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Extreme precipitation has often occurred in Southeastern China, while the possible mechanism is not clear. In order to bridge the scale gap between large-scale circulation and extreme precipitation, in this paper, the k-means clustering technique—a common method of weather-type (WT) analysis—was applied to regional 850-hPa wind fields. The reasonable determination of k values can make the later WT analyses more reliable. Thus, the Davies–Bouldin (BD) criterion index is used in the clustering process, and the optimal value of the k was determined. Then, we obtain and analyze the frequency, persistence, and progression of WTs. The rule of transitions from one WT to another may help explain some of the physical processes in winter. We found a special evolutionary chain (WT3→WT1→WT2→WT5→WT3) that can be used to explain the cold wave weather process in winter. Different WTs in the evolutionary chain correspond well to different stages of the cold wave weather process (gestation (WT3), outbreak (WT1), eastward withdrawal (WT2), and extinction (WT5)). In addition, we found that there are obvious differences in precipitation between December and February. After reassembling five kinds of WTs, two modes are formed: dry WTs and wet WTs. Our research shows that the intraseasonal variation of precipitation can be attributed to the fluctuation between the wet and dry WTs, and the different phases of teleconnection can correspond well with it. For example, the relative frequencies of wet WTs are higher in February. These WTs correspond to the positive phase of the WP and ENSO, the negative phase of the EA and EU, and the strong MJO state of the second, third, and eighth phase. Our work has well established the relationship between synoptic scale and large-scale circulation, which provides a reference for climate model simulation and future climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to predict and study persistent extreme precipitation events (PEPEs) with a prediction period of 1–2 weeks is an important scientific problem faced by the meteorological circles at home and abroad. Based on the accurate description of the flood range caused by 14-day PEPEs, the comprehensive analysis method was used to obtain the weather characteristics related to 14-day PEPEs (including abnormal trough/ridge, westerly jet, atmospheric river (AR) activity, teleconnections, etc.). First, we selected three regions in China, North China (NC), the Yangtze River valley (YRV), and South China (SC), analyzed their 14-day PEPEs in summer (June to August), and composited them into an average circulation (500 hPa geopotential height field) to compare the weather patterns related to PEPEs in these regions. Then, several variables are composited to understand the evolution of the atmospheric state before and during the occurrence of PEPEs. Finally, potential applications of several teleconnection types and composites in advance prediction are studied. The main findings include: the common weather signals during the occurrence of PEPEs are characterized by obvious and continuous a high-low-high saddle field circulation configuration (conducive to the formation of frequent heavy rainfall), active westerly jet (westerly jet is the controlling factor of precipitation), and enhanced water vapor transport (significantly increased atmospheric river activity). In this study, some key characteristics and development of PEPEs were identified, the formation mechanism of China's 14-day PEPEs was revealed, the role of ARs in PEPEs was recognized, and the PEPEs precursor signal was extracted. Furthermore, PEPEs in different regions were also compared, which played an important role in understanding and predicting similar events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]