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For regions where limited in-situ observations are available for use as a reference, such as in China, the understanding of how changes in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol retrieval algorithm impact the data quality is limited. In this paper, the MODIS-Aqua Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) Collection 5 (C5) and 6 (C6) Dark-Target (DT) products are evaluated by comparison with similar products from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing NETwork (CARSNET) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) in China for the year 2008. The validation data are analyzed for key factors affecting the results of the MODIS-DT aerosol retrieval algorithm, including surface type, aerosol loading and aerosol absorption. The impacts of the change from the C5 to the C6 versions of the MODIS AOT retrieval algorithm are discussed in detail. The main findings are: (1) The agreement from retrieval aspects between both MODIS C5/C6 and CARSNET-AERONET for most AOT values over distinct regions indicates that the conclusions obtained from C5 hold for C6; (2) MODIS-DT has an extended coverage (more retrievals) with good quality due to the change of upstream data (calibration, cloud masking, etc); (3) About 64% of the MODISDT C6 AOT data over China fall within the (±0.15 AOT ± 0.05) error envelope; (4) positive AOT differences between C6 and C5 over relatively dark surfaces and negative differences over relatively bright surfaces due to the change of surface parameterization have been observed; (5) the AOT difference between MODIS and CARSNET-AERONET relating to AOT loading is not significant, especially for large AOT; (6) MODIS-DT performs well for absorbing aerosol over relatively bright surfaces. • MODIS/Aqua AOT C5/C6 DT products are evaluated to understand the effects of different parameters on algorithm performance. • Both MODIS C5 and C6 DT show good quality over China under different surface and atmospheric conditions. • MODIS C6 DT aerosol product has an extended coverage with good quality over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hybrid downscaling model for operational prediction of summer precipitation at 160 stations over China is proposed in this paper. The prediction model is conducted in February, and six predictors extending from the tropics to high latitudes with specific mechanisms are involved. Simultaneous sea level pressure over pan-East Asia and spring sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Atlantic Ocean are from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The others are observational predictors including winter SST over the tropical Indian Ocean, sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Hudson Bay–Baffin Bay–Davis Strait in winter and the Barents–Kara Sea in autumn, and winter outgoing longwave radiation over the tropics. Different predictors impact the summer precipitation of different regions in China. Validations for schemes based on individual predictors (IP-schemes) and all predictors (HD-scheme) indicate that downscaling schemes outperform CFSv2 in predicting summer precipitation over China, especially the HD-scheme. The temporal and spatial anomaly correlation coefficient, root-mean-square errors, and ratio of the same sign (RSS) are estimated. For RSS (Anomalous RSS), the results are improved from 27.8% (23.8%) for CFSv2 to 77.8% (61.9%) for HD-scheme. Notably, the RSSs of IP-schemes based on SIC are equivalent to that of HD-scheme. This partly emphasizes the importance of preceding Arctic sea ice to summer rainfall in China. Moreover, two cases from hindcasts and two from the operational application are chosen for further validation of the prediction skill of HD-scheme. The case studies confirm that the hybrid downscaling model proposed in this paper not only outperforms CFSv2 but can also be applied well to real-time forecasting of summer precipitation over China. • One-season‑leading hybrid downscaling prediction model for summer rainfall in China. • Combination of the year-to-year increment method and spatially coupled downscaling approach. • Considering predictors with specific mechanisms from tropics to high latitudes. • Considering both simultaneous and preceding predictors • Well applied in real-time forecasting [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980–2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400–800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the uncertainty of satellite aerosol products for different surface types is very important for algorithm optimization and related applications. Ground-based aerosol observations provided by AERONET are most often used to validate satellite aerosol products. However, AERONET ground-based sites are unevenly distributed in China, mainly concentrated in urban areas, with few sites in other surface types, leading to limitations in evaluating the accuracy of products for different surface types. To address this issue, the National Civil Space Infrastructure Satellite Aerosol Product Validation Network (SIAVNET) is constructed to complement ground-based aerosol observations for multiple surface types in China and support the validation research of satellite aerosol products. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce SIAVNET and analyze the supplementary role it plays in the validation of satellite aerosol products for different surface types in China. Firstly, this study introduces the supplementation of SIAVNET to ground-based observations in different surface types. SIAVNET supplements 21 sites with multiple surface types, mainly supplementing vegetated areas, with 17 sites. In particular, SIAVNET places a site in bare land, which fills the gap of ground-based observation for bare land. Then, to further demonstrate the supplemental value of SIAVNET observation in the validation of satellite aerosol products, the accuracy of MODIS aerosol products with four different resolutions (i.e., 1 km, 3 km, 10 km, and 1°) for different surface types in China is evaluated using all ground-based observations. For bare land, the accuracy of different resolution products is obtained based on SIAVNET observations, with 50.91%–69.23% of the retrievals falling within the expected error, which fills the validation gap for bare land. For vegetated areas, compared to the AERONET-only based products evaluation, the use of SIAVNET significantly affects the validation results in grassland for the 3 km and 10 km products, with the proportion of retrievals falling within the expected error decreasing from 78.61%, 74.30% to 64.16% and 63.17%, failing to reach satisfactory levels (66%). For urban areas, supplemental SIAVNET observations have almost no effect on the validation results for the different aerosol products obtained based on AERONET. These results are expected to provide guidance for detailed satellite aerosol product validation over China using SIAVNET data. • SIAVNET complements the 21 sites with multiple surface types, especially filling the gap of observations in bare land. • By using the SIAVNET data, the accuracy of aerosol products over China is obtained. • The supplement of SAVNET-China data significantly influences the validation results of 3 km and 10 km products in grassland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]