance are important, and a number of studies about public opinion and acceptance are underway. In this paper, we investigated the relation between cross cultural differences and public opinion on automated vehicles. Through a literature review, public opinion in various countries, including China, India, Japan, the U.S., the U.K., and Australia, was collected. Through these data, the influence of cross cultural differences in public opinion was identified, and statistical models for predicting public opinion about autonomous vehicles were developed. In addition, the prediction models were validated through the results of the survey conducted in this paper. As a result, the influence of cross cultural differences on public opinion about automated vehicles was confirmed.

In recent years, researchers have investigated the development of artificial neural networks (ANN) and finite element models (FEM) for predicting crack propagation in reinforced concrete (RC) members. However, most of the developed prediction models have been limited to focus on individual isolated RC members without considering the interaction of members in a structure subjected to hazard loads, due to earthquake and wind. This research develops models to predict the evolution of the cracks in the RC beam-column joint (BCJ) region. The RC beam-column joint is subjected to lateral cyclic loading. Four machine learning models are developed using Rapidminer to predict the crack width experienced by seven RC beam-column joints. The design parameters associated with RC beam-column joints and lateral cyclic loadings in terms of drift ratio are used as inputs. Several prediction models are developed, and the highest performing neural networks are selected, refined, and optimized using the various split data ratios, number of inputs, and performance indices. The error in predicting the experimental crack width is used as a performance index.

Breast cancer prediction datasets are usually class imbalanced, where the number of data samples in the malignant and benign patient classes are significantly different. Over-sampling techniques can be used to re-balance the datasets to construct more effective prediction models. Moreover, some related studies have considered feature selection to remove irrelevant features from the datasets for further performance improvement. However, since the order of combining feature selection and over-sampling can result in different training sets to construct the prediction model, it is unknown which order performs better. In this paper, the information gain (IG) and genetic algorithm (GA) feature selection methods and the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) are used for different combinations. The experimental results based on two breast cancer datasets show that the combination of feature selection and over-sampling outperform the single usage of either feature selection and over-sampling for the highly class imbalanced datasets. In particular, performing IG first and SMOTE second is the better choice. For other datasets with a small class imbalance ratio and a smaller number of features, performing SMOTE is enough to construct an effective prediction model.

Traffic safety has been thought of as a basic feature of transportation, recent developments in civil aviation have emphasized the need for risk identification and safety prediction. This study aims to increase en-route flight safety through the development of prediction models for flight conflicts. Firstly, flight conflicts time series and traffic parameters are extracted from historical ADS-B data. In the second step, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is trained to make a one-step-ahead prediction on the flight conflict time series. The results show that the LSTM model has the greatest prediction effect (MAE 0.3901) with comparison to other models. Based on that, we add traffic parameters (volume, density, velocity) into the LSTM model as new input variables and issue a comprehensive analysis of the relative predictive power of traffic parameters. The accuracy of prediction model is validated with a mean error of less than 3%. Based on the improvements of model performance brought by traffic parameters, LSTM models with a single traffic parameter are proposed for further discussion. The results illustrate that volume is the most important factor in promoting prediction accuracy and density has an advantage of improvement in the aspect of model stability.

The performance of bituminous materials is mainly affected by the prevailing maximum and minimum temperatures, and their mechanical properties can vary significantly with the magnitude of the temperature changes. The given effect can be observed from changes occurring in the bitumen or asphalt mixture stiffness and the materials’ serviceable life. Furthermore, when asphalt pavement layer are used, the temperature changes can be credited to climatic factors such as air temperature, solar radiation and wind. Thus in relevance to the discussed issue, the contents of this paper displays a comprehensive review of the collected existing 38 prediction models and broadly classifies them into their corresponding numerical, analytical and statistical models. These models further present different formulas based on the climate, environment, and methods of data collection and analyses. Corresponding to which, most models provide reasonable predictions for both minimum and maximum pavement temperatures. Some models can even predict the temperature of asphalt pavement layers on an hourly or daily basis using the provided statistical method. The analytical models can provide straight-forward solutions, but assumptions on boundary conditions should be simplified. Critical climatic and pavement factors influencing the accuracy of predicting temperature were examined. This paper recommends future studies involving coupled heat transfer model for the pavement and the environment, particularly consider to be made on the impact of surface water and temperature of pavements in urban areas.

Road networks are critical infrastructures within any region and it is imperative to maintain their conditions for safe and effective movement of goods and services. Road Management, therefore, plays a key role to ensure consistent efficient operation. However, significant resources are required to perform necessary maintenance activities to achieve and maintain high levels of service. Pavement maintenance can typically be very expensive and decisions are needed concerning planning and prioritizing interventions. Data are key towards enabling adequate maintenance planning but in many instances, there is limited available information especially in small or under-resourced urban road authorities. This study develops a roadmap to help these authorities by using flexible data analysis and deep learning computational systems to highlight important factors within road networks, which are used to construct models that can help predict future intervention timelines. A case study in Palermo, Italy was successfully developed to demonstrate how the techniques could be applied to perform appropriate feature selection and prediction models based on limited data sources. The workflow provides a pathway towards more effective pavement maintenance management practices using techniques that can be readily adapted based on different environments. This takes another step towards automating these practices within the pavement management system.

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of three-dimensional objects is now being progressively realised with its ad-hoc approach with minimal material wastage (lean manufacturing) being one of its benefit by default. It could also be considered as an evolutional paradigm in the manufacturing industry with its long list of application as of late. Artificial Intelligence is currently finding its usefulness in predictive modelling to provide intelligent, efficient, customisable, high-quality and sustainable-oriented production process. This paper presents a comprehensive survey on commonly used predictive models based on heuristic algorithms and discusses their applications toward making AM “smart”. This paper summarises AM’s current trend, future opportunity, gaps, and requirements together with recommendations for technology and research for inter-industry collaboration, educational training and technology transfer in the AI perspective in-line with the Industry 4.0 developmental process. Moreover, machine learning algorithms are presented for detecting product defects in the cyber-physical system of additive manufacturing. Based on reviews on various applications, printability with multi-indicators, reduction of design complexity threshold, acceleration of prefabrication, real-time control, enhancement of security and defect detection for customised designs are seen of as prospective opportunities for further research.

Construction site accidents can be reduced through proactive steps using prediction models developed based on factors that influence the safety climate. In this study, a prediction model of the safety climate observed by construction site personnel in Saudi Arabia was developed, identifying a set of significant safety climate predictors. The model was built with data collected from 401 active construction site personnel using a bootstrapped multiple ordinal logistic regression model. The model revealed five significant predictors: supervision, guidance, and inspection, social security and health insurance, management’s commitment to safety, management’s safety justice, and coworker influence. The model can correctly predict 67% of the safety evaluations. The identified predictors present proof of the importance of safety support, commitment, and interaction in construction sites and their influence on the perceived evaluations of the safety climate by personnel. Moreover, the prediction model can help construction industry decision makers, safety policy designers, government agencies, and stakeholders to estimate the safety climate and assess the current situation. Furthermore, the model can help form a better understanding and determine areas of improvement, which can translate into higher safety performance levels.

Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) can be used to create alerts for clinicians to identify patients at risk and to provide useful information for clinical decision-making support. In this study, we proposed a novel approach for predicting Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) based on comorbidities and associated indicators using EMRs. The medical histories of ALS patients were analyzed and compared with those of subjects without ALS, and the associated comorbidities were selected as features for constructing the machine learning and prediction model. We proposed a novel weighted Jaccard index (WJI) that incorporates four different machine learning techniques to construct prediction systems. Alternative prediction models were constructed based on two different levels of comorbidity: single disease codes and clustered disease codes. With an accuracy of 83.7%, sensitivity of 78.8%, specificity of 85.7%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.907 for the single disease code level, the proposed WJI outperformed the traditional Jaccard index (JI) and scoring methods. Incorporating the proposed WJI into EMRs enabled the construction of a prediction system for analyzing the risk of suffering a specific disease based on comorbidity combinatorial patterns, which could provide a fast, low-cost, and noninvasive evaluation approach for early diagnosis of a specific disease.

Air, an essential natural resource, has been compromised in terms of quality by economic activities. Considerable research has been devoted to predicting instances of poor air quality, but most studies are limited by insufficient longitudinal data, making it difficult to account for seasonal and other factors. Several prediction models have been developed using an 11-year dataset collected by Taiwan&rsquo, s Environmental Protection Administration (EPA). Machine learning methods, including adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest, stacking ensemble, and support vector machine (SVM), produce promising results for air quality index (AQI) level predictions. A series of experiments, using datasets for three different regions to obtain the best prediction performance from the stacking ensemble, AdaBoost, and random forest, found the stacking ensemble delivers consistently superior performance for R2 and RMSE, while AdaBoost provides best results for MAE.

Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, causing significant human and material losses every year. Big data, whose volumes are rapidly increasing, are expected to be used for preemptive responses. However, human cognitive abilities are limited, which can lead to ineffective decision making during disaster responses when artificial intelligence-based analysis models are not employed. Existing prediction models have limitations with regard to their validation, and most models focus only on heat-associated deaths. In this study, a random forest model was developed for the weekly prediction of heat-related damages on the basis of four years (2015&ndash, 2018) of statistical, meteorological, and floating population data from South Korea. The model was evaluated through comparisons with other traditional regression models in terms of mean absolute error, root mean squared error, root mean squared logarithmic error, and coefficient of determination (R2). In a comparative analysis with observed values, the proposed model showed an R2 value of 0.804. The results show that the proposed model outperforms existing models. They also show that the floating population variable collected from mobile global positioning systems contributes more to predictions than the aggregate population variable.

Recently, micro-perforated panels (MPP) have become a popular sound absorbing material in the field of architectural acoustics. However, the cost of MPP is still high for the commercial market in Taiwan, and MPP is still not very popular compared to other sound absorbing materials and devices. The objective of this study is to develop a prediction model for MEMM via a machine learning approach. An experiment including 14 types of MEMM was first carried out in a reverberation room based on ISO 354. To predict the sound absorption coefficient of the MEMM, the capability of three conventional models and three machine learning (ML) models of the supervised learning method were studied for the development of the prediction model. The results showed that in most conventional models, the sound absorption coefficient of using an equivalent perimeter had the best agreement compared with other parameters, and the root mean square error (RMSE) between prediction models and experimental data were around 0.2~0.3. However, the RMSE of all ML models was less than 0.1, and the RMSE of the gradient boost model was 0.033 in the training sets and 0.062 in the testing sets, which showed the best agreement with the experiment data.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a multifactorial disease that causes low quality of life, poor psychology and resignation from life. Furthermore, KOA is a big data problem in terms of data complexity, heterogeneity and size as it has been commonly considered in the literature with most of the reported studies being limited in the amount of information they can adequately process. The aim of this paper is: (i) To provide a robust feature selection (FS) approach that could identify important risk factors which contribute to the prediction of KOA and (ii) to develop machine learning (ML) prediction models for KOA. The current study considers multidisciplinary data from the osteoarthritis initiative (OAI) database, the available features of which come from heterogeneous sources such as questionnaire data, physical activity indexes, self-reported data about joint symptoms, disability and function as well as general health and physical exams&rsquo, data. The novelty of the proposed FS methodology lies on the combination of different well-known approaches including filter, wrapper and embedded techniques, whereas feature ranking is decided on the basis of a majority vote scheme to avoid bias. The validation of the selected factors was performed in data subgroups employing seven well-known classifiers in five different approaches. A 74.07% classification accuracy was achieved by SVM on the group of the first fifty-five selected risk factors. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was evaluated in a comparative analysis with respect to classification errors and confusion matrices to confirm its clinical relevance. The results are the basis for the development of reliable tools for the prediction of KOA progression.

Aggregate piers have been widely used to increase bearing pressure and reduce settlement under structural footings. The ultimate bearing capacity of aggregate pier-reinforced ground is affected by the soil strength, replacement ratio of piles, and construction conditions. Various prediction models have been proposed to predict the ultimate bearing capacity. However, existing models have shown a broad range of bias, variation, and error, and they are at times unsuitable for practical design. In this study, multiple regression analysis was performed using field loading test results to predict the ultimate bearing capacity of ground reinforced by aggregate piers, and the number and type of the most efficient input variables were evaluated to build a robust predictive model. Accordingly, a multiple regression equation for predicting the ultimate bearing capacity was proposed, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the effect of input variables. In addition, a deep neural network was applied to estimate the ultimate bearing capacity. The optimal structure was selected on the basis of cross-validation results to prevent overtraining. Prediction errors for two approaches were evaluated and then compared with those of existing models.

The main contents of this paper are to verify the environmental factors affecting the power generation of floating photovoltaic systems and to present the power generation prediction model considering environmental factors by using regression analysis and neural networks studied during the last decade. This study focused on a comparative analysis of which model is best suited for the power generation prediction of the floating photovoltaic (PV) system. To compare the power generation characteristics of a floating and a land-based PV system, two identical 2.5 kW PV systems were installed&mdash, one on the water surface in the Boryeong Dam, Korea, and the other nearby on dry land&mdash, and their performances were compared. The solar irradiance of the floating PV system was 1.1% lower than that of the land-based PV. Nevertheless, the floating PV module temperature was 4.9% lower than that of the land-based PV, generating approximately 3% more power. Using the correlation analysis of data mining techniques, environmental factors affecting the efficiency of the floating PV system were investigated. The correlation coefficient between the module temperature and water temperature was which proves that the high efficiency and low module temperature characteristics of the floating PV system, when compared with that of the land-based PV, are due to the water evaporation effect. Considering environmental factors, power-generation prediction models based on regression analysis and neural networks are presented, and their accuracies are compared. This comparison confirms that the accuracy of the power generation prediction model using neural networks was approximately 2.59% higher than that of the regression analysis method. As a result of adjusting the hidden nodes in the neural network algorithm, it was confirmed that a neural network algorithm with ten hidden nodes was most suitable for calculating the amount of power generation.

It is very difficult for us to accurately predict occurrence of a fire. But, this is very important to protect human life and property. So, we study fire hazard prediction and evaluation methods to cope with fire risks. In this paper, we propose three models based on statistical machine learning and optimized risk indexing for fire risk assessment. We build logistic regression, deep neural networks (DNN) and fire risk indexing models, and verify performances between proposed and traditional models using real investigated data related to fire occurrence in Korea. In general, fire prediction models currently in use do not provide satisfactory levels of accuracy. The reason for this result is that the factors affecting fire occurrence are very diverse and frequency of fire occurrence is very sparse. To improve accuracy of fire occurrence, we first build logistic regression and DNN models. In addition, we construct a fire risk indexing model for a more improved model of fire prediction. To illustrate comparison results between our research models and current fire prediction model, we use real fire data investigated in Korea between 2011 to 2017. From the experimental results of this paper, we can confirm that accuracy of prediction by the proposed method is superior to the existing fire occurrence prediction model. Therefore, we expect the proposed model to contribute to evaluating the possibility of fire risk in buildings and factories in the field of fire insurance and to calculate the fire insurance premium.

This study presents surface roughness modeling for machined parts based on cutting parameters (spindle speed, cutting depth, and feed rate) and machining vibration in the end milling process. Prediction models were developed using multiple regression analysis and an artificial neural network (ANN) modeling approach. To reduce the effect of chatter, machining tests were conducted under varying cutting parameters as defined in the stable regions of the milling tool. The surface roughness and machining vibration level are modeled with nonlinear quadratic forms based on the cutting parameters and their interactions through multiple regression analysis methods, respectively. Analysis of variance was employed to determine the significance of cutting parameters on surface roughness. The results show that the combined effects of spindle speed and cutting depth significantly influence surface roughness. The comparison between the prediction performance of the multiple regression and neural network-based models reveal that the ANN models achieve higher prediction accuracy for all training data with R = 0.96 and root mean square error (RMSE) = 3.0% compared with regression models with R = 0.82 and RMSE = 7.57%. Independent machining tests were conducted to validate the predictive models, the results conclude that the ANN model based on cutting parameters with machining vibration has a higher average prediction accuracy (93.14%) than those of models with three cutting parameters. Finally, the feasibility of the predictive model as the base to develop an online surface roughness recognition system has been successfully demonstrated based on contour surface milling test. This study reveals that the predictive models derived on the cutting conditions with consideration of machining stability can ensure the prediction accuracy for application in milling process.

This paper describes the development of an optimized corn yield prediction model under extreme weather conditions for the Midwestern United States (US). We tested six different artificial intelligence (AI) models using satellite images and meteorological data for the dominant growth period. To examine the effects of extreme weather events, we defined the drought and heatwave by considering the characteristics of corn growth and selected the cases for sensitivity tests from a historical database. In particular, we conducted an optimization for the hyperparameters of the deep neural network (DNN) model to ensure the best configuration for accuracy improvement. The result for drought cases showed that our DNN model was approximately 51%&ndash, 98% more accurate than the other five AI models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). For the heatwave cases, our DNN model showed approximately 30%&ndash, 77% better accuracy in terms of RMSE. The correlation coefficient was 0.954 for drought cases and 0.887&ndash, 0.914 for heatwave cases. Moreover, the accuracy of our DNN model was very stable, despite the increases in the duration of the heatwave. It indicates that the optimized DNN model can provide robust predictions for corn yield under conditions of extreme weather and can be extended to other prediction models for various crops in future work.

Recommender systems suggest items of interest to users based on their preferences. These preferences are typically generated from user ratings of the items. If there are no ratings for a certain user or item, it is said that there is a cold start problem, which leads to unreliable recommendations. Existing studies that reviewed and examined cold start in recommender systems have not explained the process of deriving and obtaining the auxiliary information needed for cold start recommendation. This study surveys the existing literature in order to explain the various approaches and techniques employed by researchers and the challenges associated with deriving and obtaining the auxiliary information necessary for cold start recommendation. Results show that auxiliary information for cold start recommendation is obtained by adapting traditional filtering and matrix factorization algorithms typically with machine learning algorithms to build learning prediction models. The understanding of similar or connected user profiles can be used as auxiliary information for building cold start user profile to enable similar recommendations in social networks. Similar users are clustered into sub-groups so that a cold start user could be allocated and inferred to a sub-group having similar profiles for recommendations. The key challenges of the process for obtaining the auxiliary information involve: (1) two separate recommendation processes of conversion from pure cold start to warm start before eliciting the auxiliary information; (2) the obtained implicit auxiliary information is usually ranked and sieved in order to select the top rated and reliable auxiliary information for the recommendation. This study also found that cold start user recommendation has frequently been researched in the entertainment domain, typically using music and movie data, while little research has been carried out in educational institutions and academia, or with cold start for mobile applications.

The purpose of this study is to improve the prediction of container volumes in Busan ports by applying external variables and time-series data decomposition methods to deep learning prediction models. Previous studies on container volume forecasting were based on traditional statistical methodologies, such as ARIMA, SARIMA, and regression. However, these methods do not explain the complexity and variability of data caused by changes in the external environment, such as the global financial crisis and economic fluctuations. Deep learning can explore the inherent patterns of data and analyze the characteristics (time series, external environmental variables, and outliers), hence, the accuracy of deep learning-based volume prediction models is better than that of traditional models. However, this does not include the study of overall trends (upward, steady, or downward). In this study, a novel deep learning prediction model is proposed that combines prediction and trend identification of container volume. The proposed model explores external variables that are related to container volume, combining port volume time-series decomposition with external variables and deep learning-based multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) prediction. The results indicate that the proposed model performs better than the traditional LSTM model and follows the trend simultaneously.

In Korea, because of the high interest in stock investment, many researchers have attempted to predict stock prices using deep learning. Studies to predict stock prices have been continuously conducted. However, the type of stock data that is suitable for deep learning has not been established, and it has not been confirmed that the developed stock prediction model can actually result in a profit. To date, designing a good deep learning model depends on how well the user can extract the features that represent all the characteristics of the training data. Among the various available features for training and test data, we determined that the use of event binary features can make stock price prediction models perform better. An event binary feature refers to a 0 or 1 value describing whether an indicator is satisfied (1) or not (0) for any given day and stock. We proposed and compared a stock price prediction model with three different feature combinations to verify the importance of binary features. As a result, we derived a prediction model that defeated the market (KOSPI and KODAQ (KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) and KOSDAQ (Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) is Korean stock indices)). The results suggest that deep learning is suitable for stock price prediction.

We present a comparative study between predictive monthly rainfall models for islands of complex orography using machine learning techniques. The models have been developed for the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands). Weather forecasting is influenced both by the local geographic characteristics as well as by the time horizon comprised. Accuracy of mid-term rainfall prediction on islands with complex orography is generally low when carried out with atmospheric models. Predictive models based on algorithms such as Random Forest or Extreme Gradient Boosting among others were analyzed. The predictors used in the models include weather predictors measured in two main meteorological stations, reanalysis predictors from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the global predictor North Atlantic Oscillation, all of them obtained over a period of time of more than four decades. When comparing the proposed models, we evaluated accuracy, kappa and interpretability of the model obtained, as well as the relevance of the predictors used. The results show that global predictors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) have a very low influence, while the local Geopotential Height (GPH) predictor is relatively more important. Machine learning prediction models are a relevant proposition for predicting medium-term precipitation in similar geographical regions.

Accurate PM2.5 concentration prediction is crucial for protecting public health and improving air quality. As a popular deep learning model, deep belief network (DBN) for PM2.5 concentration prediction has received increasing attention due to its effectiveness. However, the DBN structure parameters that have a significant impact on prediction accuracy and computation time are hard to be determined. To address this issue, a modified grey wolf optimization (MGWO) algorithm is proposed to optimize the DBN structure parameters containing number of hidden nodes, learning rate, and momentum coefficient. The methodology modifies the basic grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm using the nonlinear convergence and position update strategies, and then utilizes the training error of the DBN to calculate the fitness function of the MGWO algorithm. Through the multiple iterations, the optimal structure parameters are obtained, and a suitable predictor is finally generated. The proposed prediction model is validated on a real application case. Compared with the other prediction models, experimental results show that the proposed model has a simpler structure but higher prediction accuracy.

Landslides could cause huge damages to properties and severe loss of lives. Landslides can be detected by analyzing the environmental data collected by wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, environmental data are usually complex and undergo rapid changes. Thus, if landslides can be predicted, people can leave the hazardous areas earlier. A good prediction mechanism is, thus, critical. Currently, a widely-used method is Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which give accurate predictions and exhibit high learning ability. Through training, the ANN weight coefficients can be made precise enough such that the network works in analogy to a human brain. However, when there is an imbalanced distribution of data, an ANN will not be able to learn the pattern of the minority class, that is, the class having very few data samples. As a result, the predictions could be inaccurate. To overcome this shortcoming of ANNs, this work proposes a model switching strategy that can choose between different predictors, according to environmental states. In addition, ANN-based error models have also been designed to predict future errors from prediction models and to compensate for these errors in the prediction phase. As a result, our proposed method can improve prediction performance, and the landslide prediction system can give warnings, on average, 44.2 min prior to the occurrence of a landslide.

Physicochemical properties of chemicals as referred to in this review include, for example, thermodynamic properties such as heat of formation, boiling point, toxicity of molecules and the fate of molecules whenever undergoing or accelerating (catalytic) a chemical reaction and therewith about chemical equilibrium, that is, the equilibrium in chemical reactions. All such properties have been predicted in literature by a variety of methods. However, for the experimental scientist for whom such predictions are of relevance, the accuracies are often far from sufficient for reliable application We discuss current practices and suggest how one could arrive at better, that is sufficiently accurate and reliable, predictive methods. Some recently published examples have shown this to be possible in practical cases. In summary, this review focuses on methodologies to obtain the required accuracies for the chemical practitioner and process technologist designing chemical processes. Finally, something almost never explicitly mentioned is the fact that whereas for some practical cases very accurate predictions are required, for other cases a qualitatively correct picture with relatively low correlation coefficients can be sufficient as a valuable predictive tool. Requirements for acceptable predictive methods can therefore be significantly different depending on the actual application, which are illustrated using real-life examples, primarily with industrial relevance. Furthermore, for specific properties such as the octanol-water partition coefficient more close collaboration between research groups using different methods would greatly facilitate progress in the field of predictive modelling.

As one of the important parameters used in the analysis and design of subgrade, resilient modulus is directly related to the safety, economic and life time of subgrade structure. In this paper, the characteristics of resilient modulus of improved red clay at different additive content were studied through conducting laboratory repeated load tri-axial tests. The influence of stress state, moisture content, compactness, additive types, and content on resilient modulus were analyzed. In addition, the regression analysis of resilient modulus, was carried out referencing three existing prediction models. The results showed that the Andrei model can better fit the resilient modulus of red clay and have a higher determination coefficient. However, the Andrei model and other existing prediction models, reflect only the influence of stress state on resilient modulus, without considering the influence of moisture content, compactness and additive content. Therefore, based on the Andrei model, a comprehensive prediction model, which can reflect the influence of compactness, moisture content, additive content, and stress state on resilient modulus was introduced. Good agreement between the regression results and the measured ones demonstrated the integrative ability of the introduced model.

One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution, and lifetime in the form of goods. In &rdquo, real&rdquo, economies, a perfect model for the circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods&rsquo, circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to &rdquo, real life&rdquo, and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected characteristics of early adopters.

Reliable estimates of peak particle velocity (PPV) from blasting-induced vibrations at a construction site play a crucial role in minimizing damage to nearby structures and maximizing blasting efficiency. However, reliably estimating PPV can be challenging due to complex connections between PPV and influential factors such as ground conditions. While many efforts have been made to estimate PPV reliably, discrepancies remain between measured and predicted PPVs. Here, we analyzed various methods for assessing PPV with several key relevant factors and 1191 monitored field blasting records at 50 different open-pit sites across South Korea to minimize the discrepancies. Eight prediction models are used based on artificial neural network, conventional empirical formulas, and multivariable regression analyses. Seven influential factors were selected to develop the prediction models, including three newly included and four already formulated in empirical formulas. The three newly included factors were identified to have a significant influence on PPV, as well as the four existing factors, through a sensitivity analysis. The measured and predicted PPVs were compared to evaluate the performances of prediction models. The assessment of PPVs by an artificial neural network yielded the lowest errors, and site factors, K and m were proposed for preliminary open-pit blasting designs.

Background: Post-prostatectomy incontinence (PPI) is a major complication that can significantly decrease quality of life. Approximately 20% of patients experience consistent PPI as long as 1 year after radical prostatectomy (RP). This study develops a preoperative predictive model and compares its diagnostic performance with conventional tools. Methods: A total of 166 prostate cancer patients who underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and RP were evaluated. According to the date of the RP, patients were divided into a development cohort (n = 109) and a test cohort (n = 57). Patients were classified as PPI early-recovery or consistent on the basis of pad usage for incontinence at 3 months after RP. Uni- and multi-variable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify associates of PPI early recovery. Four well-known machine learning algorithms (k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, support-vector machine (SVM), and random forest) and a logistic regression model were used to build prediction models for recovery from PPI using preoperative clinical and imaging data. The performances of the prediction models were assessed internally and externally using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and area-under-the-curve values and estimated probabilities and the actual proportion of cases of recovery from PPI within 3 months were compared using a chi-squared test. Results: Clinical and imaging findings revealed that age (70.1 years old for the PPI early-recovery group vs. 72.8 years old for the PPI consistent group), membranous urethral length (MUL, 15.7 mm for the PPI early-recovery group vs. 13.9 mm for the PPI consistent group), and obturator internal muscle (18.2 mm for the PPI early-recovery group vs. 17.5 mm for the PPI consistent group) were significantly different between the PPI early-recovery and consistent groups (all p-values &lt, 0.05). Multivariate analysis confirmed that age (odds ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval = 1.02–1.14, p-value = 0.007) and MUL (odds ratio = 0.87, 95% confidence interval = 0.80–0.95, p-value = 0.002) were significant independent factors for early recovery. The prediction model using machine learning algorithms showed superior diagnostic performance compared with conventional logistic regression (AUC = 0.59 ± 0.07), especially SVM (AUC = 0.65 ± 0.07). Moreover, all models showed good calibration between the estimated probability and actual observed proportion of cases of recovery from PPI within 3 months. Conclusions: Preoperative clinical data and anatomic features on preoperative MRI can be used to predict early recovery from PPI after RP, and machine learning algorithms provide greater diagnostic accuracy compared with conventional statistical approaches.

The introduction of Industry 4.0 is expected to revolutionize current maintenance practices by reaching new levels of predictive (detection, diagnosis, and prognosis processes) and prescriptive maintenance analytics. In general, the new maintenance paradigms (predictive and prescriptive) are often difficult to justify because of their multiple inherent trade-offs and hidden systems causalities. The prediction models, in the literature, can be considered as a “black box” that is missing the links between input data, analysis, and final predictions, which makes the industrial adaptability to such models almost impossible. It is also missing enable modeling deterioration based on loading, or considering technical specifications related to detection, diagnosis, and prognosis, which are all decisive for intelligent maintenance purposes. The purpose and scientific contribution of this paper is to present a novel simulation model that enables estimating the lifetime benefits of an industrial asset when an intelligent maintenance management system is utilized as mixed maintenance strategies and the predictive maintenance (PdM) is leveraged into opportunistic intervals. The multi-method simulation modeling approach combining agent-based modeling with system dynamics is applied with a purposefully selected case study to conceptualize and validate the simulation model. Three maintenance strategies (preventive, corrective, and intelligent) and five different scenarios (case study data, manipulated case study data, offshore and onshore reliability data handbook (OREDA) database, physics-based data, and hybrid) are modeled and simulated for a time period of 20 years (175,200 h). Intelligent maintenance is defined as PdM leveraged in opportunistic maintenance intervals. The results clearly demonstrate the possible lifetime benefits of implementing an intelligent maintenance system into the case study as it enhanced the operational availability by 0.268% and reduced corrective maintenance workload by 459 h or 11%. The multi-method simulation model leverages and shows the effect of the physics-based data (deterioration curves), loading profiles, and detection and prediction levels. It is concluded that implementing intelligent maintenance without an effective predictive horizon of the associated PdM and effective frequency of opportunistic maintenance intervals, does not guarantee the gain of its lifetime benefits. Moreover, the case study maintenance data shall be collected in a complete (no missing data) and more accurate manner (use hours instead of date only) and used to continuously upgrade the failure rates and maintenance times.

This contribution exposes the relative uncertainties associated with prediction patterns of landslide susceptibility. The patterns are based on relationships between direct and indirect spatial evidence of landslide occurrences. In a spatial database constructed for the modeling, direct evidence is the presence of landslide trigger areas, while indirect evidence is the presence of corresponding multivariate context in the form of digital maps. Five mathematical modeling functions are applied to capture and integrate evidence, indirect and direct, for separating landslide-presence areas from the areas of landslide assumed absence. Empirical likelihood ratios are used first to represent the spatial relationships. These are then combined by the models into prediction scores, ordered, equal-area ranked, displayed, and synthesized as prediction-rate curves. A critical task is assessing how uncertainty levels vary across the different prediction patterns, i.e., the modeling results visualized as fixed, colored groups of ranks. This is obtained by a strategy of iterative cross validation that uses only part of the direct evidence to model the pattern and the rest to validate it as a predictor. The conducted experiments in a mountainous area in northern Italy point at a research challenge that can now be confronted with relative rank-based statistics and iterative cross-validation processes. The uncertainty properties of prediction patterns are mostly unknown nevertheless they are critical for interpreting and justifying prediction results.

Several models for estimating the lifetimes of lead-acid and Li-ion (LiFePO4) batteries are analyzed and applied to a photovoltaic (PV)-battery standalone system. This kind of system usually includes a battery bank sized for 2.5 autonomy days or more. The results obtained by each model in different locations with very different average temperatures are compared. Two different locations have been considered: the Pyrenees mountains in Spain and Tindouf in Argelia. Classical battery aging models (equivalent full cycles model and rainflow cycle count model) generally used by researchers and software tools are not adequate as they overestimate the battery life in all cases. For OPzS lead-acid batteries, an advanced weighted Ah-throughput model is necessary to correctly estimate its lifetime, obtaining a battery life of roughly 12 years for the Pyrenees and around 5 years for the case Tindouf. For Li-ion batteries, both the cycle and calendar aging must be considered, obtaining more than 20 years of battery life estimation for the Pyrenees and 13 years for Tindouf. In the cases studied, the lifetime of LiFePO4 batteries is around two times the OPzS lifetime. As nowadays the cost of LiFePO4 batteries is around two times the OPzS ones, Li-ion batteries can be competitive with OPzS batteries in PV-battery standalone systems.

Rain attenuation becomes significant to degrade the earth-space or terrestrial radio link’s signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). So, to maintain the desired SNR level, with the help of fade mitigation techniques (FMTs), it needs to control transmitted signals power considering the expected rainfall. However, since the rain event is a random phenomenon, the rain attenuation that may be experienced by a specific link is difficult to estimate. Many empirical, physical, and compound nature-based models exist in the literature to predict the expected rain attenuation. Furthermore, many optimizations and decision-making functions have become simpler since the development of the learning-assisted (LA) technique. In this work, the LA rain attenuation (LARA) model was classified based on input parameters. Besides, for comparative analysis, each of the supported frequency components of LARA models were tabulated, and an accurate contribution of each model was identified. In contrast to all the currently available LARA models, the accuracy and correlation of input-output parameters are presented. Additionally, it summarizes and discusses open research issues and challenges.

Prediction models of coronavirus disease utilizing machine learning algorithms range from forecasting future suspect cases, predicting mortality rates, to building a pattern for country-specific pandemic end date. To predict the future suspect infection and death cases, we categorized the approaches found in the literature into: first, a purely data-driven approach, whose goal is to build a mathematical model that relates the data variables including outputs with inputs to detect general patterns. The discovered patterns can then be used to predict the future infected cases without any expert input. The second approach is partially data-driven, it uses historical data, but allows expert input such as the SIR epidemic algorithm. This approach assumes that the epidemic will end according to medical reasoning. In this paper, we compare the purely data-driven and partially-data driven approaches by applying them to data from three countries having different past pattern behavior. The countries are the US, Jordan, and Italy. It is found that those two prediction approaches yield significantly different results. Purely data-driven approach depends totally on the past behavior and does not show any decline in the number of the infected cases if the country did not experience any decline in the number of cases. On the other hand, a partially data-driven approach guarantees a timely decline of the infected curve to reach zero. Using the two approaches highlights the importance of human intervention in pandemic prediction to guide the learning process as opposed to the purely data-driven approach that predicts future cases based on the pattern detected in the data.

The state of Kuwait is facing a substantial challenge in responding to the spread of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). The government&rsquo, s decision to repatriate stranded citizens back to Kuwait from various COVID-19 epicenters has generated a great concern. It has heightened the need for prediction models to estimate the epidemic size. Mathematical modeling plays a pivotal role in predicting the spread of infectious diseases to enable policymakers to implement various health and safety measures to contain the spread. This research presents a forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic size in Kuwait based on the confirmed data. Deterministic and stochastic modeling approaches were used to estimate the size of COVID-19 spread in Kuwait and determine its ending phase. In addition, various simulation scenarios were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical intervention measures, particularly with time-varying infection rates and individual contact numbers. Results indicate that, with data until 19 April 2020 and before the repatriation plan, the estimated reproduction number in Kuwait is 2.2. It also confirms the efficiency of the containment measures of the state of Kuwait to control the spread even after the repatriation plan. The results show that a high contact rate among the population implies that the epidemic peak value is yet to be reached and that more strict intervention measures must be incorporated

In order to accurately predict the erosion effect of underwater cleaning with an angle nozzle under different working conditions, this paper uses refractory bricks to simulate marine fouling as the erosion target, and studies the optimized erosion prediction model by erosion test based on the submerged low-pressure water jet. The erosion test is conducted by orthogonal experimental design, and experimental data are used for the prediction model. By combining with statistical range and variance analysis methods, the jet pressure, impact time and jet angle are determined as three inputs of the prediction model, and erosion depth is the output index of the prediction model. A virtual data generation method is used to increase the amount of input data for the prediction model. This paper also proposes a Mind-evolved Advanced Genetic Algorithm (MAGA), which has a reliable optimization effect in the verification of four stand test functions. Then, the improved back-propagating (BP) neural network prediction models are established by respectively using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and MAGA optimization algorithms to optimize the initial thresholds and weights of the BP neural network. Compared to the prediction results of the BP and GA-BP models, the R2 of the MAGA-BP model is the highest, reaching 0.9954, the total error is reduced by 47.31% and 35.01%, the root mean square error decreases by 51.05% and 31.80%, and the maximum absolute percentage error decreases by 65.79% and 64.01%, respectively. The average prediction accuracy of the MAGA-BP model is controlled within 3%, which has been significantly improved. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the MAGA-BP prediction model is higher and more reliable, and the MAGA algorithm has a good optimization effect. This optimized erosion prediction method is feasible.

It is particularly desirable to predict castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients, and this study aims to predict patients&rsquo, likely outcomes to support physicians&rsquo, decision-making. Serial data is collected from 1592 PCa patients, and a phased long short-term memory (phased-LSTM) model with a special module called a &ldquo, time-gate&rdquo, is used to process the irregularly sampled data sets. A synthetic minority oversampling technique is used to overcome the data imbalance between two patient groups: those with and without CRPC treatment. The phased-LSTM model is able to predict the CRPC outcome with an accuracy of 88.6% (precision-recall: 91.6%) using 120 days of data or 94.8% (precision-recall: 96.9%) using 360 days of data. The validation loss converged slowly with 120 days of data and quickly with 360 days of data. In both cases, the prediction model takes four epochs to build. The overall CPRC outcome prediction model using irregularly sampled serial medical data is accurate and can be used to support physicians&rsquo, decision-making, which saves time compared to cumbersome serial data reviews. This study can be extended to realize clinically meaningful prediction models.

The accidents caused by roof pressure seriously restrict the improvement of mines and threaten production safety. At present, most coal mine pressure forecasting methods still rely on expert experience and engineering analogies. Artificial neural network prediction technology has been widely used in coal mines. This new approach can predict the surface pressure on the roof, which is of great significance in coal mine production safety. In this paper, the mining pressure mechanism of coal seam roofs is summarized and studied, and 60 sets of initial pressure data from multiple working surfaces in the Datong mining area are collected for gray correlation analysis. Finally, 12 parameters are selected as the input parameters of the model. Suitable back propagation (BP) and GA(genetic algorithm)-BP initial roof pressure prediction models are established for the Datong mining area and trained with MATLAB programming. By comparing the training results, we found that the optimized GA-BP model has a larger determination coefficient, smaller error, and greater stability. The research shows that the prediction method based on the GA-BP neural network model is relatively reliable and has broad engineering application prospects as an auxiliary decision-making tool for coal mine production safety.

Prognostics, such as remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, is a crucial task in condition-based maintenance. A major challenge in data-driven prognostics is the difficulty of obtaining a sufficient number of samples of failure progression. However, for traditional machine learning methods and deep neural networks, enough training data is a prerequisite to train good prediction models. In this work, we proposed a transfer learning algorithm based on Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) recurrent neural networks for RUL estimation, in which the models can be first trained on different but related datasets and then fine-tuned by the target dataset. Extensive experimental results show that transfer learning can in general improve the prediction models on the dataset with a small number of samples. There is one exception that when transferring from multi-type operating conditions to single operating conditions, transfer learning led to a worse result.

This article demonstrates the use of data mining methods for evidence-based smart decision support in quality control. The data were collected in a measurement campaign which provided a new and potential quality measurement approach for manufacturing process planning and control. In this study, the machine learning prediction models and Explainable AI methods (XAI) serve as a base for the decision support system for smart manufacturing. The discovered information about the root causes behind the predicted failure can be used to improve the quality, and it also enables the definition of suitable security boundaries for better settings of the production parameters. The user’s need defines the given type of information. The developed method is applied to the monitoring of the surface roughness of the stainless steel strip, but the framework is not application dependent. The modeling analysis reveals that the parameters of the annealing and pickling line (RAP) have the best potential for real-time roughness improvement.