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Expressing the sublethal effects of contaminants measured on individual fish as cohort and population responses would greatly help in their interpretation. Our approach combines laboratory studies with coupled statistical and individual-based models to simulate the effects of methylmercury (MeHg) on Atlantic croaker larval survival and growth. We used results of video-taped laboratory experiments on the effects of MeHg on larval behavioral responses to artificial predatory stimuli. Laboratory results were analyzed with a regression tree to obtain the probability of control and MeHg-exposed larvae escaping a real predatory fish attack. Measured changes in swimming speeds and regression tree-predicted escape abilities induced by MeHg exposure were then inputted into an individual-based larval fish cohort model. The individual-based model predicted larval-stage growth and survival under baseline (control) conditions, and low- and high-dose MeHg exposure under two alternative predator composition scenarios (medusa-dominated and predatory fish-dominated). Under MeHg exposure, stage survival was 7-19% of baseline (control) survival, and the roughly 33-day stage duration was extended by about 1-4 days. MeHg effects on larval growth dominated the response under the medusa-dominated predator composition, while predation played a more important role under the fish-dominated predator composition. Simulation results suggest that MeHg exposures near extreme maximum values observed in field studies can have a significant impact on larval cohort dynamics, and that the characteristics of the predator-prey interactions can greatly influence the underlying causes of the predicted responses.

Methylmercury (MeHg), the organic form of mercury, bioaccumulates easily through the food chain. Fish in high trophic levels can accumulate substantial levels of MeHg and transfer it to their developing eggs. Here, the effects of maternally derived MeHg on the planktonic larval stage of Atlantic croaker were investigated. Adult Atlantic croaker were fed MeHg-contaminated food at three levels: 0, 0.05, and 0.1 mg kg −1 day −1 for 1 month. Fish were then induced to spawn and MeHg levels in the eggs were measured (0.04–4.6 ng g −1 ). Behavioral performance of exposed and control larvae was measured at four developmental stages: end of yolk absorption (yolk), end of oil absorption (oil), and 4 and 11 days after oil absorption (oil + 4 and oil + 11). Behaviors analyzed included survival skills related to foraging and predator evasion: routine behavior (rate of travel, active swimming speed, net-to-gross displacement ratio, and activity) and startle response to a visual and a vibratory stimulus (responsiveness, reactive distance, response distance, response duration, average response speed, and maximum response speed). Maternally transferred MeHg induced concentration-dependent effects on survival skills. Statistical and simulation models applied to predict the ecological consequences of the behavioral effects suggested that maternal transfer of MeHg may substantially lower survival of planktonic stage larvae compared to unexposed larvae. These results also imply that larvae of top predatory fish species, such as blue marlin, may suffer mortality through maternal transfer of MeHg.