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Abstract: As a pioneer in controlling vehicle emissions within China, Beijing released the Clean Air Action Plan 2013–2017 document in August 2013 to improve its urban air quality. It has put forward this plan containing the most stringent emission control policies and strategies to be adopted for on-road vehicles of Beijing. This paper estimates the historic and future trends and uncertainties in vehicle emissions of Beijing from 1998 to 2020 by applying a new emission factor model for the Beijing vehicle fleet (EMBEV). Our updated results show that total emissions of CO, THC, NO x and PM2.5 from the Beijing vehicle fleet are 507 (395–819) kt, 59.1 (41.2–90.5) kt, 74.7 (54.9–103.9) kt and 2.69 (1.91–4.17) kt, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. This represents significant reductions of 58%, 59%, 31% and 62%, respectively, relative to the total vehicle emissions in 1998. The past trends clearly posed a challenge to NOx emission mitigation for the Beijing vehicle fleet, especially in light of those increasing NO x emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs) which have partly offset the reduction benefit from light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs). Because of recently announced vehicle emission controls to be adopted in Beijing, including tighter emissions standards, limitations on vehicle growth by more stringent license control, promotion of alternative fuel technologies (e.g., natural gas) and the scrappage of older vehicles, estimated vehicle emissions in Beijing will continue to be mitigated by 74% of CO, 68% of THC, 56% of NO x and 72% of PM2.5 in 2020 compared to 2010 levels. Considering that many of the megacities in China are facing tremendous pressures to mitigate emissions from on-road vehicles, our assessment will provide a timely case study of significance for policy-makers in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Valuation of health effects of air pollution is becoming a critical component of the performance of cost–benefit analysis of pollution control measures, which provides a basis for setting priorities for action. Beijing has focused on control of transport emission as vehicular emissions have recently become an important source of air pollution, particularly during Olympic games and Post-games. In this paper, we conducted an estimation of health effects and economic cost caused by road transport-related air pollution using an integrated assessment approach which utilizes air quality model, engineering, epidemiology, and economics. The results show that the total economic cost of health impacts due to air pollution contributed from transport in Beijing during 2004–2008 was 272, 297, 310, 323, 298 million US$ (mean value), respectively. The economic costs of road transport accounted for 0.52, 0.57, 0.60, 0.62, and 0.58% of annual Beijing GDP from 2004 to 2008. Average cost per vehicle and per ton of PM10 emission from road transport can also be estimated as 106 US $/number and 3584 US $ t−1, respectively. These findings illustrate that the impact of road transport contributed particulate air pollution on human health could be substantial in Beijing, whether in physical and economic terms. Therefore, some control measures to reduce transport emissions could lead to considerable economic benefit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]