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Objective: To identify demographic and medication-related predictors of unplanned hospitalisation and combine them into a hospitalisation risk score.Methods: Patients aged ≥65 years from an outpatient multimorbidity clinic were included. Hospitalisation predictors within a year of clinic discharge were identified using logistic regression. A risk score was developed. The area under the curve(AUC) was used to assess its predictive ability, compared to that of the medicines count (definition of polypharmacy). Results: A total of 598 patients were included (median age of 80.0 years). 58.0%(n = 347) were hospitalised within a year of clinic discharge. The AUC for the risk score incorporating age, medicines count, heart failure (HF), atherosclerotic disease and systemic steroids was 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.71], compared to 0.62 [95% CI 0.58-0.67] for the medicines count. Conclusion: A hospitalisation risk score incorporating demographics, medicines,namely steroids, and diseases such as HF had increased predictive ability compared to the medicines count, providing guidance for developing future polypharmacy tools. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Aim: To identify and evaluate the management and care of older people with multiple chronic health problems (MCHP). Methods: Administrative health data from the Department of Veterans' Affairs and bio-social data from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing are used to determine prevalence of MCHP, treatment patterns and patient outcomes. Focus groups and semistructured interviews are used to gain patient and health practitioner perspectives. Results: The prevalence of MCHP in older people is high (65%) and is associated with increased use of health services, mortality and poorer self-rated health. Australian disease-specific guidelines fail to address MCHP, and treatment conflicts with the potential to cause harm, were common. Conclusion: Improvements in the care and management of older people with MCHP requires: a multifaceted approach, across the health-care system; better coordination of holistic, patient-centred multidisciplinary care; and effective communication and education of all stakeholders. The Health reform agenda in Australia provides an opportunity for change.

To identify and evaluate the management and care of older people with multiple chronic health problems (MCHP).Administrative health data from the Department of Veterans' Affairs and bio-social data from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing are used to determine prevalence of MCHP, treatment patterns and patient outcomes. Focus groups and semistructured interviews are used to gain patient and health practitioner perspectives.The prevalence of MCHP in older people is high (65%) and is associated with increased use of health services, mortality and poorer self-rated health. Australian disease-specific guidelines fail to address MCHP, and treatment conflicts with the potential to cause harm, were common.Improvements in the care and management of older people with MCHP requires: a multifaceted approach, across the health-care system; better coordination of holistic, patient-centred multidisciplinary care; and effective communication and education of all stakeholders. The Health reform agenda in Australia provides an opportunity for change.