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Snow is an indicator of climate change. Its variation can affect surface energy, water balance, and atmospheric circulation, providing important feedback on climate change. There is a lack of assessment of the spatial characteristics of multi-source snow data in Eurasia, and these data exhibit high spatial variability and other differences. Therefore, using data obtained from the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCND) from 1980 to 2018, snow depth information from ERA5, MERRA2, and GlobSnow is assessed in this study. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics and the primary spatial modes of seasonal variations in snow depth are analyzed. The results show that the snow depth, according to GlobSnow data, is closer to that of the measured site data, while the ERA5_Land and MERRA2 data are overestimated. The annual variations in snow depth are consistent with seasonal variations in winter and spring, with an increasing trend in the mountains of Central Asia and Siberia and a decreasing trend in most of the rest of Eurasia. The dominant patterns of snow depth in late autumn, winter, and spring are all north–south dipole patterns, and there is overall consistency in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to deepen the understanding of the occurrence mechanism and water vapor transport characteristics of the heavy rain process in the extreme arid region of Xinjiang, a rare heavy rain process in the Tarim Basin during the period of 18–22 July 2021 was comprehensively analyzed by using multi-source data. The results show that the upper tropospheric South Asian high was distributed in a "west-high-east-low" pattern during the rainstorm process, and the rainstorm area was located on the right side of the upper jet stream entrance area, while the middle-level Iranian high pressure, Baikal high pressure and Central Asian low pressure formed a "two-highs and one-low" circulation situation. The coupling of the high and low air jets and the strong vertical upward motion provided favorable dynamic conditions. Rainstorm water vapor mainly comes from the Mediterranean Sea, Central Asia and the Indian Ocean, and it enters the basin in four paths: west, east to west, west to east, and southwest and south. The water vapor mainly flows into the middle layer of the western boundary and the southern boundary and the lower layer of the eastern boundary, and it flows out from the middle and upper layer of the eastern boundary. The negative moist potential vorticity region at a low level has a strong indicator significance for the occurrence and development of heavy rain, and the superposition of positive and negative moist potential vorticity regions at vertical height is conducive to the occurrence and development of heavy rain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid- and semi-arid Central Asia is particularly sensitive to climate change. The changes in extreme precipitation in Central Asia stemming from climate warming are the subject of intense debate within the scientific community. This study employed a Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the annual occurrence number of extreme precipitation in Central Asia from May to September during the period of 1951–2005. Their modulating planetary-scale climate modes were identified by using linear regression analysis. Two major scales of the temporal variability were derived: 2–3.9 years and 4–6 years. The dominant variability was a 2–3.9-year scale and was associated with the negative phase of the Polar/Eurasia (POL) pattern. The 4–6-year scale provided a secondary contribution and was closely linked to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These planetary climate modes acted as precursors of extreme precipitation over Central Asia. The negative phase of POL directly contributed to a negative height anomaly over Central Asia, which was intimately related to extreme precipitation. In contrast, the negative NAO phase possibly manifested as a Rossby wave source, which was subsequently exported to Central Asia through a negative–positive–negative Rossby wave train. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid social development has led to serious air pollution problems in cities, and air pollutants, including gaseous pollutants and particulate matter, have an important impact on climate, the environment, and human health. This study analyzed the characteristics, potential sources, and causes of air pollution in the Wu-Chang-Shi urban cluster. The results showed that NO2, CO, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 had a tendency to decrease, while O3 showed an increasing trend. The concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO, PM2.5, and PM10 showed the highest values in winter and the lowest values in summer, with similar seasonal variations. However, the concentration of O3 was highest in the summer and lowest in the winter. Compared with the pollutant concentrations in other Chinese cities, PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 are more polluted in the Wu-Chang-Shi urban. Meteorological factors have a greater impact on pollutant concentrations, with higher concentrations of major pollutants observed when wind speeds are low and specific wind directions are observed, and higher secondary pollutant O3 concentrations observed when wind speeds are low and specific wind directions are observed. The backward trajectory and concentration weighting analysis show that the particulate pollutants in the Wu-Chang-Shi urban in winter mainly come from Central Asia and surrounding cities. O3 showed an increasing trend before and after the novel coronavirus outbreak, which may be related to changes in NOX, volatile organic compounds, and solar radiation intensity, and the concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO, PM10, and PM2.5 showed an overall decreasing trend after the outbreak and was smaller than before the outbreak, which is related to the reduction of industrial and anthropogenic source emissions during the outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to investigate and understand the changes in thermal contrast in the upper troposphere over Central Asia before and after 1999. It was observed that there was a discernible increase/decrease in upper tropospheric temperature (TT) in the 100 hPa/250 hPa over the Central Asian region during PRE99, whereas during POST99, it was found to be the other way around. A clear increase and decrease in the upper TT pattern in 100 hPa and 250 hPa can be attributed to anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulations in the wind shear, respectively. The subtropical jet has been shown to act as a significant dynamical system generating cyclonic circulation over Central Asia, resulting in dynamical features favorable for enhancing convection during PRE99. This is evinced by the structure of the 200 hPa zonal winds, which serve as a surrogate for a subtropical jet. It can be seen that the westerly winds over the southern part and the easterly winds over the northern part of Central Asia culminate in a significant cyclonic circulation over the region. In summary, PRE99 showed an increase in convection over Central Asia and the regions to its west. The anatomy, using geopotential height, relative humidity, total cloud area (TCA) fraction, longwave fluxes (LWF), and shortwave fluxes (SWF) through the top of the atmosphere, is consistent with the above results. To further support these findings, an updated and thorough causality analysis is performed, and it is noteworthy to mention that the variation of thermal temperature contrast is found to be causally related to LWF and SWF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The loess in the arid area of Xinjiang is located at the eastern end of the Central Asia Loess Belt, and paleoclimate research about it is of great importance for understanding the mechanism of interaction of the Eurasian Westerly monsoon system and the aridity of Central Asia. This review focuses on recent progress concerning the spatial distribution, material composition and provenance of loess in Xinjiang and points out the shortcomings of and challenges to provenance and dust circulation. Field investigation and previous studies indicate that loess sediments have been mainly distributed on the river terraces and windward piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains since the late Pliocene (mainly late Pleistocene). Grain size and age data show that Xinjiang loess deposits at some locations are rapid and discontinuous or sedimentary hiatus. The Siberian High system largely controlled dust mobilization and loess accumulation in northern Xinjiang but not southern Xinjiang. In southern Central Asia, the intensity of dust activity may be determined by the Caspian Sea–Hindu Kush Index (CasHKI) and local circulation. However, there is not enough evidence that the CasHKI index can affect the Tarim Basin area. Consequently, ascertaining the driving mechanism of mid-latitude Westerly winds and the dynamic process of loess deposition in Xinjiang is a specific suggestion for critical future research. Many indicators have shown that the loess dust sources in Xinjiang are composed of mainly proximal materials plus some remote materials. Alluvial plains and local proluvial fans contributed more to loess deposition, while Central Asian deserts comprise a small proportion of loess deposition in northern Xinjiang. In future provenance research, new technologies and new methods should be continuously tested to facilitate an objective understanding of the provenance of the loess in Xinjiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a meteorological phenomenon that threatens ecosystems, agricultural production, and living conditions. Central Asia is highly vulnerable to drought due to its special geographic location, water resource shortages, and extreme weather conditions, and poor management of water resources and reliance on irrigated agriculture exacerbate the effects of drought. In this study, the latest version of the Global Land Data Assimilation System was employed to calculate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at different time scales during the period from 1981 to 2020. The varimax Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function was applied for subregional delineation of drought patterns in Central Asia, and various methods were employed for a comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in these Central Asian subregions. The results show that drought patterns vary considerably in the Central Asian subregions. Over the past 40 years, alternating wet and dry conditions occurred in Central Asia. North Kazakhstan experienced more drought events with lower severity. East and west differences appear after 2001, the west becoming drier and the east becoming wetter. Some regions near lakes, such as Balkhash, Issyk-Kul, and the Aral Sea, suffer from droughts of long duration and high severity. In the Tianshan region, droughts in the northern slopes occur more frequently, with shorter durations and higher intensity and peaks. Northwestern China and western Mongolia have extensive agricultural land and grasslands with highly fragile ecosystems that have become progressively drier since 2001. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thanks to the large scope, high spatial resolution, and increasing data records, satellite-based precipitation products are playing an increasingly important role in drought monitoring. First, based on the data from ground sites, the long-term Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) precipitation product was evaluated in respect to drought monitoring. Then, based on the MSWEP product, the drought trends and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the drought events in four major basins (Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin, Chu-Talas River Basin, and Ili River Basin) in Central Asia, which have relatively dense gauge sites, were studied. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the run theory were used to identify drought events and describe their characteristics. The results showed that MSWEP can effectively capture drought events and their basic characteristics. In the past 40 years, the study area experienced 27 drought events, among which the severest one (DS = 15.66) occurred from June 2007 to September 2008. The drought event that occurred from June 1984 to October 1984 had a drought peak value of 3.39, with the largest drought area (99.2%). Since 1881, there appeared a drying trend and a wetting trend in the Amu Darya River basin and the Ili River basin, respectively. No obvious wetting or drying trend was found in both the Chu-Talas River basin and the Syr Darya basin. Since 2016, the drought area has been on the increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The land surface scheme (LSS) plays a very important role in the forecast of surface meteorological elements in the Central Asia arid region. Therefore, two LSSs viz. Noah and Noah-MP were evaluated over the Central Asia arid region in January and July 2017 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a 3-km horizontal grid resolution. The objective was to assess the performance of WRF LSSs by calculated the mean error (ME) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) of simulated hourly meteorological elements, such as 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind speed, soil temperature, soil moisture at 5 and 25 cm thickness, and surface soil heat flux at 5 cm thickness. The results showed that, compared to Noah, Noah-MP modeled less surface sensible heat flux in the northern Xinjiang (15~20 W∙m−2) and surface latent heat flux in most areas of Xinjiang (<10 W∙m−2) in January, and mainly generated less sensible heat flux in most areas of north Xinjiang and the mountainous regions of southern Xinjiang (≤20 W·m−2) which on the contrary, generated more surface latent heat flux in most parts of Xinjiang (15~20 W·m−2) in July. Meanwhile, the surface soil heat flux generated from Noah-MP was closer to the observations at Hongliuhe and Kelameili stations in January, the ME increased by 17.5% and reduced by 80.7%, respectively, the RMSE decreased by 44.4% and 61.7%, respectively, and closer to the observations at Xiaotang station in July, the ME and RMSE reduced by 19.1% and 20.5%, respectively. Compared to Noah, Noah-MP improved the overall simulation of soil temperature and soil moisture over the northern and eastern Xinjiang (at 10 cm thickness), the ME and RMSE of simulated soil temperature reduced by 85.0% and 13.4% in January, decreased by 78.6% and increased by 6.2% in July, respectively, and the ME and RMSE of simulated soil moisture reduced by 67.2% and 14.9% in January, reduced by 33.3% and 2.8% in July, respectively. Compared to Noah, Noah-MP's results were lowered for the simulated 10-m wind speed and 2-m air temperature, especially the simulated 2-m air temperature over the cold climate regions of northern Xinjiang, was improved significantly, the ME and RMSE of simulated 10-m wind speed reduced by 0.8% and 4.9% in January, decreased by 6.7% and 2.8% in July, respectively, the ME and RMSE of simulated 2-m air temperature reduced by 2.8% and 1.0% in July, respectively. This study demonstrated the advantage of coupled Noah-MP over the Central Asia arid region, providing the basis for WRF/Noah-MP in future operational applications in the Central Asia arid region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference 1 Gulakhmadov A., Chen X., Gulakhmadov M., Kobuliev Z., Gulahmadov N., Peng J., Li Z., Liu T. Evaluation of the CRU TS3.1, APHRODITE V1101, and CFSR Datasets in Assessing Water Balance Components in the Upper Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia. Evaluation of the CRU TS3.1, APHRODITE V1101, and CFSR Datasets in Assessing Water Balance Components in the Upper Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia. Figure Graph: Figure 1 The digital elevation model of the Upper Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia with the locations of the observed weather and hydro-gauging stations, Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset (CFSR), as well as the global weather data points and streamflow. [Extracted from the article]

Drought has become an important threat to industrial and agricultural production and human activities in Central Asia. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of dry and wet changes in Central Asia from 1930-;2014. The Mann-Kendall trend test and empirical orthogonal function analysis were used to analyze the characteristics of drought in the interannual and seasonal scales. The results showed that the interannual SPEI index in Central Asia presented a distinct phased feature, in the late 1930s, 1970s and 1990s, three consecutive periods of drought occurred. Seasonal SPEI presented different characteristics, with no obvious drying trends in spring and summer. Autumn and winter showed a wet trend. While an obviously wetting tendency has been detected for the winter season, it started in the mid-1950s. Spatially, drought frequency is 42.87% over the entire region of Central Asia from 1930 to 2014. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are wet relative to other countries in Central Asia, with the frequency of drought occurring at 41.6% and 41.9%, respectively; lower than the average frequency of drought in Central Asia. The average frequency of drought in Kazakhstan is 43.1%. Droughts frequently occur in the central and southern parts of Kazakhstan, with the frequency of drought reaching 46.76%. Droughts hardly occur in eastern of Kazakhstan, as well as in the northeastern region. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are the two driest countries in Central Asia, especially in the desert region. The frequency of drought was 50.68% and 47.64% respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes in drought characteristics in Central Asia are projected at the regional scale using 21 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), drought characteristics were characterized by drought frequency at 1-, 3-, and 12-month timescales. The drought duration was analyzed based on SPI1 and SPEI1. Drought indices were calculated by the multimodel ensemble (MME) from 21 CMIP5 models. The varimax rotation method was used to identify drought conditions for the entire area and seven drought subregions. In general, the projection results of future drought in Central Asia are related to the choice of drought index, and SPI and SPEI show different results. The drought frequency based on SPEI1, SPEI3, and SPEI12 showed an increasing trend in the future periods, that is, the drought frequency based on monthly, seasonal, and annual timescales will show an increase trend in the future periods. However, for SPI1, SPI3, and SPI12, the drought frequency will decrease in the future. SPI projected that the duration of drought will decrease in the future, while SPEI mainly showed an increasing trend. The results of the study should be of sufficient concern to policymakers to avoid land degradation, crop loss, water resource deficit, and economic loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the applicability of three gridded datasets was evaluated (Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time Series (TS) 3.1, "Asian Precipitation—Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward the Evaluation of Water Resources" (APHRODITE)_V1101, and the climate forecast system reanalysis dataset (CFSR)) in different combinations against observational data for predicting the hydrology of the Upper Vakhsh River Basin (UVRB) in Central Asia. Water balance components were computed, the results calibrated with the SUFI-2 approach using the calibration of soil and water assessment tool models (SWAT–CUP) program, and the performance of the model was evaluated. Streamflow simulation using the SWAT model in the UVRB was more sensitive to five parameters (ALPHA_BF, SOL_BD, CN2, CH_K2, and RCHRG_DP). The simulation for calibration, validation, and overall scales showed an acceptable correlation between the observed and simulated monthly streamflow for all combination datasets. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) showed "excellent" and "good" values for all datasets. Based on the R2 and NSE from the "excellent" down to "good" datasets, the values were 0.91 and 0.92 using the observational datasets, CRU TS3.1 (0.90 and 0.90), APHRODITE_V1101+CRU TS3.1 (0.74 and 0.76), APHRODITE_V1101+CFSR (0.72 and 0.78), and CFSR (0.67 and 0.74) for the overall scale (1982–2006). The mean annual evapotranspiration values from the UVRB were about 9.93% (APHRODITE_V1101+CFSR), 25.52% (APHRODITE_V1101+CRU TS3.1), 2.9% (CFSR), 21.08% (CRU TS3.1), and 27.28% (observational datasets) of annual precipitation (186.3 mm, 315.7 mm, 72.1 mm, 256.4 mm, and 299.7 mm, out of 1875.9 mm, 1236.9 mm, 2479 mm, 1215.9 mm, and 1098.5 mm). The contributions of the snowmelt to annual runoff were about 81.06% (APHRODITE_V1101+CFSR), 63.12% (APHRODITE_V1101+CRU TS3.1), 82.79% (CFSR), 81.66% (CRU TS3.1), and 67.67% (observational datasets), and the contributions of rain to the annual flow were about 18.94%, 36.88%, 17.21%, 18.34%, and 32.33%, respectively, for the overall scale. We found that gridded climate datasets can be used as an alternative source for hydrological modeling in the Upper Vakhsh River Basin in Central Asia, especially in scarce-observation regions. Water balance components, simulated by the SWAT model, provided a baseline understanding of the hydrological processes through which water management issues can be dealt with in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using historical data compiled by the Climate Research Unit, spatial and temporal analysis, trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and Taylor diagram analysis were applied to test the ability of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to accurately simulate the annual mean surface air temperature in central Asia from the perspective of the average climate state and climate variability. Results show that each model can reasonably capture the spatial distribution characteristics of the surface air temperature in central Asia but cannot accurately describe the regional details of climate change impacts. Some of the studied models, including CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-H, could better simulate the high- and low-value centers and the contour distribution of the surface air temperature. Taylor diagram analysis showed that the root mean square errors of all models were less than 3, the standard deviations were between 8.36 and 13.45, and the spatial correlation coefficients were greater than 0.96. EOF analysis showed that the multi-model ensemble can accurately reproduce the surface air temperature characteristics in central Asia from 1901 to 2005, including the rising periods and the fluctuations of the north and south inversion phases. Overall, this study provides a valuable reference for future climate prediction studies in central Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accelerated global warming and heterogeneous change in precipitation have been resulting in climate system shifts, which plays a key role in the stability of ecosystem and social economic development. Central Asia is account 80% of the temperate desert, characterized by fragile ecosystem; however, it has experienced the fastest warming in recent decades and projected warming in future. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is a useful tool to assess the potential impacts of climate change on regional ecosystem. The spatial shift and temporal evolution of each climatic zone based on Köppen-Geiger climate classification are analyzed in historical and future period under different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), high risk regions that might experience more frequent climatic zone shifts are delimited in this study, which could provide the useful information for developing mitigate strategies in coping with the warming threat. The hotter and dryer subtypes of arid climatic zone and warmer subtypes of temperate climatic zone expanded their coverage in Central Asia, corresponding to the tundra climatic, cooler subtype of arid and temperate climatic zone contracted. Based on a method defining the climate-sensitivity, high risk regions are mainly distributed in northern Kazakhstan and Tianshan Mountains region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation is a key process in the hydrologic cycle. However, accurate precipitation data are scarce in high mountainous areas, mainly restricted by complex topography, solid precipitation and sparse recording stations. In order to evaluate the quality of precipitation measurement, this study conducted a comparison campaign of precipitation measurements with the PWS100 laser sensor and the Geonor T-200B rain gauge for an entire year from 30 April 2018 to 1 May 2019 at an elevation of 3835 m in a nival glacial zone in eastern Tianshan, Central Asia. The results show that the daily precipitation values recorded by Geonor T-200B and PWS100 are well correlated and the annual precipitation amounts recorded by the two instruments differ by 7%, indicating good capabilities of both instruments in solid precipitation measurement. However, the amount of precipitation measured by Geonor T-200B was 36 mm lower in June to August and 120 mm higher in the remaining months compared with the values measured by PWS100. Our study indicated that Geonor T-200B is more efficient than PWS100 in terms of catching solid precipitation measurements. According to the PWS100 data, the experiment site was dominated by solid precipitation particles, accounting for 60% of total precipitation particles. Based on the precipitation particle and in-situ air temperature measurements, a set of temperature thresholds were established to discriminate rain, sleet and snow. The threshold temperature of rainfall and snowfall is −1.5 and 8 °C, respectively. When air temperature ranges from −1.5 to 8 °C, sleet occurs, meanwhile the ratio of rain to snow depends on air temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming may impact agricultural production across Central Asia. We used the simulated daily data of average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project and analyzed the current climate status and future projected changes of a set of climate extreme indices related to agricultural production under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming. In addition, the possible impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Central Asia were discussed. The results show that the annual mean temperature in Central Asia will increase by 1.48 °C and 2.34 °C at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels, respectively, compared to the base period (1986–2005), and the increasing trends are significant at the α = 0.01 level for all grids. The number of warm days and growing season length will increase. Under the 1.5 °C scenario, the mean annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and heavy precipitation (R95P) will experience increases of 7.68% and 26.55%, respectively, and the consecutive dry days (CDD) will be reduced by 1.1 days. However, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) shows significant drought conditions in most of Central Asia (more than 60%). Under the 2 °C scenario, there will be a 3.89% increase in PRCPTOT and a 24.78% increase in R95P. Nevertheless, accompanying the increase in CDD (0.8 day) and the decrease in SPEI, drought conditions will be further exacerbated. These results indicate that Central Asia is likely to face more severe ecological problems in the future, which will threaten the regional agricultural production and the food security. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be implemented immediately to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on Central Asia's agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive Version 2 (IGRA2) and the Multi Model Ensemble (MME) of four global climate models (GCMs), named CanESM5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0, within the framework of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we analyzed the changes in atmospheric total column water vapor (TCWV) over Central Asia in the future (2021–2100) under SSP-RCPs scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5, relative to baseline period (1986–2005). Results showed that the annual mean TCWV from IGRA2 was consistent with the model output from 1979 to 2014 in Central Asia. Besides, the spatial distribution of TCWV in Central Asia during the baseline period was consistent between the models. The regional average value of Central Asia was between 10.8 mm and 12.4 mm, and decreased with elevation. TCWV will increase under different SSP-RCPs from 2021 to 2040, but showed different trends after 2040. It will increase under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios from 2021 to 2050, and decrease after that. It will grow from 2021 to 2055 under SSP4-3.4 scenario, and then stay essentially constant. Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-6.0 scenarios, TCWV will rise rapidly during 2021–2065, but the growth will decline from 2065 to 2100. TCWV will continue to increase under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and the largest increase is projected under SSP5-8.5 scenario. Change in near-surface temperature (Ts) matched the change in TCWV, but changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration are not significant during 2021–2100. In spite of the large variations in TCWV under different SSP-RCPs, the dominant characteristic in all scenarios shows that a large TCWV increase is demonstrated over areas with small TCWV amounts during the baseline period. On the contrary, increases will be small where the TCWV amounts had been large during the baseline period. The change in TCWV is highly correlated to the increase in Ts in Central Asia. Under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the higher the temperature due to higher radiative forcing, the steeper the regression slope between TCWV and Ts change. It is closest to the theoretical value of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, but not presented under other scenarios. Spatially, steeper regression slopes during 2021–2100 have been found around the Caspian Sea in the southwest and in the high-elevation areas in the southeast of Central Asia, which is likely related to the abundant local water supply for evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Equivalent black carbon (EBC) was measured with a seven-wavelength Aethalometer (AE-31) in the Urumqi River Valley, eastern Tien Shan, China. This is the first high-resolution, online measurement of EBC conducted in the eastern Tien Shan allowing analysis of the seasonal and hourly variations of the light absorption properties of EBC. Results showed that the highest concentrations of EBC were in autumn, followed by those in summer. The hourly variations of EBC showed two plateaus during 8:00–9:00 h local time (LT) and 16:00–19:00 h LT, respectively. The contribution of biomass burning to EBC in winter and spring was higher than in summer and autumn. The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) showed an inverse relationship with EBC concentrations, suggesting that the reduction of the PBLH leads to enhanced EBC. The aerosol optical depths (AOD) over the Urumqi River Valley, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and back trajectory analysis, showed that the pollution from Central Asia was more likely to affect the atmosphere of Tien Shan in summer and autumn. This suggests that long-distance transported pollutants from Central Asia could also be potential contributors to EBC concentrations in the Urumqi River Valley, the same as local anthropogenic activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mineral dust composition affects a multitude of processes in the atmosphere and adjacent compartments. Dust dry deposition was collected near source in northwest Africa, in Central Asia, and on Svalbard and at three locations of the African outflow regime. Samples were subjected to automated scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray analysis to obtain size and composition of 216,000 individual particles. Results show low temporal variation in estimated optical properties for each location, but considerable differences between the African, Central Asian, and Arctic regimes. No significant difference was found between the K-feldspar relative abundances, indicating comparable related ice-nucleation abilities. The mixing state between calcium and iron compounds was different for near source and transport regimes, potentially in part due to size sorting effects. As a result, in certain situations (high acid availability, limited time) atmospheric processing of the dust is expected to lead to less increased iron solubility for near-source dusts (in particular for Central Asian ones) than for transported ones (in particular of Sahelian origin). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The divergence problem, which manifests as an unstable response relationship between tree-ring growth and climatic factors under the background of global warming, poses a challenge to both the traditional theory of dendroclimatology and the reliability of climatic reconstructions based on tree-ring data. Although Schrenk spruce, as the dominant tree species in the Tianshan Mountains, is frequently applied in the dendrochronological studies, the understanding of the divergence problem of this tree species is still limited. This study conducted correlation analysis between climatic factors and tree-ring width chronologies from 51 living and healthy specimens of Schrenk spruce at sites of high and low elevation in the Alatau Mountains to determine the stability of the response. The results revealed that the tree-ring width of the spruce specimens was correlated positively with precipitation and correlated negatively with temperature. Although the variations of the two tree-ring chronologies were similar, the radial growth of the spruce at the low elevation was found more sensitive to climatic factors. Furthermore, the sensitivity of tree growth to climate demonstrated an obvious increase after an abrupt change of climate under the background of the recent warming and wetting trend. Increased drought stress, calculated based on climatic data, was regarded as the main reason for this phenomenon. The results supply the gap of the stability of climatic response of tree growth in Central Asia to some extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]