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A flexible distribution has been introduced to handle random variables in the unit interval. This distribution is based on an exponential transformation of the truncated positive normal distribution with two parameters and can effectively fit data with varying degrees of skewness and kurtosis. Therefore, it presents an alternative for modeling this type of data. Several mathematical and statistical properties of this distribution have been derived, such as moments, hazard function, the Bonferroni curve, and entropy. Moreover, we investigate the characterizations of the proposed distribution based on its hazard function. Parameter estimation has been performed using both the maximum likelihood method and method of the moments. Because of this, we were able to determine the best critical region and the information matrix, facilitating the calculation of asymptotic confidence intervals. A simulation study is presented to analyze the behavior of the obtained estimators for different sample sizes. To demonstrate the suitability of the proposed distribution, applications and goodness-of-fit tests have been performed on two practical data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the vast statistical literature, there are numerous probability distribution models that can model data from real-world phenomena. New probability models, nevertheless, are still required in order to represent data with various spread behaviors. It is a known fact that there is a great need for new models with limited support. In this study, a flexible probability model called the unit Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, which can model data values in the unit interval, is derived by selecting the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution as a base-line model. The important characteristics of the derived distribution in terms of statistics and mathematics are investigated in detail in this study. Furthermore, the inference problem for the mentioned distribution is addressed from the perspectives of maximum likelihood, method of moments, least squares, and maximum product space, and different estimators are obtained for the unknown parameter of the distribution. The derived distribution outperforms competitive models according to different fit tests and information criteria in the applications performed on four actual air pollutant concentration data sets, indicating that it is an effective model for modeling air pollutant concentration data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Count data consists of both observed and unobserved events. The analysis of count data often encounters overdispersion, where traditional Poisson models may not be adequate. In this paper, we introduce a tractable one-parameter mixed Poisson distribution, which combines the Poisson distribution with the improved second-degree Lindley distribution. This distribution, called the Poisson-improved second-degree Lindley distribution, is capable of effectively modeling standard count data with overdispersion. However, if the frequency of the unobserved events is unknown, the proposed distribution cannot be directly used to describe the events. To address this limitation, we propose a modification by truncating the distribution to zero. This results in a tractable zero-truncated distribution that encompasses all types of dispersions. Due to the unknown frequency of unobserved events, the population size as a whole becomes unknown and requires estimation. To estimate the population size, we develop a Horvitz–Thompson-like estimator utilizing truncated distribution. Both the untruncated and truncated distributions exhibit desirable statistical properties. The estimators for both distributions, as well as the population size, are asymptotically unbiased and consistent. The current study demonstrates that both the truncated and untruncated distributions adequately explain the considered medical datasets, which are the number of dicentric chromosomes after being exposed to different doses of radiation and the number of positive Salmonella. Moreover, the proposed population size estimator yields reliable estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel count time-series model, named integer-valued Split-BREAK process of the first order, abbr. INSB(1) model. This process is examined in terms of its basic stochastic properties, such as stationarity, mean, variance and correlation structure. In addition, the marginal distribution, over-dispersion and zero-inflation properties of the INSB(1) process are also examined. To estimate the unknown parameters of the INSB(1) process, an estimation procedure based on probability generating functions (PGFs) is proposed. For the obtained estimators, their asymptotic properties, as well as the appropriate simulation study, are examined. Finally, the INSB(1) process is applied in the dynamic analysis of some real-world series, namely, the numbers of serious traffic accidents in Serbia and forest fires in Greece. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INAR models have the great advantage of being able to capture the conditional distribution of a count time series based on their past observations, thus allowing it to be tailored to meet the unique characteristics of count data. This paper reviews the two-parameter Poisson extended exponential (PEE) distribution and its corresponding INAR(1) process. Then the INAR of order p (INAR(p)) model that incorporates PEE innovations is proposed, its statistical properties are presented, and its parameters are estimated using conditional least squares and conditional maximum likelihood estimation methods. Two practical data sets are analyzed and compared with competing INAR models in an effort to gauge the performance of the proposed model. It is found that the proposed model performs better than the competitors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Count data are encountered in real-life dealings. More understanding of such data and the extraction of important information about the data require some statistical analysis or modeling. One innovative technique to increase the modeling flexibility of well-known distributions is to use the convolution of random variables. This study examines the distribution that results from adding two independent random variables, one with the Bernoulli distribution and the other with the Poisson–Lindley distribution. The considered distribution is named as the two-parameter Bernoulli–Poisson–Lindley distribution. Many of its statistical properties are investigated, such as moments, survival and hazard rate functions, mode, dispersion behavior, mean deviation about the mean, and parameter inference based on the maximum likelihood method. To evaluate the effectiveness of the bias and mean square error of the produced estimates, a simulation exercise is carried out. Then, applications to two practical data sets are given. Finally, we construct a flexible count data regression model based on the proposed distribution with two practical examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript deals with a novel, nonlinear, and non-stationary stochastic model with symmetric, Laplacian distributed innovations. The obtained model, named Laplacian Split-BREAK (LSB) process, is intended for dynamic analysis of time series with pronounced and permanent fluctuations. By using the method of characteristic functions (CFs), the basic stochastic properties of the LSB process are proven, with a special emphasis on its asymptotic behaviour. The different procedures for estimating its parameters are also given, along with numerical simulations of the obtained estimators. Finally, it has been shown that the LSB process, as an adequate stochastic model, can be applied in the analysis of dynamics in the world market of crude oil and natural gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The beta regression model (BRM) is used when the dependent variable may take continuous values and be bounded in the interval (0, 1), such as rates, proportions, percentages and fractions. Generally, the parameters of the BRM are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). However, the MLE does not offer accurate and reliable estimates when the explanatory variables in the BRM are correlated. To solve this problem, the ridge and Liu estimators for the BRM were proposed by different authors. In the current study, the James Stein Estimator (JSE) for the BRM is proposed. The matrix mean squared error (MSE) and the scalar MSE properties are derived and then compared to the available ridge estimator, Liu estimator and MLE. The performance of the proposed estimator is evaluated by conducting a simulation experiment and analyzing two real-life applications. The MSE of the estimators is considered as a performance evaluation criterion. The findings of the simulation experiment and applications indicate the superiority of the suggested estimator over the competitive estimators for estimating the parameters of the BRM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]