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Natural wetlands are among the most important sources of methane; thus, these areas are important for better understanding long-term temporal variations in atmospheric methane concentration. During the last 60 years, wetlands have experienced extensive conversion and global impacts from climate warming, which makes the estimation of methane emission from wetlands highly uncertain. In this paper, we present a modeling framework, integrating CH4MODwetland, TOPMODEL and TEM models, to analyze the temporal and spatial variations in CH4 emissions from natural wetlands (including inland wetlands, coastal wetlands, lakes and rivers) in China. Our analysis revealed an increase of 25.5%, averaging 0.52 gm-2 per decade, in national CH4 fluxes from 1950 to 2010, which was mainly induced by climate warming. Higher rates of increasing CH4 fluxes occurred in northeastern, northern and northwestern China, associated with large temperature increases. However, decreases in precipitation due to climate warming offset the increase in CH4 fluxes in these regions. The CH4 fluxes from the wetland on the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau exhibited a lower rate of increase, which was approximately 25% of that simulated in northeastern China. Although climate warming has accelerated CH4 fluxes, the total amount of national CH4 emissions decreased by approximately 2.35 Tg (1.91-2.81 Tg), i.e., from 4.50 Tg in the early 1950s to 2.15 Tg in the late 2000s, due to a large wetland loss of 17.0 million ha. Of this reduction, 0.26 Tg (0.24-0.28 Tg) was derived from lakes and rivers, 0.16Tg (0.13-0.20 Tg) from coastal wetlands, and 1.92Tg (1.54-2.33Tg) from inland wetlands. Northeastern China had the largest contribution to this reduction, with a loss of 1.68Tg. The CH4 emissions were reduced by more than half in most regions in China except for the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, where only a 23.3% decrease in CH4 was observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use an eddy-resolving, regional ocean biogeochemical model to investigate the main variables and processes responsible for the climatological spatio-temporal variability of pCO2 and the air--sea CO2 fluxes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, the region acts as sink of atmospheric CO2 south of 30° S, and is close to equilibrium with the atmospheric CO2 to the north. On the shelves, the ocean acts as a weak source of CO2, except for the mid/outer shelves of Patagonia, which act as sinks. In contrast, the inner shelves and the low latitude open ocean of the southwestern Atlantic represent source regions. Observed nearshore-to-offshore and meridional pCO2 gradients are well represented by our simulation. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of the counteracting effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in controlling the seasonal variability of pCO2. Biological production and solubility are the main processes regulating pCO2, with biological production being particularly important on the shelf regions. The role of mixing/stratification in modulating DIC, and therefore surface pCO2 is shown in a vertical profile at the location of the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) site in the Argentine Basin (42° S, 42° W). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the impacts of anthropogenic ocean acidification requires knowledge of present-day and future environmental conditions. Here, we present a simple model for upwelling margins that projects anthropogenic acidification trajectories by combining high-temporal resolution sensor data, hydrographic surveys for source water characterization, empirical relationships of the CO2 system, and the atmospheric CO22 record. This model characterizes CO2 variability on timescales ranging from hours (e.g. tidal) to months (e.g. seasonal), bridging a critical knowledge gap in ocean acidification research. The amount of anthropogenic carbon in a given water mass is dependent on the age, therefore a density-age relationship was derived for the study region, and was combined with the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CO2 emission scenarios to add density-dependent anthropogenic carbon to the sensor time series. The model was applied to time series from four autonomous pH sensors, each deployed in the surf zone, kelp forest, submarine canyon edge, and shelf break in the upper 100m of the Southern California Bight. All habitats were within 5 km of one another, and exhibited unique, habitat-specific CO2 variability signatures and acidification trajectories, demonstrating the importance of making projections in the context of habitat-specific CO2 2signatures. In general, both the mean and range of pCO2 increase in the future, with the greatest increases in both magnitude and range occurring in the deeper habitats due to reduced buffering capacity. On the other hand, the saturation state of aragonite (ΩAr) decreased in both magnitude and range. This approach can be applied to the entire California Current System, and upwelling margins in general, where sensor and complementary hydrographic data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Degradation of coastal ecosystems by eutrophication is largely defined by nitrogen loading from land via surface and groundwater flows. However, indicators of water quality are highly variable due to a myriad of other drivers, including temperature and precipitation. To evaluate these drivers, we examined spatial and temporal trends in a 22 year record of summer water quality data from 122 stations in 17 embayments within Buzzards Bay, MA (USA), collected through a citizen science monitoring program managed by Buzzards Bay Coalition. To identify spatial patterns across Buzzards Bay's embayments, we used a principle component and factor analysis and found that rotated factor loadings indicated little correlation between inorganic nutrients and organic matter and chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration. Factor scores showed that embayment geomorphology in addition to nutrient loading was a strong driver of water quality, where embayments with surface water inputs showed larger biological impacts than embayments dominated by groundwater influx. A linear regression analysis of annual summertime water quality indicators over time revealed that from 1992 to 2013, most embayments (15 of 17) exhibited an increase in temperature (mean rate of 0.082 ± 0.025 (SD) °C yr-1) and Chl a (mean rate of 0.0171 ± 0.0088 log10 (Chl a; mgm-3)yr-1, equivalent to a 4.0% increase per year). However, only 7 embayments exhibited an increase in total nitrogen (TN) concentration (mean rate 0.32 ± 0.47 (SD)μM yr-1). Average summertime log10 (TN) and log10 (Chl a) were correlated with an indication that yield of Chl a per unit total nitrogen increased with time suggesting the estuarine response to TN may have changed because of other stressors such as warming, altered precipitation patterns, or changing light levels. These findings affirm that nitrogen loading and physical aspects of embayments are essential in explaining observed ecosystem response. However, climate-related stressors may also need to be considered by managers because increased temperature and precipitation may worsen water quality and partially offset benefits achieved by reducing nitrogen loading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts on the marine biogeochemistry and lower trophic level dynamics in the North Sea and Baltic Sea have been assessed using regional downscaling in a number of recent studies. However, most of these where only forced by physical conditions from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional downscaling considering the climate change impact on oceanic nutrient conditions from Global Earth System Models (ESMs) are rare and so far solely based on CMIP3-generation climate models. The few studies published show a large range in projected future primary production and hydrodynamic condition. With the addition of CMIP5 models and scenarios, the demand to explore the uncertainty in regional climate change projections increased. Moreover, the question arises how projections based on CMIP5-generation models compare to earlier projections and multi-model ensembles comprising both AR4 and AR5 generation forcing models. Here, we investigated the potential future climate change impacts to the North Sea and the Baltic Sea ecosystem using a coherent regional downscaling strategy based on the regional coupled bio-physical model ECOSMO. ECOSMO was forced by output from different ESMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Multi-model ensembles using CMIP3/A1B and CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios are examined, where the selected CMIP5 models are the successors of the chosen CMIP3 models. Comparing projected changes with the present day reference condition, all these simulations predicted an increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both North Sea and Baltic Sea, reduction in sea ice in the Baltic, decrease in primary production in the North Sea and an increase in primary production in the Baltic Sea. Despite these largely consistent results on the direction of the projected changes, our results revealed a broad range in the amplitude of projected climate change impacts. Our study strengthens the claim that the choice of the ESM is a major factor for regional climate projections. The change in oceanic nutrient input appeared to be the major driver for the projected changes in North Sea primary production. Assessing the spread in ensemble groups, we found that there is for the North Sea a significant reduction in the spread of projected changes among CMIP5 forced model simulations compared to those forced by CMIP3 ESMs, except for salinity. The latter was due to an unexpected salinification observed in one of the CMIP5 model while all other models exhibit freshening in the future. However, for the Baltic Sea substantial differences in inter-model variability in projected climate change impact to primary production is lacking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania) is a rare example of a deep, ancient Mediterranean lake and is a key site for palaeoclimate research in the northeastern Mediterranean region. This study conducts the first high-resolution diatom analysis during the Lateglacial and Holocene in Lake Ohrid. It demonstrates a complex diatom response to temperature change, with a direct response to temperature-induced productivity and an indirect response to temperature-related stratification/mixing regime and epilimnetic nutrient availability. During the Lateglacial (ca. 12 300-11 800 cal yr BP), the low-diversity dominance of hypolimnetic Cyclotella fottii indicates low temperature-dependent lake productivity. During the earliest Holocene (ca. 11 800-10 600 cal yr BP), although the slight increase in small, epilimnetic C. minuscula suggests climate warming and enhanced thermal stratification, diatom concentration remains very low as during the Lateglacial, indicating that temperature increase was muted. The early Holocene (ca. 10 600- 8200 cal yr BP) marked a sustained increase in epilimnetic taxa, with mesotrophic C. ocellata indicating high temperature-induced lake productivity between ca. 10 600- 10 200 cal yr BP and between ca. 9500-8200 cal yr BP, and with C. minuscula in response to low nutrient availability in the epilimnion between ca. 10 200-9500 cal yr BP. During the mid Holocene (ca. 8200-2600 cal yr BP), when sedimentological and geochemical proxies provide evidence for high temperature, anomalously low C. ocellata abundance is probably a response to epilimnetic nutrient limitation, almost mimicking the Lateglacial flora apart from mesotrophic Stephanodiscus transylvanicus indicative of high temperature-induced productivity in the hypolimnion. During the late Holocene (ca. 2600-0 cal yr BP), high abundance and fluctuating composition of epilimnetic taxa is largely a response to enhanced anthropogenic nutrient input. In this deep, oligotrophic lake, this study demonstrates the strong influence of lake physical and chemical processes in mediating the complex response of diatoms to climate change with particular respect to temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Benthic nitrogen (N2) fixation and sulfate reduction (SR) were investigated in the Peruvian oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). Sediment samples, retrieved by a multiple corer were taken at six stations (70-1025m) along a depth transect at 12° S, covering anoxic and hypoxic bottom water conditions. Benthic N2 fixation was detected at all sites, with high rates measured in OMZ mid-waters between the 70 and 253m and lowest N2 fixation rates below 253m down to 1025m water depth. SR rates were decreasing with increasing water depth, with highest rates at the shallow site. Benthic N2 fixation depth profiles largely overlapped with SR depth profiles, suggesting that both processes are coupled. The potential of N2 fixation by SR bacteria was verified by the molecular analysis of nifH genes. Detected nifH sequences clustered with SR bacteria that have been demonstrated to fix N2 in other benthic environments. Depth-integrated rates of N2 fixation and SR showed no direct correlation along the 12° S transect, suggesting that the benthic diazotrophs in the Peruvian OMZ are being controlled by additional various environmental factors. The organic matter availability and the presence of sulfide appear to be major drivers for benthic diazotrophy. It was further found that N2 fixation was not inhibited by high ammonium concentrations. N2 fixation rates in OMZ sediments were similar to rates measured in other organic-rich sediments. Overall, this work improves our knowledge on N sources in marine sediments and contributes to a better understanding of N cycling in OMZ sediments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically rely on plant functional types (PFTs), which are assigned distinct environmental tolerances and replace one another progressively along environmental gradients. Fixed values of traits are assigned to each PFT; modelled trait variation along gradients is thus driven by PFT replacement. But empirical studies have revealed "universal" scaling relationships (quantitative trait variations with climate that are similar within and between species, PFTs and communities); and continuous, adaptive trait variation has been proposed to replace PFTs as the basis for next-generation DGVMs. Here we analyse quantitative leaf-trait variation on long temperature and moisture gradients in China with a view to understanding the relative importance of PFT replacement vs. continuous adaptive variation within PFTs. Leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and nitrogen content of dry matter were measured on all species at 80 sites ranging from temperate to tropical climates and from dense forests to deserts. Chlorophyll fluorescence traits and carbon, phosphorus and potassium contents were measured at 47 sites. Generalized linear models were used to relate log-transformed trait values to growing-season temperature and moisture indices, with or without PFT identity as a predictor, and to test for differences in trait responses among PFTs. Continuous trait variation was found to be ubiquitous. Responses to moisture availability were generally similar within and between PFTs, but biophysical traits (LA, SLA and LDMC) of forbs and grasses responded differently from woody plants. SLA and LDMC responses to temperature were dominated by the prevalence of evergreen PFTs with thick, dense leaves at the warm end of the gradient. Nutrient (N, P and K) responses to climate gradients were generally similar within all PFTs. Area-based nutrients generally declined with moisture; Narea and Karea declined with temperature, but Parea increased with temperature. Although the adaptive nature of many of these trait-climate relationships is understood qualitatively, a key challenge for modelling is to predict them quantitatively. Models must also take into account that community-level responses to climatic gradients can be influenced by shifts in PFT composition, such as the replacement of deciduous by evergreen trees, which may run either parallel or counter to trait variation within PFTs. The importance of PFT shifts varies among traits, being important for biophysical traits but less so for physiological and chemical traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth observation based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Version 3 (NDVI3g) and (2) Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) Version 3 NDVI (NDVI3v) and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI3v). We evaluated the two records via three experiments that addressed the primary use of such records in global change research: (1) prediction of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used in light-use efficiency modeling, (2) estimation of vegetation climatology in Soil- Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer models, and (3) trend analysis of the magnitude and phenology of vegetation productivity. Experiment one, unlike previous inter-comparison studies, was performed with a unique Landsat 30m spatial resolution and in situ LAI database for major crop types on five continents. Overall, the two records showed a high level of agreement both in direction and magnitude on a monthly basis, though VIP values were higher and more variable and showed lower correlations and higher error with in situ LAI. The records were most consistent at northern latitudes during the primary growing season and southern latitudes and the tropics throughout much of the year, while the records were less consistent at northern latitudes during green-up and senescence and in the great deserts of the world throughout much of the year. The two records were also highly consistent in terms of trend direction/magnitude, showing a 30+ year increase (decrease) in NDVI over much of the globe (tropical rainforests). The two records were less consistent in terms of timing due to the poor correlation of the records during start and end of growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic is the most intense region of ocean CO2 uptake. Here, we investigate multidecadal timescale variability of the partial pressure CO2 (pCO2) that is due to the natural carbon cycle using a regional model forced with realistic climate and pre-industrial atmospheric pCO2 for 1948-2009. Large-scale patterns of natural pCO2 variability are primarily associated with basin-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) that, in turn, is composed of two parts: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and a long-term positive SST trend. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives a secondary mode of variability. For the primary mode, positive AMO and the SST trend modify pCO2 with different mechanisms and spatial patterns. Warming with the positive AMO increases subpolar gyre pCO2, but there is also a significant reduction of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) due primarily to reduced vertical mixing. The net impact of positive AMO is to reduce pCO2 in the subpolar gyre. Through direct impacts on SST, the net impacts of positive AMO is to increase pCO2 in the subtropical gyre. From 1980 to present, long-term SST warming has amplified AMO impacts on pCO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric supply of dust iron (Fe) plays a crucial role in the Earth's biogeochemical cycle and is of specific importance as a micronutrient in the marine environment. Observations show several orders of magnitude variability in the fractional solubility of Fe in dust aerosols, making it hard to assess the role of mineral dust for global ocean biogeochemical Fe cycle. In this study we compare the operational solubility of dust aerosol Fe associated with one of the flow-through leaching protocols to the results of the global 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. In the protocol aerosol Fe is defined soluble by first deionized water leaching of mineral dust through a 0.45 µm pore size membrane followed by acidification and storage of the leachate over a long period of time prior to the analysis. To assess the concentrations of soluble Fe inferred by this flow-through leaching protocol we are using in situ measurements of dust size distribution with the prescribed of 50% fractional solubility of Fe in less than 0.45 µm sized dust particles collected in the leachate. In the model, the fractional solubility of Fe is either explicitly calculated using complex dust Fe dissolution module, or prescribed to be 1 and 4%. Calculations show that the fractional solubility of Fe derived through the flow-through leaching is typically higher compared to the model results. The largest differences (> 30%) are predicted to occur farther away from the dust source regions, over the areas where sub-0.45 µm sized mineral dust particles contribute a larger fraction of the total dust mass. This study suggests that inconsistences in the operational definition of soluble Fe could contribute to the wide range of the fractional solubility of dust aerosol Fe reported in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both atmospheric deposition and benthic remineralization influence the marine nitrogen cycle, and hence ultimately also marine primary production. The biological and biogeochemical relations of the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) to nitrogen deposition, benthic denitrification and phosphate regeneration are analysed in a prognostic box model of the oxygen, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in the ETSP . In the model, atmospheric nitrogen deposition based on estimates for the years 2000-2009 is offset by half by reduced N2 fixation, with the other half transported out of the model domain. Both model- and data-based benthic denitrification are found to trigger nitrogen fixation, partly compensating for the NO3-3- loss. Since phosphate is the ultimate limiting nutrient in the model, enhanced sedimentary phosphate regeneration under suboxic conditions stimulates primary production and subsequent export production and NO3- 3 loss in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). A sensitivity analysis of the local response to both atmospheric deposition and benthic remineralization indicates dominant stabilizing feedbacks in the ETSP, which tend to keep a balanced nitrogen inventory, i.e., nitrogen input by atmospheric deposition is counteracted by decreasing nitrogen fixation; NO3- loss via benthic denitrification is partly compensated by increased nitrogen fixation; enhanced nitrogen fixation stimulated by phosphate regeneration is partly removed by the stronger water-column denitrification. Even though the water column in our model domain acts as a NO3- source, the ETSP including benthic denitrification might become a NO3- sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of the chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl a]) in the Mediterranean Sea, which is mainly obtained from satellite surface observations or from scattered in situ experiments, is updated by analyzing a database of fluorescence profiles calibrated into [Chl a]. The database, which includes 6790 fluorescence profiles from various origins, was processed with a dedicated quality control procedure. To ensure homogeneity between the different data sources, 65% of fluorescence profiles have been inter-calibrated on the basis of their concomitant satellite [Chl a] estimation. The climatological pattern of [Chl a] vertical profile in four key sites of the Mediterranean Sea has been analyzed. Climatological results confirm previous findings on the range of [Chl a] values and on the main Mediterranean trophic regimes. It also provides new insights on the seasonal variability of the shape of the vertical [Chl a] profile, inaccessible from remote sensing observations. An analysis based on the recognition of the general shape of the fluorescence profile was also performed. Although the shape of [Chl a] vertical distribution characterized by a deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is ubiquitous during summer, different forms are observed during winter, suggesting thus that factors affecting the vertical distribution of the biomass are complex and highly variable. The [Chl a] distribution in the Mediterranean Sea mimics, at smaller scales, what is observed in the Global Ocean. As already evidenced by analyzing satellite surface observations, mid-latitude and subtropical like phytoplankton dynamics coexist in the Mediterranean Sea. Moreover, the Mediterranean DCM variability appears characterized by patterns already observed at global scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climatic events, such as droughts and heat stress induce anomalies in ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 fluxes, such as gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), and, hence, can change the net ecosystem carbon balance. However, despite our increasing understanding of the underlying mechanisms, the magnitudes of the impacts of different types of extremes on GPP and Reco within and between ecosystems remain poorly predicted. Here we aim to identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP). We focus on the impacts of heat and drought and their combination. We identified hydrometeorological extreme events in consistently downscaled water availability and temperature measurements over a 30 year time period. We then used FLUXNET eddy-covariance flux measurements to estimate the CO2 flux anomalies during these extreme events across dominant vegetation types and climate zones. Overall, our results indicate that short-term heat extremes increased respiration more strongly than they down-regulated GPP, resulting in a moderate reduction of the ecosystem's carbon sink potential. In the absence of heat stress, droughts tended to have smaller and similarly dampening effects on both GPP and Reco, and, hence, often resulted in neutral NEP responses. The combination of drought and heat typically led to a strong decrease in GPP, whereas heat and drought impacts on respiration partially offset each other. Taken together, compound heat and drought events led to the strongest C sink reduction compared to any single-factor extreme. A key insight of this paper, however, is that duration matters most: for heat stress during droughts, the magnitude of impacts systematically increased with duration, whereas under heat stress without drought, the response of Reco over time turned from an initial increase to a down-regulation after about two weeks. This confirms earlier theories that not only the magnitude but also the duration of an extreme event determines its impact. Our study corroborates the results of several local site-level case studies, but as a novelty generalizes these findings at the global scale. Specifically, we find that the different response functions of the two antipodal land-atmosphere fluxes GPP and Reco can also result in increasing NEP during certain extreme conditions. Apparently counterintuitive findings of this kind bear great potential for scrutinizing the mechanisms implemented in state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models and provide a benchmark for future model development and testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]