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Source attribution of airborne particulate matter (PM) relies on a host of different chemical species. Organic molecular markers are a set of particularly useful marker compounds for estimating source contributions to the fine PM fraction (i.e., PM2.5). Although there are many source apportionment studies based on organic markers, these studies heavily rely on the few studies that report region-specific emission profiles. Source attribution efforts, particularly those conducted in countries with emerging economies, benefit from ad hoc information to conduct the corresponding analyses. In this study, we report organic molecular marker source profiles for PM2.5 emitted from 12 major sources types from five general source categories (meat cooking operations, vehicle exhausts, industries, biomass and trash burning, and urban background) for the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (Mexico). Source emission samples were obtained from a ground-based source-dominated sampling approach. Filter-based instruments were utilized, and the loaded filters were chemically characterized for organic markers by GC-MS. Levoglucosan and cholesterol dominate charbroiled-cooking operation sources while methoxyphenols, PAHs and hopanes dominate open-waste burning, vehicle exhaust and industrial emissions, respectively. A statistical analysis showed values of the Pearson distance < 0.4 and the similarity identity distance > 0.8 in all cases, indicating dissimilar source profiles. This was supported by the coefficient of divergence average values that ranged from 0.62 to 0.72. These profiles could further be utilized in receptor models to conduct source apportionment in regions with similar characteristics and can also be used to develop air pollution abatement strategies.

Statistical time series forecasting is a useful tool for predicting air pollutant concentrations in urban areas, especially in emerging economies, where the capacity to implement comprehensive air quality models is limited. In this study, a general multiple regression with seasonal autoregressive moving average errors model was estimated and implemented to forecast maximum ozone concentrations with a short time resolution: overnight, morning, afternoon and evening. In contrast to a number of short-term air quality time series forecasting applications, the model was designed to explicitly include the effects of meteorological variables on the ozone level as exogenous variables. As the application location, the model was constructed with data from five monitoring stations in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area of Mexico. The results show that, together with structural stochastic components, meteorological parameters have a significant contribution for obtaining reliable forecasts. The resulting model is an interpretable, useful and easily implementable model for forecasting ozone maxima. Moreover, it proved to be consistent with the general dynamics of ozone formation and provides a suitable platform for forecasting, showing similar or better performance compared to models in other existing studies.

Tropospheric levels of O3 have historically exceeded the official annual Mexican standards within the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA) in NE Mexico. High-frequency and high-precision measurements of tropospheric O3, NOy, NO2, NO, CO, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 were made at the Obispado monitoring site near the downtown MMA from September 2012 to August 2013. The seasonal cycles of O3 and NOy are driven by changes in meteorology and to a lesser extent by variations in primary emissions. The NOy levels were positively correlated with O3 precursors and inversely correlated with O3 and wind speed. Recorded data were used to assess the O3-Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)-NOx system’s sensitivity through an observational-based approach. The photochemical indicator O3/NOy was derived from measured data during the enhanced O3 production period (12:00–18:00 Central Daylight Time (CDT), GMT-0500). The O3/NOy ratios calculated for this time period showed that the O3 production within the MMA is VOC sensitive. A box model simulation of production rates of HNO3 (PHNO3) and total peroxides (Pperox) carried out for O3 episodes in fall and spring confirmed the VOC sensitivity within the MMA environment. No significant differences were observed in O3/NOy from weekdays to weekends or for PHNO3/Pperox ratios, confirming the limiting role of VOCs in O3 production within the MMA. The ratified photochemical regime observed may allow the environmental authorities to revise and verify the current policies for air quality control within the MMA.