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The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is used to simulate the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the 2011–2020 winter. The 45 day hindcasts are made with 30 km horizontal resolution and constructed to a time-lagged ensemble system. The climatology, the major modes of EAWM variability, and the blocking activities are examined. The evaluation results reveal that MPAS can simulate the climatologic characteristics of EAWM reasonably, with a surface cold bias of 4% and a positive rainfall bias of 9% over East Asia. MPAS can perform skillfully in the forecasts of surface temperature probability of East Asia and is more reliable in detecting below normal and above normal events. The features that influence the EAWM variability are also analyzed. MPAS simulates reasonably in the occurrence frequency of blocking high in both locations and duration time. The empirical orthogonal function analysis also shows that MPAS can capture the two major modes of the surface temperature of EAWM. On the other hand, it is also found that a biased sea surface temperature may modify the circulations over the Western Pacific and affect the simulated occurrence frequency of cold events near Taiwan during winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoon-induced storm surges are catastrophic disasters in coastal areas worldwide, although typhoon surges are not extremely high in Taiwan. However, the rising water level around an estuary could be a block that obstructs the flow of water away from the estuary and indirectly forms an overflow in the middle or lower reaches of a river if the occurrence of the highest storm surge (HSS) coincides with the highest astronomical tide (HAT). Therefore, assessing the highest storm tide (HST, a combination of the HSS and HAT) hazard level along the coast of Taiwan is particularly important to an early warning of riverine inundation. This study hindcasted the storm surges of 122 historical typhoon events from 1979 to 2018 using a high-resolution, unstructured-grid, surge-wave fully coupled model and a hybrid typhoon wind model. The long-term recording measurements at 28 tide-measuring stations around Taiwan were used to analyze the HAT characteristics. The hindcasted HSSs of each typhoon category (the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan classified typhoon events into nine categories according to the typhoon's track) were extracted and superposed on the HATs to produce the individual potential HST hazard maps. Each map was classified into six hazard levels (I to VI). Finally, a comprehensive potential HST hazard map was created based on the superposition of the HSSs from 122 typhoon events and HATs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]