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Machine learning methods are increasingly being used in the field of air quality research to investigate the relationship between air pollutant levels, emissions, and meteorological changes over time. This research is used for both scientific investigation, and policy assessment and development. However, there is a lack of studies that have compared the performance of different machine learning methods. To address this gap, this paper employed various machine learning techniques, including decision tree, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), support vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbor, neural network, and Gaussian process regression, to predict daily average PM 2.5 levels and the number of days with PM 2.5 exceedance in the South Coast Air Basin of California from 2000 to 2019. The models were trained using meteorological factors, estimated emissions, and large-scale climate indices as inputs. The SVR model demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy for PM 2.5 levels and the SVM model gave the most accurate results for predicting the number of days with PM 2.5 exceedances. Conversely, the decision tree model performed the least accurately. The results also showed that emissions have a greater impact on PM 2.5 levels over time compared to meteorological factors, though meteorology is responsible for daily variability. The most important meteorological factors were identified as surface relative humidity and relative humidity at 850 mbars, which are related to partitioning, cloud cover and wet deposition. We conducted sensitivity tests on the model's response to emissions and meteorological factors. The predicted PM 2.5 from RF and SVR showed large correlations with emissions at the early period (2000–2010). However, the changes were minimal in more recent years (2011–2019), implying that there are biases in machine learning models, in which the models consistently predict the minimum PM 2.5 levels at a baseline. [Display omitted] • SVR is more accurate on daily PM 2.5 , particularly PM 2.5 exceedances predictions. • Surface RH was the most important meteorological factor for PM 2.5 prediction. • The impact of emissions on PM 2.5 was significant before 2010 but reduced thereafter. • ML models predict past better than future; all the ML models are limited at extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study characterized nitrogen oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH 3) emissions from five in-use goods movement vehicles, including one diesel vehicle without selective catalytic reduction (SCR), two diesel vehicles with SCR, and two ultra-low NOx natural gas vehicles equipped with three-way catalysts (TWCs). Emissions testing was performed under real-world driving conditions in typical goods movement routes in the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) of California. NOx emissions varied depending on the vehicle and the route. The no-SCR diesel vehicle showed the highest NOx emissions over all the routes. One of the SCR-equipped vehicles showed NOx emission rates that were two times higher than the other SCR-equipped vehicle with similar engine model year and mileage, which may be attributed to catalyst deterioration. The SCR-equipped diesel vehicles were within two to three times 0.2 g/bhp-hr certification standard over the different routes. The natural gas vehicles showed average NOx emissions around or below the optional Low NOx emissions standard of 0.02 g/bhp-hr. The three-bin moving average window (MAW) method was utilized to show the NOx emissions across various modes of operation, including idle, low load, and medium/high load. The highest fraction of vehicle operation was found in either the low load or medium/high load bins, depending on the route. NOx emissions for each of the bins varied between different vehicles, and are further analyzed in this paper. NH 3 emissions formation was favored for the TWC-equipped natural gas vehicles, which produced about 20 times more NH 3 emissions than the SCR-equipped diesel vehicles. [Display omitted] • Significant NOx reductions for the natural gas vehicles compared to the SCR-equipped diesel vehicles. • NH 3 formation favored in the TWC for the natural gas vehicles and produced during acceleration events. • Low load and medium/high load conditions dominated vehicle operation and NOx emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]