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The western Mediterranean Sea area is frequently affected in autumn by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). These severe meteorological episodes, characterized by strong offshore low-level winds and heavy rain in a short period of time, can lead to severe flooding and wave-submersion events. This study aims to progress towards an integrated short-range forecast system via coupled modeling for a better representation of the processes at the air–sea interface. In order to identify and quantify the coupling impacts, coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave simulations were performed for a HPE that occurred between 12 and 14 October 2016 in the south of France. The experiment using the coupled AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system was notably compared to atmosphere-only, coupled atmosphere–wave and ocean–atmosphere simulations. The results showed that the HPE fine-scale forecast is sensitive to both couplings: the interactive coupling with the ocean leads to significant changes in the heat and moisture supply of the HPE that intensify the convective systems, while coupling with a wave model mainly leads to changes in the low-level dynamics, affecting the location of the convergence that triggers convection over the sea. Result analysis of this first case study with the AROME-NEMO-WaveWatchIII system does not clearly show major changes in the forecasts with coupling and highlights some attention points to follow (ocean initialization notably). Nonetheless, it illustrates the higher realism and potential benefits of kilometer-scale coupled numerical weather prediction systems, in particular in the case of severe weather events over the sea and/or in coastal areas, and shows their affordability to confidently progress towards operational coupled forecasts.

This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a heavy precipitation event that occurred between 12 and 14 October 2016 over the north-western Mediterranean area and led to large amounts of rainfall (up to 300 mm in 24 h) over the Hérault region (southern France). The study case was characterized by a very strong (>20 m s−1) easterly to south-easterly wind at low level that generated very rough seas (significant wave height of up to 6 m) along the French Riviera and the Gulf of Lion. In order to investigate the role of the waves on air–sea exchanges during such extreme events, a set of numerical experiments was designed using the Météo-France kilometre-scale AROME-France numerical weather prediction model – including the WASP (Wave-Age-dependant Stress Parametrization) sea surface turbulent flux parametrization – and the WaveWatch III wave model. Results from these sensitivity experiments in the forced or coupled modes showed that taking the waves generated by the model into account increases the surface roughness. Thus, the increase in the momentum flux induces a slowdown of the easterly low-level atmospheric flow and a displacement of the convergence line at sea. Despite strong winds and a young sea below the easterly flow, the turbulent heat fluxes upstream of the precipitating system are not significantly modified. The forecast of the heaviest precipitation is finally modified when the sea state is taken into account; notably, in terms of location, this modification is slightly larger in the forced mode than in the coupled mode, as the coupling interactively balances the wind sea, the stress and the wind.