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Changes in the phenology of physical and ecological variables associated with climate change are likely to have significant effect on many aspects of the Baltic ecosystems. We apply a set of phenological indicators to multiple environmental variables measured by satellite sensors for 17-35 years to detect possible changes in the seasonality in the Baltic Sea environment. We detect significant temporal changes such as earlier start of the summer season and prolongation of the productive season in multiple variables ranging from basic physical drivers to ecological status indicators. While increasing trends in the absolute values of variables like sea-surface temperature (SST), diffuse attenuation of light (Ked490) and satellite-detected chlorophyll concentration (CHL) are detectable, the corresponding changes in their seasonal cycles are more dramatic. For example, the cumulative sum of 30 000Wm-2 of surface incoming shortwave irradiance (SIS) was reached 23 days earlier in 2014 compared to the beginning of the time series in 1983. The period of the year with SST of at least 17 °C has almost doubled (from 29 days in 1982 to 56 days in 2014), the period with Ked490 over 0.4m-1 has increased from about 60 days in 1998 to 240 days in 2013, i.e. quadrupled. The period with satellite-detected CHL of at least 3mgm-3 has doubled from approximately 110 days in 1998 to 220 days in 2013. While the timing of both the phytoplankton spring and summer blooms have advanced, the annual CHL maximum that in the 1980s corresponded to the spring diatom bloom in May has now switched to the summer cyanobacteria bloom in July. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a new process-based, weather-driven model for ammonia (NH3) emission from a urine patch has been developed and its sensitivity to various factors assessed. This model, the GAG model (Generation of Ammonia from Grazing) was developed as a part of a suite of weather-driven NH3 exchange models, as a necessary basis for assessing the effects of climate change on NH3 related atmospheric processes. GAG is capable of simulating the TAN (Total Ammoniacal Nitrogen) content, pH and the water content of the soil under a urine patch. To calculate the TAN budget, GAG takes into account urea hydrolysis as a TAN input and NH3 volatilization as a loss. In the water budget, in addition to the water content of urine, precipitation and evaporation are also considered. In the pH module we assumed that the main regulating processes are the dissociation and dissolution equilibria related to the two products of urea hydrolysis: ammonium and bicarbonate. Finally, in the NH3 exchange flux calculation we adapted a canopy compensation point model that accounts for exchange with soil pores and stomata as well as deposition to the leaf surface. We validated our model against measurements, and carried out a sensitivity analysis. The validation showed that the simulated parameters (NH3 exchange flux, soil pH, TAN budget and water budget) are well captured by the model (r > 0.5 for every parameter at p < 0.01 significance level). We found that process-based modelling of pH is necessary to reproduce the temporal development of NH3 emission. In addition, our results suggested that more sophisticated simulation of CO2 emission in the model could potentially improve the modelling of pH. The sensitivity analysis highlighted the vital role of temperature in NH3 exchange; however, presumably due to the TAN limitation, the GAG model currently provides only a modest overall temperature dependence in total NH3 emission compared with the values in the literature. Since all the input parameters can be obtained for study at larger scales, GAG is potentially suitable for larger scale application, such as in regional atmospheric and ecosystem models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coccolithophores are sensitive recorders of environmental change. The size of their coccosphere varies in the ocean along gradients of environmental conditions and provides a key for understanding the fate of this important phytoplankton group in the future ocean. But interpreting field changes in coccosphere size in terms of laboratory observations is hard, mainly because the marine signal reflects the response of multiple morphotypes to changes in a combination of environmental variables. In this paper I examine the large corpus of published laboratory experiments with coccolithophores looking for relations between environmental conditions, metabolic rates and cell size (a proxy for coccosphere size). I show that growth, photosynthesis, and to a lesser extent calcification, co-vary with cell size when pCO2, irradiance, temperature, nitrate, phosphate and iron conditions change. With the exception of phosphate and temperature, a change from limiting to non-limiting conditions always results in an increase in cell size. An increase in phosphate or temperature produces the op15 posite effect. The magnitude of the coccosphere size changes observed in the laboratory is comparable to that observed in the ocean. If the biological reasons behind the environment-metabolism-size link are understood, it will be possible to use coccosphere size changes in the modern ocean and in marine sediments to investigate the fate of coccolithophores in the future ocean. This reasoning can be extended to the size of coccoliths if, as recent experiments are starting to show, coccolith size reacts to environmental change proportionally to coccosphere size. I introduce a simple model that simulates the growth rate and the size of cells forced by nitrate and phosphate concentrations. By considering a simple rule that allocates the energy flow from nutrient acquisition to cell structure (biomass) and cell maturity (biological complexity, eventually leading to cell division), the model is able to reproduce the co-variation of growth rate and cell size observed in the laboratory when these nutrients become limiting. These results support ongoing efforts to interpret coccosphere and coccolith size measurements in the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management and climate change on the Copper–Pine creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the Net Sector Productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates above and below-ground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account in when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator – Net Sector Productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We applied a coupled, marine water column model to three sites in the North Sea. The three sites represent different hydrodynamic regimes and are thus representative of a wider area. The model consists of a hydro-biogeochemical model (GOTM-ERSEM-BFM) coupled one way upwards to a size-structured model representing pelagic predators and detritivores (Blanchard et al., 2009). Thus, bottom-up pressures like changing abiotic environment (climate change, chemical cycling) impact on fish biomass across the size spectrum. Here, we studied three different impacts of future conditions on fish yield: climatic impacts (medium emission scenario), abiotic ocean acidification impacts (reduced pelagic nitrification) and biotic ocean acidification impacts (reduced detritivore growth rate). The three impacts were studied separately and combined, and showed that sites within different hydrodynamic regimes responded very differently. The seasonally stratified site showed an increase in fish yields (occuring in winter and spring), with acidification effects of the same order of magnitude as climatic effects. The permanently mixed site also showed an increase in fish yield (increase in summer, decrease in winter), due to climatic effects moderated by acidification impacts. The third site, which is characterised by large interannual variability in thermal stratification duration, showed a decline in fish yields (occuring in winter) due to decline of the benthic system which forms an important carbon pathway at this site. All sites displayed a shift towards a more pelagic oriented system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic and invasive plant in Europe. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hayfever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007; Burbach et al., 2009). To simulate production and dispersion of common ragweed pollen, we implement a pollen emission and transport module in the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) version 4 using the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5. In the online model environment where climate is integrated with dispersion and vegetation production, pollen emissions are calculated based on the modelling of plant distribution, pollen production, species-specific phenology, flowering probability, and flux response to meteorological conditions. A pollen tracer model is used to describe pollen advective transport, turbulent mixing, dry and wet deposition. The model is then applied and evaluated on a European domain for the period 2000-2010. To reduce the large uncertainties notably due to ragweed density distribution on pollen emission, a calibration based on airborne pollen observations is used. Resulting simulations show that the model captures the gross features of the pollen concentrations found in Europe, and reproduce reasonably both the spatial and temporal patterns of flowering season and associated pollen concentrations measured over Europe. The model can explain 68.6, 39.2, and 34.3 % of the observed variance in starting, central, and ending dates of the pollen season with associated root mean square error (RMSE) equal to 4.7, 3.9, and 7.0 days, respectively. The correlation between simulated and observed daily concentrations time series reaches 0.69. Statistical scores show that the model performs better over the central Europe source region where pollen loads are larger. From these simulations health risks associated common ragweed pollen spread are then evaluated through calculation of exposure time above health-relevant threshold levels. The total risk area with concentration above 5 grains m-3 takes up 29.5 % of domain. The longest exposure time occurs on Pannonian Plain, where the number of days per year with the daily concentration above 20 grains m-3 exceeds 30. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The DEEP site sediment sequence obtained during the ICDP SCOPSCO project at Lake Ohrid was dated using tephrostratigraphic information, cyclostratigraphy, and orbital tuning through marine isotope record. Although this approach is suitable for the generation of a general chronological framework of the long succession, it is insufficient to resolve more detailed paleoclimatological questions, such as leads and lags of climate events between marine and terrestrial records or between different regions. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of different tie points can affect cyclostratigraphy and orbital tuning for the period between ca. 140 and 70 ka and how the results can be correlated with directly/indirectly radiometrically-dated Mediterranean marine and continental proxy records. The alternative age model obtained shows consistent differences with that proposed by Francke et al. (2015) for the same interval, in particular at the level of the MIS6-5e transition. According to this age model, different proxies from the DEEP site sediment record support an increase of temperatures between glacial to interglacial conditions, which is almost synchronous with a rapid increase in sea surface temperature observed in the western Mediterranean. The results show how important a detailed study of independent chronological tie points is for synchronizing different records and to highlight asynchronisms of climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new generation of an Earth System Model now includes a number of land surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective--specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources--for four different scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), being used for next assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Over the 21st Century, simulated changes in global and continential-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st Century ranges from 2°C in the lowest scenario to 5.5°in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st Century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, probably as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annual average CO2 difference between baseline data from Mauna Loa and the southern Hemisphere increased by ~ 0.8 µmolmol-1 (0.8 ppm) between 2009 and 2010, a step unprecedented in over 50 years of reliable data. We find no evidence for coinciding, sufficiently large and rapid, source/sink changes. A statistical anomaly is unlikely due to the highly systematic nature of the variation in observations. An explanation for the step, and the subsequent 5 year stability in this north-south difference, involves inter-hemispheric atmospheric exchange variation. The selected data describing this episode provide a critical test for studies that employ atmospheric transport models that interpret global carbon budgets and inform management of anthropogenic emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mussel shells are potential bioarchives of proxies for changes of the physico-chemical conditions in the bivalve's habitat. One such proxy is the distribution of the Rare Earths and Yttrium (REY) in seawater, as REY speciation in seawater is sensitive to pH and temperature variations, due to the impact of these parameters on the activity of CO32 in seawater. We present a new protocol for sample preparation and determination of REY concentrations in bivalve shells, that includes sample treatment with NaOCl followed by REY separation and preconcentration. The data obtained was further used to calculate REY partition coefficients between shells of M. edulis and ambient seawater, and acquired results were then used in the investigation of the potential effects of pH and temperature on REY partitioning. Shells of M. edulis mussels from the North Sea show consistent shale-normalized ("SN") REY patterns that increase from the light REY to the middle REY and decrease from the middle REY to the heavy REY. Despite being different to the general seawater REYSN pattern, the shells still display distinct REY features of seawater such as a negative CeSN anomaly and small positive YSN and GdSN anomalies. Apparent partition coefficients for the REY between the shell and seawater (appDREYshell/seawater) are low and decrease strongly from the light REY (4.04 for La) to the heavy REY (0.34 for Lu). However, assuming that only the free REY3+ are incorporated into the shell, appDREY3+shell/seawater values are higher and rather similar for all REY (102.46 for La; 113.44 for Lu), but show a slight maximum at Tb (199.18). Although the impact of vital effects i.e. REY speciation in a mussel's extrapallial fluid from which the carbonate minerals precipitate, cannot be quantified yet, it appears that M. edulis shells are bioarchives of some REY features of seawater. We modelled the REYSN patterns of a hypothetical mussel shell at pH 8.2 and 7.6 and at temperatures of 25 and 5 °C assuming that only REY3+ are incorporated into the carbonate's crystal lattice. The results suggest that with lower pH, REY concentrations in a shells increase, but with little effect on the shape of the REYSN patterns, while a temperature change has an impact on the REYSN pattern, but only minor effects on REY concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural wetlands are among the most important sources of methane; thus, these areas are important for better understanding long-term temporal variations in atmospheric methane concentration. During the last 60 years, wetlands have experienced extensive conversion and global impacts from climate warming, which makes the estimation of methane emission from wetlands highly uncertain. In this paper, we present a modeling framework, integrating CH4MODWETLAND, TOPMODEL and TEM models, to analyze the temporal and spatial variations in CH4 emissions from natural wetlands (including inland wetlands, coastal wetlands, lakes and rivers) in China. Our analysis revealed an increase of 25.5 %, averaging 0.52g m-2 per decade, in national CH4 fluxes from 1950 to 2010, which was mainly induced by climate warming. Higher rates of increasing CH4 fluxes occurred in northeastern, northern and northwestern China, associated with large temperature increases. However, decreases in precipitation due to climate warming o_set the increase in CH4 fluxes in these regions. The CH4 fluxes from the wetland on the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau exhibited a lower rate of increase, which was approximately 25% of that simulated in northeastern China. Although climate warming has accelerated CH4 fluxes, the total amount of national CH4 emissions decreased by approximately 2.35 Tg (1.91-2.81 Tg), i.e., from 4.50 Tg in the early 1950s to 2.15 Tg in the late 2000s, due to a large wetland loss of 17.0 million ha. Of this reduction, 0.26 Tg 0.24-0.28 Tg) was derived from lakes and rivers, 0.16 Tg (0.13-0.20 Tg) from coastal wetlands, and 1.92 Tg (1.54-2.33 Tg) from inland wetlands. Northeastern China had the largest contribution to this reduction, with a loss of 1.68 Tg. The CH4 emissions were reduced by more than half in most regions in China except for the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, where only a 23.3% decrease in CH4 was observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates three different metrics of vegetation water content estimated from proximal sensing and MODIS satellite imagery: Fuel Moisture Content (FMC), Equivalent Water Thickness (EWT) and Canopy Water Content (CWC). Dry matter (Dm) and Leaf area Index (LAI) were also analyzed in order to connect FMC with EWT and EWT with CWC, respectively. This research took place in a Fluxnet site located in Mediterranean wooded grassland (dehesa) ecosystem in Las Majadas del Tietar (Spain). Results indicated that FMC and EWT showed lower spatial variation than CWC. The spatial variation within the MODIS pixel was not as critical as its temporal trend, so to capture better the variability, fewer plots should be sampled but more times. Due to the high seasonal Dm variability, a constant annual value would not work to predict EWT from FMC. Relative root mean square error (RRMSE) evaluated the performance of nine spectral indices to compute each variable. VARI provided the worst results in all cases. For proximal sensing, GEMI worked best for both FMC (RRMSE = 34.5 %) and EWT (RRMSE = 27.43 %) while NDII and GVMI performed best for CWC (RRMSE = 30.27% and 31.58% respectively). For MODIS data, results were a bit better with EVI as the best predictor for FMC (RRMSE = 33.81 %) and CWC (RRMSE = 27.56 %) and GEMI for EWT (RRMSE = 24.6 %). To explain these differences, proximal sensing measures only grasslands at nadir view angle, but MODIS includes also trees, their shades, and other artifacts at up to 20_ view angle. CWC was better predicted than the other two water content variables, probably because CWC depends on LAI, which is highly correlated to the spectral indices. Finally, these empirical methods outperformed FMC and CWC products based on radiative transfer model inversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most future projections forecast significant and ongoing climate change during the 21st century, but with the severity of impacts dependent on efforts to restrain or reorganise human activity to limit carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A major sink for atmospheric CO2, and a key source of biological resources, the World Ocean is widely anticipated to undergo profound physical and -- via ocean acidification -- chemical changes as direct and indirect results of these emissions. Given strong biophysical coupling, the marine biota is also expected to experience strong changes in response to this anthropogenic forcing. Here we examine the large-scale response of ocean biogeochemistry to climate and acidification impacts during the 21st century for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 using an intermediate complexity global ecosystem model, Medusa--2.0. The primary impact of future change lies in stratification-led declines in the availability of key nutrients in surface waters, which in turn leads to a global decrease (1990s vs. 2090s) in ocean productivity (-6.3%). This impact has knock-on consequences for the abundances of the low trophic level biogeochemical actors modelled by Medusa--2.0 (-5.8%), and these would be expected to similarly impact higher trophic level elements such as fisheries. Related impacts are found in the flux of organic material to seafloor communities (-40.7% at 1000m), and in the volume of ocean suboxic zones (+12.5%). A sensitivity analysis removing an acidification feedback on calcification finds that change in this process significantly impacts benthic communities, suggesting that a better understanding of the OA-sensitivity of calcifying organisms, and their role in ballasting sinking organic carbon, may significantly improve forecasting of these ecosystems. For all processes, there is geographical variability in change, and changes are much more pronounced under RCP 8.5 than the RCP 2.6 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based upon seven field surveys conducted between May 2011 and January 2012, we investigated pH, carbonate saturation state of aragonite (Ωarag), and ancillary parameters on the Chinese side of the North Yellow Sea, a western North Pacific continental margin of major economic importance. Subsurface waters were nearly in equilibrium with air in May and June. From July to October, the fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) of bottom water gradually increased to 697±103 µatm and pH decreased to 7.83±0.07 due to respiration/remineralization processes of primary production induced biogenic particles. In November and January, bottom water fCO2 decreased and pH gradually returned to an air-equilibrated level due to cooling enhanced vertical mixing. The corresponding bottom water Ωarag was 1.74±0.17 (May), 1.77±0.26 (June), 1.70±0.26 (July), 1.72±0.33 (August), 1.32±0.31 (October), 1.50±0.28 (November), and 1.41±0.12 (January). Critically low Ωarag values of 1.0 to 1.2 were mainly observed in subsurface waters in a salinity range of 31.5-32.5 psu in October and November, accounting for ~10% of the North Yellow Sea area. Water mass derived from the adjacent Bohai Sea had a typical water salinity of 30.5-31.5 psu, and bottom water Ωarag values ranged mostly between 1.6 and 2.4. This study showed that the carbonate system in the North Yellow Sea was substantially influenced by global atmospheric CO2 increase. The community respiration/remineralization rates in typical North Yellow Sea bottom water mass were estimated at 0.55-1.0 µmol O2 kg-1 d-1 in warm seasons, leading to seasonal drops in subsurface pH and Ωarag. Outflow of the Bohai Sea water mass counteracted the subsurface Ωarag reduction in the North Yellow Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the complexity of quantitative collection, knowledge of the distribution of microplastic pollution in many regions of the world ocean is patchy, both spatially and temporally, especially for the subsurface environment. However, with knowledge of typical hydrodynamic behavior of waste plastic material, models predicting the dispersal of pelagic and benthic plastics from land sources into the ocean are possible. Here we investigate three aspects of plastic distribution and transport in European waters. Firstly, we assess patterns in the distribution of plastics found in fluvial strandlines of the North Sea and how distribution may be related to flow velocities and distance from source. Second, we model transport of non-buoyant preproduction pellets in the Nazaré Canyon of Portugal using the MOHID system after assessing the density, settling velocity, critical and depositional shear stress characteristics of such waste plastics. Thirdly, we investigate the effect of surface turbulences and high pressures on a range of marine plastic debris categories (various densities, degradation states and shapes tested) in an experimental water column simulator tank and pressure laboratory. Plastics deposited on North Sea strandlines varied greatly spatially, as a function of material composition and distance from source. Model outputs indicated that such dense production pellets are likely transported up and down canyon as a function of tidal forces, with only very minor net down canyon movement. Behaviour of plastic fragments under turbulence varied greatly, with the dimensions of the material, as well as density, playing major determining roles. Pressure was shown to affect hydrodynamic behaviours of only low density foam plastics at pressures ≥60 bar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cap de Creus Canyon (CCC) is known as a preferential conduit for particulate matter leaving the Gulf of Lion continental shelf towards the slope and the deep basin, particularly in winter when storms and dense shelf water cascading coalesce to enhance the seaward export of shelf waters. During the CASCADE (CAscading, Storm, Convection, Advection and Downwelling Events) cruise in March 2011, deployments of recording instruments within the canyon and vertical profiling of the water column properties were conducted to study with high spatial-temporal resolution the impact of such processes on particulate matter fluxes. In the context of a mild and wet 2010-2011 winter, no remarkable dense shelf water formation was observed. On the other hand, the experimental setup allowed to study the impact of E-SE storms on the hydrographical structure and the particulate matter fluxes in the CCC. The most remarkable feature in terms of sediment transport was a period of dominant E-SE winds from 12 to 16 March, including two moderate storms of significant wave heights=4-4.5m. During this period, a plume of freshened, relatively cold and turbid water flowed at high speeds along the southern flank of CCC in an approximate depth range of 150-350m. The density of this water mass only reached ~28.78 kgm-3, indicating that it did not cascade into the canyon and that merely down-welled into it forced by the accumulation of seawater along the coast during the storms and by the subsequent strong cyclonic circulation induced over the shelf. Suspended sediment load in this turbid intrusion was comparable at three heights above bottom where turbidimeters were installed (10, 75 and 115m above bottom) on the southern canyon flank and oscillated between 10 and 50mg L-1. Current speeds were also comparable in the depth range profiled by ADCPs (40 to 150mab) and reached values up to 90 cm s-1 during the peak of the strongest storm (13 March, Hs = 4.5m). Sediment transport at 75mab on the southern canyon flank was estimated at 1-1.5 t m-2 for the entire deployment while very close to the bottom (5m above) in the canyon head it was less than 0.6 t m-2 during the same period. We provide a rough estimation of 105 t of sediment transported through the canyon along its southern wall during a 3 day-long period of storm-induced downwelling. Following the veering of the wind direction (from SE to NW) on 16 March, down-welling ceased, currents inside the canyon reversed from down to up-canyon, and the turbid shelf plume was evacuated from the canyon, most probably flowing along the southern canyon flank and being entrained by the general SW circulation after leaving the canyon confinement. This study highlights that remarkable sediment transport occurs in the CCC, and particularly along its southern flank, even during mild and wet winters, in absence of cascading and under limited external forcing. The sediment transport associated to eastern storms like the ones described in this paper tends to enter the canyon by its downstream flank, partially affecting the canyon head region. Sediment transport during these events is not constrained near the seafloor but distributed in a depth range of 200-300m above the bottom. Our paper broadens the understanding of the complex set of atmosphere-driven sediment transport processes acting in this highly dynamic area of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Samoylov Island is centrally located within the Lena River Delta at 72° N, 126° E and lies within the Siberian zone of continuous permafrost. The landscape on Samoylov Island consists mainly of late Holocene river terraces with polygonal tundra, ponds and lakes, and an active floodplain. The island has been the focus of numerous multidisciplinary studies since 1993, which have focused on climate, land cover, ecology, hydrology, permafrost, and limnology. This paper aims to provide a framework for future studies by describing the characteristics of the island's meteorological parameters (temperature, radiation, and snow cover), soil temperature, and soil moisture. The land surface characteristics have been described using high resolution aerial images in combination with data from ground-based observations. Of note is that deeper permafrost temperatures have increased between 0.5 to 1 °C over the last five years. However, no clear warming of air and active layer temperatures is detected since 1998, though winter air temperatures during recent years have not been as cold as in earlier years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean deoxygenation due to climate change may alter redox-sensitive nutrient cycles in the marine environment. The productive eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) upwelling region may be particularly affected when the relatively moderate oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) deoxygenates further and microbially-driven nitrogen (N) loss processes are promoted. Consequently, water masses with a low N : P ratio could reach the euphotic layer, possibly influencing primary production in those waters. Previous mesocosm studies in the oligotrophic Atlantic Ocean identified N availability as controlling of primary production, while a possible co-limitation of nitrate and phosphate (P) could not be ruled out. To better understand the impact of changing N : P ratios on primary production and on N2 fixation in the ETNA surface ocean, we conducted land-based mesocosm experiments with natural plankton communities and applied a broad range of N : P ratios (2.67-48). Silicate was supplied at 15 µmol L-1 in all mesocosms. We monitored nutrient drawdown, bloom formation, biomass build up and diazotrophic feedback in response to variable nutrient stoichiometry. Our results confirmed N to be limiting to primary production. We found that excess P was channeled through particulate organic matter (POP) into the dissolved organic matter (DOP) pool. In mesocosms with low P availability, DOP was utilized while N2 fixation increased, suggesting a link between those two processes. Interestingly this observation was most pronounced in mesocosms where inorganic N was still available, indicating that bioavailable N does not necessarily has to have a negative impact on N2 fixation. We observed a shift from a mixed cyanobacterial/proteobacterial dominated active diazotrophic community towards diazotrophic diatom symbionts of the Richelia-Rhizosolenia symbiosis. We hypothesize that a potential change in nutrient stoichiometry in the ETNA might lead to a general shift within the diazotrophic community, potentially modifying primary productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As Arctic regions warm, the large organic carbon pool stored in permafrost becomes increasingly vulnerable to thaw and decomposition. The transfer of newly mobilized carbon to the atmosphere and its potential influence upon climate change will largely depend on the reactivity and subsequent fate of carbon delivered to aquatic ecosystems. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a key regulator of aquatic metabolism and its biodegradability will determine the extent and rate of carbon release from aquatic ecosystems to the atmosphere. Knowledge of the mechanistic controls on DOC biodegradability is however currently poor due to a scarcity of long-term data sets, limited spatial coverage of available data, and methodological diversity. Here, we performed parallel biodegradable DOC (BDOC) experiments at six Arctic sites (16 experiments) using a standardized incubation protocol to examine the effect of methodological differences used as common practice in the literature. We further synthesized results from 14 aquatic and soil leachate BDOC studies from across the circum-arctic permafrost region to examine pan-Arctic trends in BDOC. An increasing extent of permafrost across the landscape resulted in higher BDOC losses in both soil and aquatic systems. We hypothesize that the unique composition of permafrost-derived DOC combined with limited prior microbial processing due to low soil temperature and relatively shorter flow path lengths and transport times, resulted in higher overall terrestrial and freshwater BDOC loss. Additionally, we found that the fraction of BDOC decreased moving down the fluvial network in continuous permafrost regions, i.e. from streams to large rivers, suggesting that highly biodegradable DOC is lost in headwater streams. We also observed a seasonal (January-December) decrease in BDOC losses in large streams and rivers, but no apparent change in smaller streams and soil leachates. We attribute this seasonal change to a combination of factors including shifts in carbon source, changing DOC residence time related to increasing thaw-depth, increasing water temperatures later in the summer, as well as decreasing hydrologic connectivity between soils and surface water as the seasons progress. Our results suggest that future, climate warming-induced shifts of continuous permafrost into discontinuous permafrost regions could affect the degradation potential of thaw-released DOC as well as its variability throughout the Arctic summer. We lastly present a recommended standardized BDOC protocol to facilitate the comparison of future work and improve our knowledge of processing and transport of DOC in a changing Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen (N) cycle has the potential to regulate climate change through its influence on carbon (C) sequestration. Although extensive researches have been done to explore whether or not progressive N limitation (PNL) occurs under CO2 enrichment, a comprehensive assessment of the processes that regulate PNL is still lacking. Here, we quantitatively synthesized the responses of all major processes and pools in terrestrial N cycle with meta-analysis of CO2 experimental data available in the literature. The results showed that CO2 enrichment significantly increased N sequestration in plant and litter pools but not in soil pool. Thus, the basis of PNL occurrence partially exists. However, CO2 enrichment also significantly increased the N influx via biological N fixation, but decreased the N efflux via leaching. In addition, no general diminished CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth over time was observed. Overall, our analyses suggest that the extra N supply by the increased biological N fixation and decreased leaching may potentially alleviate PNL under elevated CO2 conditions. Moreover, our synthesis showed that CO2 enrichment increased soil ammonium (NH4+) but decreased nitrate (NO3-). The different responses of NH4+ and NO3-, and the consequent biological processes, may result in changes in soil microenvironment, community structures and above-belowground interactions, which could potentially affect the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and the feedback to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Locust swarms had periodically raged in both North American Plains (NAP) and East Asian Plains (EAP) before 1880 AD. After this period, the locust outbreaks almost never recurred in NAP but have continued to occur in EAP. Since large quantities of pesticides were used in the major agriculture regions of NAP in the late 1870s; this has been suggested as a possible major cause of the disappearing of locust outbreaks. Extensive applications of more effective chemical pesticides were also used in the granary regions of EAP in the 1950s in an effort to kill the pests at a much higher intensity. However, locust swarms came back again in many areas of China in the 1960s. Therefore, NAP locust extinction still remains a puzzle. Frequent locust outbreaks in EAP over the past 130 yr may offer clues to probe key control elements in the disappearing of locust outbreaks in NAP. This paper analyzes the climate extremes and monthly temperature-precipitation combines of NAP and EAP, and found the differences in their frequencies of these climate combines caused different locust fates in the two regions: restrained the locust outbreak in NAP but induced such events in EAP. Validation shows that severer EAP locust outbreak years were coincided with the climate extreme combines years. Thus we suggest that climate changes in frequency, extremes and trends can explain why the fate of the locust plague in EAP was different from that in NAP. The study also points out that, under the present global warming, cautions should be taken to make sure the pest hazard being nipped in the-bud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex dynamic models of carbon and nitrogen are often used to investigate the consequences of climate change on agricultural production and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. These models require high temporal resolution input data regarding the timing of field operations. This paper describes the Timelines model, which predicts the timelines of key field operations across Europe. The evaluation of the model suggests that it is broadly capable of simulating the timing of field operations for a range of arable crops at different locations. Systematic variations in the date of harvesting and in the timing of the first application of N fertiliser to winter crops need to be corrected and the prediction of soil workability and traffcability might enable the prediction of ploughing and applications of solid manure in preparation for spring crops. The data concerning the thermal time thresholds for sowing and harvesting underlying the model should be updated and extended to a wider range of crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past two decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure and evaluate performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land models. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated; (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance; (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies; and (4) model improvement. Component 4 may or may not be involved in a benchmark analysis but is an ultimate goal of general modeling research. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and the land-surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics across timescales in response to both weather and climate change. Benchmarks that are used to evaluate models generally consist of direct observations, data-model products, and data-derived patterns and relationships. Metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data-model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance for future improvement. Iterations between model evaluation and improvement via benchmarking shall demonstrate progress of land modeling and help establish confidence in land models for their predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decades, dendroclimatologists have relied upon linear transfer functions to reconstruct historical climate. Transfer functions need to be calibrated using recent data from periods where CO2 concentrations reached unprecedented levels (near 400 ppm). Based on these transfer functions, dendroclimatologists must then reconstruct a different past, a past where CO2 concentrations were much below 300 ppm. However, relying upon transfer functions calibrated in this way may introduce an unanticipated bias in the reconstruction of past climate, particularly if CO2 levels have had a noticeable fertilizing effect since the beginning of the industrial era. As an alternative to the transfer function approach, we run the MAIDENiso ecophysiological model in an inverse mode to link together climatic variables, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and tree growth parameters. Our approach endeavors to find the optimal combination of meteorological conditions that best simulate observed tree ring patterns. We test our approach in the Fontainebleau forest (France). By comparing two different CO2 scenarios, we present evidence that increasing CO2 concentrations have had a slight, yet significant, effect on reconstruction results. We demonstrate that higher CO2 concentrations augment the efficiency of water use by trees, therefore favoring the reconstruction of a warmer and drier climate. Under elevated CO2 concentrations, trees close their stomata and need less water to produce the same amount of wood. Inverse process-based modeling represents a powerful alternative to the transfer function technique, especially for the study of divergent tree-ring-to-climate relationships. The approach has several advantages, most notably its ability to distinguish between climatic effects and CO2 imprints on tree growth. Therefore our method produces reconstructions that are less biased by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and that are based on sound ecophysiological knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the picoplankton community's response to changes in oceanographic conditions in the period between October 2011 and September 2012 at two stations belonging to South Adriatic Pit (SAP). The recorded data include the community's abundance, composition, prokaryotic production rates and bacterial metabolic capacity. The aforementioned interval included an intense sea cooling with formation of exceptionally, record-breaking dense water. We documented an especially intense winter convection episode that completely diluted the core of Levantine intermediate waters (LIW) in a large area encompassing the SAP's center and its margin. During this convection event the whole picoplankton community had significantly higher abundances with a recorded picoeukaryotic peak at the SAP margin. In the post-convection phase in March prokaryotic heterotrophic production strongly increased in the entire SAP area (up to 50 times; 456.8nMCday-1). The autotrophic biomass increase (up to 5 times; 4.86 μg L-1) and a disruption of a close correspondence between prokaryotic heterotrophic biomass production and cell replication rates were observed only in the center of the SAP, which was not under the influence of LIW. At the SAP's margin such an effect was attenuated by LIW, since the waters affected by LIW were characterized by decreased concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen, decreased autotrophic biomasses and by increased bacterial biomass production balanced with cell replication rates as well as by the domination of Synechococcus among autotrophic picoplankton. Metabolic capacity was the lowest in spring when autotrophic biomass largely increased, while the highest levels found in the pre-convection phase (October 2011) suggests that the system was more oligotrophic before than after the convection event. Furthermore, we showed that metabolic capacity is a trait of bacterial community independent of environmental conditions and tightly linked to cell replication and substrate availability. On the other hand the bacterial community composition appears to be strongly influenced by physico-chemical characteristics of waters (e.g. temperature and nutrients) and environmental forcing (e.g. convection and LIW). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bay of Bengal has been traditionally known for its low primary productivity and varied reasons were attributed to it. The data analysis from the sediment traps deployed in the northern Bay of Bengal during the 5 yr from 1994 show episodic events of enhanced downward biogenic flux every year which was not related to monsoon-driven seasonal cycle. Satellite-derived sea level anomaly suggests that the episodic increase in the biogenic flux was associated with the presence of cyclonic eddies in the sediment trap location. Cyclonic eddy-induced down ward biogenic flux in the sediment trap location was larger than the amplitude, ~ 40mg m-2 d-1, of the seasonal cycle. The magnitude of the peak episodic fluxes were one-and-half to two-and-half times the annual mean flux, while the anomaly of peak episodic fluxes was at least equal to or greater than the magnitude of the seasonal flux value. Cyclonic eddies responsible for high biogenic flux during 1994 and 1996 were formed in the northern Bay of Bengal during February--March of respective years due to the interaction of northward flowing western boundary current and coastally trapped Kelvin wave. In contrast, cyclonic eddies during 1997 and 1998 were formed from the breaking of westward propagating Rossby waves. The sediment trap data provided the observational evidence that eddy-induced biological productivity is an important mechanism in the Bay of Bengal that contributes significantly to the mid-depth biogenic flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal seas represent one of the most valuable and vulnerable habitats on Earth. Understanding biological productivity in these dynamic regions is vital to understanding how they may influence and be affected by climate change. A key metric to this end is net community production (NCP), the net effect of autotrophy and hetrotrophy, however accurate estimation of NCP has proved to be a difficult task. Presented here is a thorough exploration and sensitivity analysis of an oxygen mass-balance based NCP estimation technique applied to the Warp Anchorage monitoring station which is a permanently well mixed shallow area within the Thames river plume. We have developed an open source software package for calculating NCP estimates and air-sea gas flux. Our study site is identified as a region of net heteotrophy with strong seasonal variability. The annual cumulative net community oxygen production is calculated as (-5 ± 2.5) mol m-2 a-1. Short term daily variability in oxygen is demonstrated to make accurate individual daily estimates challenging. The effects of bubble induced supersaturation is shown to have a large influence on cumulative annual estimates, and is the source of much uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The in situ primary production rates and various environmental variables were investigated in the Chukchi Sea during the 3rd RUSALCA expedition, which was conducted in 2012, to identify the current status of primary production. A 13C-15N dual tracer technique was used to measure the daily primary production rates, which ranged from 0.02 to 1.61 gCm-2 d-1 (mean ± SD= 0.42 ± 0.52 gCm-2 d-1). The primary production rates showed large regional differences, with the southern region (0.66 ± 0.62 gCm-2 d-1) producing approximately five times as much as the northern region (0.14 ± 0.10 gCm-2 d-1), which was primarily due to the differences in phytoplankton biomasses induced by regional nutrient conditions. The primary production rates in the Chukchi Sea were averaged using data acquired during the three different RUSALCA expeditions (2004, 2009, and 2012) as 0.33 gCm-2 d-1 (SD= 0.40 gCm-2 d-1), which was significantly lower than previously reported rates. In addition to strong seasonal and interannual variations in primary production, recent decreases in the concentrations of major inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll a could be among the reasons for the recent low primary production in the Chukchi Sea because the primary production is mainly affected by nutrient concentration and phytoplankton biomass. The nutrient inventory and primary production appear to be largely influenced by the freshwater content (FWC) variability in the region due to the significant relationships between FWC, nitrate concentrations (r = 0.54, p < 0.05) and primary production rates (r = 0.56, p < 0.05). Moreover, we found highly significant relationships between the nutrient levels and the primary production rates (r = 0.75, p < 0.001). In conclusion, the primary production in the Chukchi Sea is primarily controlled by nutrient availability which is strongly related to the FWC variability. Our results imply that the predicted increase in freshwater accumulation might cause a decrease in primary production by lowering the nutrient inventory in the euphotic zone of the Chukchi Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes induced by stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica have been recognized as an important consequence of the recently observed Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Here we present evidences that the Brazilian coast (Southwestern Atlantic) may have been impacted from both winds and sea surface temperature changes derived from this process. Skeleton analysis of massive coral species living in shallow waters off Brazil are very sensitive to air-sea interactions, and seem to record this impact. Growth rates of Brazilian corals show a trend reversal that fits the ozone depletion evolution, confirming that ozone impacts are far reaching and potentially affect coastal ecosystems in tropical environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts on the marine biogeochemistry and lower trophic level dynamics in the North Sea and Baltic Sea have been assessed using regional downscaling in a number of recent studies. However, most of these where only forced by physical conditions from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and regional downscaling considering the climate change impact on oceanic nutrient conditions from Global Earth System Models (ESMs) are rare and so far solely based on CMIP3-generation climate models. The few studies published show a large range in projected future primary production and hydrodynamic condition. With the addition of CMIP5 models and scenarios, the demand to explore the uncertainty in regional climate change projections increased. Moreover, the question arises how projections based on CMIP5-generation models compare to earlier projections and multi-model ensembles comprising both AR4 and AR5 generation forcing models. Here, we investigated the potential future climate change impacts to the North Sea and the Baltic Sea ecosystem using a coherent regional downscaling strategy based on the regional coupled bio-physical model ECOSMO. ECOSMO was forced by output from different ESMs from both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Multi-model ensembles using CMIP3/A1B and CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios are examined, where the selected CMIP5 models are the successors of the chosen CMIP3 models. Comparing projected changes with the present day reference condition, all these simulations predicted an increase in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both North Sea and Baltic Sea, reduction in sea ice in the Baltic, decrease in primary production in the North Sea and an increase in primary production in the Baltic Sea. Despite these largely consistent results on the direction of the projected changes, our results revealed a broad range in the amplitude of projected climate change impacts. Our study strengthens the claim that the choice of the ESM is a major factor for regional climate projections. The change in oceanic nutrient input appeared to be the major driver for the projected changes in North Sea primary production. Assessing the spread in ensemble groups, we found that there is for the North Sea a significant reduction in the spread of projected changes among CMIP5 forced model simulations compared to those forced by CMIP3 ESMs, except for salinity. The latter was due to an unexpected salinification observed in one of the CMIP5 model while all other models exhibit freshening in the future. However, for the Baltic Sea substantial differences in inter-model variability in projected climate change impact to primary production is lacking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Karst systems are important for drinking water supply. Future climate projections indicate increasing temperature and a higher frequency of strong weather events. Both will influence the availability and quality of water provided from karst regions. Forest disturbances such as windthrow can disrupt ecosystem cycles and cause pronounced nutrient losses from the ecosystems. In this study, we consider the time period before and after the wind disturbance period (2007/08) to identify impacts on DIN (dissolvedinorganic nitrogen) and DOC (dissolved organic carbon) with a process-based flow and solute transport simulation model. Calibrated and validated before the disturbance the model disregards the forest disturbance and its consequences on DIN and DOC production and leaching. It can therefore be used as a base-line for the undisturbed system and as a tool for the quantification of additional nutrient production. Our results indicate that the forest disturbance by windthrow results in a significant increase of DIN production lasting 3.7 years and exceeding the pre-disturbance average by 2.7 kg ha-1 a-1 corresponding to an increase of 53%. There were no significant changes of DOC concentrations. With simulated transit time distributions we show that the impact on DIN travels through the hydrological system within some months. But a small fraction of the system outflow (< 5%) exceeds mean transit times of > 1 year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite under-saturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 17 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. Our results also show large-scale under-saturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 486 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean independent of emission scenario. Our results suggest that accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The flux of carbon dioxide from the soil to the atmosphere (soil respiration) is one of the major fluxes in the global carbon cycle. At present, the accumulated field observation data cover a wide range of geographical locations and climate conditions. However, there are still large uncertainties in the magnitude and spatiotemporal variation of global soil respiration. Using a global soil respiration dataset, we developed a climate-driven model of soil respiration by modifying and updating Raich's model, and the global spatiotemporal distribution of soil respiration was examined using this model. The model was applied at a spatial resolution of 0.5° and a monthly time step. Soil respiration was divided into the heterotrophic and autotrophic components of respiration using an empirical model. The estimated mean annual global soil respiration was 91 Pg C yr-1 (between 1965 and 2012; Monte Carlo 95% confidence interval: 87-95 Pg C yr-1) and increased at the rate of 0.09 Pg C yr-2. The contribution of soil respiration from boreal regions to the total increase in global soil respiration was on the same order of magnitude as that of tropical and temperate regions, despite a lower absolute magnitude of soil respiration in boreal regions. The estimated annual global heterotrophic respiration and global autotrophic respiration were 51 and 40 Pg C yr-1, respectively. The global soil respiration responded to the increase in air temperature at the rate of 3.3 Pg C yr-1 °C-1, and Q10 = 1.4. Our study scaled up observed soil respiration values from field measurements to estimate global soil respiration and provide a data-oriented estimate of global soil respiration. Our results, including the modeled spatiotemporal distribution of global soil respiration, are based on a semi-empirical model parameterized with over one thousand data points. We expect that these spatiotemporal estimates will provide a benchmark for future studies and also help to constrain process-oriented models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of climate changes, identifying and then predicting the impacts of climatic drivers on tropical forest dynamics is becoming a matter of urgency.We used a coupled model of tropical tree growth and mortality, calibrated with forest dynamic data from the 20 year study site of Paracou, French Guiana, in order to introduce and test a set of climatic variables. Three major climatic drivers were identified through the variable selection procedure: drought, water saturation and temperature. Drought decreased annual growth and mortality rates, high precipitation increased mortality rates and high temperature decreased growth. Interactions between key functional traits, stature and climatic variables were investigated, showing best resistance to drought for trees with high wood density and for trees with small current diameters. Our results highlighted strong long-term impacts of climate variables on tropical forest dynamics, suggesting potential deep impacts of climate changes during the next century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic drivers limit several important physiological processes involved in ecosystem carbon dynamics including gross primary productivity (GPP) and carbon allocation in vegetation. Climatic variability limits these two processes differently. We developed an existing mechanistic model to analyse photosynthesis and variability in carbon allocation in two evergreen species at two Mediterranean forests. The model was calibrated using a combination of eddy covariance CO2 flux data, dendrochronological time series of secondary growth and forest inventory data. The model was modified to be climate explicit in the key processes addressing acclimation of photosynthesis and allocation. It succeeded to fit both the high- and the low-frequency response of stand GPP and carbon allocation to the stem. This would support its capability to address both carbon source and sink limitations. Simulations suggest a decrease in mean stomatal conductance in response to environmental changes and an increase in mean annual intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in both species during the last 50 years. However, this was not translated on a parallel increase in ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE). A long-term decrease in annual GPP matched the local trend in precipitation since the 1970s observed in one site. In contrast, GPP did not show a negative trend and the trees buffered the climatic variability observed at the site where long-term precipitation remained stable. In our simulations these temporal changes would be partly related to increasing [CO2] because the model includes biochemical equations where photosynthesis is directly linked to [CO2]. Long-term trends in GPP did not match those in growth, in agreement with the C-sink hypothesis. There is a great potential to use the model with abundant dendrochronological data and analyse forest performance under climate change. This would help to understand how different interfering environmental factors produce instability in the climatic signal expressed in tree-rings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands in discontinuous permafrost regions occur as a mosaic of wetland types, each with variable sensitivity to climate change. Permafrost thaw further increases the spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and function in peatlands. Carbon (C) fluxes are well characterized in end-member thaw stages such as fully intact or fully thawed permafrost but remain unconstrained for transitional stages that cover a significant area of thawing peatlands. Furthermore, changes in the environmental correlates of C fluxes, due to thaw are not well described: a requirement for modeling future changes to C storage of permafrost peatlands. We investigated C fluxes and their correlates in end-member and a number of transitional thaw stages in a sub-arctic peatland. Across peatland lumped CH4 and CO2 flux data had significant correlations with expected correlates such as water table depth, thaw depth, temperature, photosynthetically active radiation and vascular green area. Within individual thaw states, bivariate correlations as well as multiple regressions between C flux and environmental factors changed variably with increasing thaw. The variability in directions and magnitudes of correlates reflects the range of structural conditions that could be present along a thaw gradient. These structural changes correspond to changes in C flux controls, such as temperature and moisture, and their interactions. Temperature sensitivity of CH4 increased with increasing thaw in bivariate analyses, but lack of this trend in multiple regression analyses suggested cofounding effects of substrate or water limitation on the apparent temperature sensitivity. Our results emphasize the importance of incorporating transitional stages of thaw in landscape level C budgets and highlight that end-member or adjacent thaw stages do not adequately describe the variability in structure-function relationships present along a thaw gradient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydroacoustic data document the occurrence of 5 flare clusters and several single flares from which bubbles rise through the entire water column from an active seep site at 40 m water depth in the central North Sea. We investigated the difference in dissolved methane distributions along a 6 km transect crossing this seep site during a period of seasonal summer stratification (July 2013) and a period of well mixed winter water column (January 2014). Dissolved methane accumulated below the seasonal thermocline in summer with a median concentration of 390 nM, whereas during winter, methane concentrations were much lower (median concentration of nM) and punctually elevated due to bubble transport. High resolution methane analysis by an underwater mass-spectrometer confirmed our summer results and were used to document prevailing stratification over the tidal cycle. Although sufficient methane was available, microbial methane oxidation was limited during both seasons. Measured and averaged rate constants (k') using Michaelis Menten kinetics were on the order of 0.01 days-1, equivalent to a turnover time of 100 days. Time series measurements indicated an uptake of only 5-6% of the gas after 4 days, and no known methanotrophs and pmoA-genes were detected. Estimated methane fluxes indicate that horizontal eddy transport rapidly disperses dissolved methane, vertical transport becomes dominant during phases of high wind speeds, and relative to these processes, microbial methane oxidation appears to be comparably low. To bridge the discrete field data we developed a 1-D seasonal model using available yearlong records of wind speed, surface temperature and thermocline depth. The model simulations show a peak release of methane at the beginning of fall when the water column becomes mixed. Consistent with our field data, inclusion of microbial methane oxidation does not change the model results significantly, thus microbial oxidation appears to be not sufficient to notably reduce methane during summer stratification before the peak release in fall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends and seasonality analysis since 1980 and longitudinal distribution from headwaters to estuary of algal pigment, nitrate and phosphate were investigated in the eutrophic Loire River. The continuous decline of phosphate concentrations recorded since 1991 both in the main river and in the tributaries led to a significant reduction in algal biomass across the whole river system. While eutrophication remained lower in the main tributaries than in the Loire itself, they were found to contribute up to 45 % to the total nutrient load of the main river. The seasonality analysis revealed that the river has always been under P limitation, explaining why reducing P inputs led to decreasing eutrophication in the whole Loire basin. The decline of seasonal amplitudes of algal pigments reduced the seasonal amplitude of phosphate and of daily variations of dissolved oxygen and pH but did not significantly affect the seasonal amplitude of nitrate. Thus, algal uptake responsibility on the summer nitrate loss seemed to be declining, questioning the exact role played by denitrification, terrestrial vegetation and fixed aquatic vegetation on the nitrogen cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern Scotia Sea contains the largest seasonal uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide yet measured in the Southern Ocean. This study examines one of the main routes by which this carbon fluxes to the deep ocean, through the production of faecal pellets (FPs) by the zooplankton community. Deep sediment traps were deployed in two sites with contrasting ocean productivity regimes (P3, naturally iron-fertilized and P2, iron-limited), within the same water mass. The magnitude and seasonal pattern of particulate organic carbon (POC) and FPs in the traps was markedly different between the two sites. Maximum fluxes at P3 (22.91mgCm-2 d-1; 2534x10 FPm-2 d-1 ) were an order of magnitude higher than at P2 (4.01mgCm-2 d-1 ; 915x10 FPm-2 d-1), with flux at P3 exhibiting a double seasonal peak, compared to a single flatter peak at P2. The maximum contribution of FP carbon to the total amount of POC was twice as high at P3 (91%) compared to P2 (40%). The dominant FP category at P3 varied between round, ovoidal, cylindrical and tabular over the course of the year while, at P2, ovoidal FPs were consistently dominant, always making up more than 60% of the FP assemblage. There was also a difference in the FP state between the two sites, with FPs being relatively intact at P3, while FPs were often fragmented with broken peritrophic membranes at P2. The exception was ovoidal FPs, which were relatively intact at both sites. Our observations suggest that there was community shift from an herbivorous to an omnivorous diet from spring through to autumn at P3 while detritivores had a higher relative importance over the year at P2. Furthermore, the flux was mainly a product of the vertically migrating zooplankton community at P3 while the FP flux was more likely to be generated by deeper-dwelling zooplankton feeding on recycled material at P2. The results demonstrate that the feeding behavior and vertical distribution of the zooplankton community plays a critical role in controlling the magnitude of carbon export to the deep ocean in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treelines differentiate vastly contrasting ecosystems: open tundra from closed forest. Treeline advance has implications for the climate system due to the impact of the transition from tundra to forest ecosystem on carbon (C) storage and albedo. Treeline advance has been seen to increase above-ground C stocks as low vegetation is replaced with trees, but decrease organic soil C stocks as old carbon is decomposed. However, studies comparing across the treeline typically do not account for elevational variation within the ecotone. Here we sample ecosystem C stocks along an elevational gradient (970 to 1300m), incorporating a large-scale and long-term livestock grazing experiment, in the Southern Norwegian mountains. We investigate whether there are continuous or discontinuous changes in C storage across the treeline ecotone, and whether these are modulated by grazing. We find that vegetation C stock decreases with elevation, with a clear breakpoint between the forest line and treeline above which the vegetation C stock is constant. In contrast, C stocks in organic surface horizons of the soil increase linearly with elevation within the study's elevational range, whereas C stocks in mineral soil horizons are unrelated to elevation. Total ecosystem C stocks also showed a discontinuous elevational pattern, increasing with elevation above the treeline (8 gm-2 m-1 increase in elevation), but decreasing with elevation below the forest line (-15 gm-2 m-1 increase in elevation), such that ecosystem C storage reaches a minimum between the forest line and treeline. We did not find any effect of short-term (12 years) grazing on the elevational patterns. Our findings demonstrate that patterns of C storage across the treeline are complex, and should be taken account of when estimating ecosystem C storage with shifting treelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While radiocarbon (14C) abundance in standing stocks of soil carbon has been used to evaluate rates of soil carbon turnover on timescales of several years to centuries, soil-respired 14CO2 measurements are an important tool for identifying more immediate responses to disturbance and climate change. Soil 14CO2 data are often temporally sparse, however, and could be interpreted better with more context for typical seasonal ranges and trends. We report on a semi-high-frequency sampling campaign to distinguish physical and biological drivers of soil 14CO2 at a temperate forest site in Northern Wisconsin, USA. We sampled 14CO2 profiles every three weeks during snow-free months through 2012, in three intact plots and one trenched plot that excluded roots. Respired 14CO2 declined through the summer in intact plots, shifting from an older C composition that contained more bomb 14C, to a younger composition more closely resembling present 14C levels in the atmosphere. In the trenched plot respired 14C was variable but remained comparatively higher than in intact plots, reflecting older bomb- enriched 14C sources. Although respired 14CO2 from intact plots correlated with soil moisture, related analyses did not support a clear cause-and-effect relationship with moisture. The initial decrease in 14CO2 from spring to midsummer could be explained by increases in 14C-deplete root respiration; however, 14CO2 continued to decline in late summer after root activity decreased. We also investigated whether soil moisture impacted vertical partitioning of CO2 production, but found this had little effect on respired 14CO2 because CO2 contained modern bomb-C at depth, even in the trenched plot. This surprising result contrasted with decades to centuries-old pre-bomb CO2 produced in lab incubations of the same soils. Our results suggest that root-derived C and other recent C sources had dominant impacts on 14CO2 in situ, even at depth. We propose that 14CO2 may have declined through late summer in intact plots because of continued microbial turnover of root-derived C, following declines in root respiration. Our results agree with other studies showing large seasonal fluctuations in respired Δ14CO2, and suggest root C inputs are an important driver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely recognized that the variation of average surface chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) in the South China Sea (SCS) is closely related to wind forcing, especially during the intense winter monsoon. In this study we demonstrate that, after removal of the seasonal cycles, the variation of Chl showed strong asymmetric responses to wind speed under El Ni ñ;o or La Ni ña conditions. The analysis was based on a time-series of Chl in the study area (115-117 °E, 17-19 °N) around the SEATS (South-East Asian Timeseries Study) station located in the central northern SCS from September 1997 to the end of 2011, which was constructed by merging the SeaWiFS data (1997-2006) and MODIS data (2003-2011). The merged daily data were validated by shipboard observations at the SEATS station. The non-seasonal variations of monthly mean Chl, wind speed, sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) were examined against the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The analysis reveals strongly asymmetric correlations of Chl and SST with positive MEI (El Ni ño) or negative MEI (La Ni ña). Under El Ni ño conditions, both showed significant correlations with MEI or wind speed; under La Niña conditions, both showed weak or insignificant correlations. The contrast was more pronounced for Chl than for SST. The subdued responses of Chl to wind forcing under La Ni ña conditions were probably attributed to a deepened thermocline, for which wind driven nutrient pumping is less efficient. A deeper thermocline, which was observed during the 1999-000 La Ni ña event and inferred by positive SSH anomalies during other La Ni ña events, was probably caused by reduced SCS throughflow under La Ni ña conditions. Intrusion of the nutrient-depleted Kuroshio water in the surface layer as observed during the 1999-2000 La Ni ña could be partially responsible for the suppressed Chl response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fate of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in lakes and streams is significantly affected by photochemical transformation of DOM. A series of laboratory photochemical experiments was conducted to describe long-term changes in photochemical properties of DOM. The stream samples used in this study originated from three different catchments on the southern-most part of the Boreal ecozone near Dorset, Ontario, Canada. A first-order kinetics equation was used to model photochemical degradation of DOM and the kinetic rate constant, K, was used as an indicator of photochemical properties of DOM. Highest K was observed in samples from the catchment dominated by coniferous forest while the lowest K was measured in the deciduous catchment. Kinetic rate constants from all three catchments showed a sinusoidal pattern during the hydrological year. K increased steadily during autumn and winter and decreased during spring and summer. The highest values were observed during spring melt events when DOM was flushed from terrestrial sources by high flows. The minimum rate constants were found in summer when discharge was lowest. DOM molecular weight and specific absorbance at 254nm also exhibited annual cycles corresponding to the seasonal cycles of terrestrial organic matter but the relationships between these properties and K was probably affected by previous exposure to solar radiation during transit from the catchment as well as pH and iron. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to detect shifts in community structure and function associated with global change, the natural background fluctuation in these traits must be known. In a 6-yr study we quantified year to year variability of taxonomic and functional composition of benthic hard bottom communities in the Western Baltic. While taxonomic fluctuations were substantial, functionality of the communities seems preserved in most cases. Environmental conditions potentially driving these fluctuations are winter temperatures and current regimes. We tentatively define a confidence range of natural variability in productivity, composition and diversity a departure from which might help identifying an ongoing regime shift driven by global change. In addition, we propose a statistical procedure distinguishing directional shifts ("signal") from natural fluctuations ("noise"). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to improve understanding of carbon cycling in the Buor-Khaya Bay (BKB) by studying the inter-annual, seasonal, and meso-scale variability of carbon stocks and related hydrological and biogeochemical parameters in the water, as well as factors controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. Here we present data sets obtained on summer cruises and winter expeditions during 12 yr of investigation. Based on data analysis, we suggest that in the heterotrophic BKB area, coastal erosion and river discharge serve as predominant drivers of the organic carbon (OC) cycle, determining OC input and transformation, dynamics of nutrients, carbon stocks in the water column, and atmospheric emissions of CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phytoplankton and bacteria are sensitive indicators of environmental change. The temporal development of these key organisms was monitored from 1988 to the end of 2007 at the time series station Boknis Eck in the Western Baltic Sea. This period was characterized by the adaption of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changes in the environmental conditions caused by the collapse and conversion of the political system in the Southern and Eastern Border States, accompanied by the general effects of global climate change. Measured variables were chlorophyll, primary production, bacteria number, -biomass and -production, glucose turnover rate, macro-nutrients, pH, temperature and salinity. Negative trends with time were recorded for chlorophyll, the bacterial variables, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, silicate, oxygen and salinity while temperature, pH, and the ratio between bacteria numbers and chlorophyll increased. The strongest reductions with time occurred for the annual maximum values, e.g. for chlorophyll during the spring bloom or for nitrate during winter, while the annual minimum values remained more stable. In deep water above sediment the negative trends of oxygen, nitrate, phosphate and bacterial variables as well as the positive trend of temperature were similar to those in the surface while the trends of salinity, ammonia and silicate were opposite to those in the surface. Decreasing oxygen even in the surface layer was of particular interest because it suggested enhanced recycling of nutrients from the deep hypoxic zones to the surface by vertical mixing. In the long run all variables correlated positively with temperature, except chlorophyll and salinity. Salinity correlated negatively with all bacterial variables as well as precipitation and positively with chlorophyll. Surprisingly, bacterial variables did not correlate with chlorophyll which may be inherent with the time lag between the peaks of phytoplankton and bacteria during spring. Compared to the 20-yr averages of the environmental and microbial variables, the strongest negative deviations of corresponding annual averages were measured about ten years after political change for nitrate and bacterial secondary production (~ -60%), followed by chlorophyll (-50%) and bacterial biomass (-40%). Considering the circulation of surface currents in the Baltic Sea we conclude that the improved management of water resources after 1989 together with the trends of the climate variables salinity and temperature were responsible for the observed patterns of the microbial variables at the Boknis Eck time series station. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Black Sea north-western shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which seasonal stratification of the water column isolates bottom waters from the atmosphere and prevents ventilation to compensate for the large consumption of oxygen, due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments. A 3-D coupled physical biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS at different temporal scales from seasonal to interannual (1981-2009) and to differentiate the driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication) of hypoxic conditions in bottom waters. Model skills are evaluated by comparison with 14 500 in-situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean Database and the Black Sea Commission data. The choice of skill metrics and data subselections orientate the validation procedure towards specific aspects of the oxygen dynamics, and prove the model's ability to resolve the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of oxygen concentration as well as the spatial location of the oxygen depleted waters and the specific threshold of hypoxia. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS, receiving large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniestr and Dniepr rivers, and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian Bay of Constanta. In order to explain the interannual variability of bottom hypoxia and to disentangle its drivers, a statistical model (multiple linear regression) is proposed using the long time series of model results as input variables. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate related variables. The use of four predictors allows to reproduce 78% of hypoxia interannual variability: the annual nitrate discharge (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (T ), the amount of semi-labile organic matter in the sediments (C) and the duration of the stratification (D). Eutrophication (N,C) and climate (T ,D) predictors explain a similar amount of variability (~35%) when considered separately. A typical timescale of 9.3 yr is found to describe the inertia of sediments in the recovering process after eutrophication. From this analysis, we find that under standard conditions (i.e. average atmospheric conditions, sediments in equilibrium with river discharges), the intensity of hypoxia can be linked to the level of nitrate discharge through a non-linear equation (power law). Bottom hypoxia does not affect the whole Black Sea NWS but rather exhibits an important spatial variability. This heterogeneous distribution, in addition to the seasonal fluctuations, complicates the monitoring of bottom hypoxia leading to contradictory conclusions when the interpretation is done from different sets of data. We find that it was the case after 1995 when the recovery process was overestimated due to the use of observations concentrated in areas and months not typically affected by hypoxia. This stresses the urging need of a dedicated monitoring effort in the NWS of the Black Sea focused on the areas and the period of the year concerned by recurrent hypoxic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a Simple Diagnostic Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (SDPRM) that has been developed based on pre-existing formulations. The photosynthesis model is based on the light use efficiency logic, suggested by Monteith (1977), for calculating the Gross Primary Production (GPP) while the ecosystem respiration (Reco) model is based on the formulations introduced by Lloyd and Taylor (1994) and modified by Reichstein et al. (2003). SDPRM is driven by satellite-derived fAPAR (fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) and climate data from NCEP/NCAR. The model estimates 3-hourly values of GPP for seven major biomes and daily Reco. The motivation is to provide a-priori fields of surface CO2 fluxes with fine temporal and spatial scales, and their derivatives with respect to adjustable model parameters, for atmospheric CO2 inversions. The estimated fluxes from SDPRM showed that the model is capable of producing flux estimates consistent with the ones inferred from atmospheric CO2 inversion or simulated from process-based models. In this Technical Note, different analyses were carried out to test the sensitivity of the estimated fluxes of GPP and Reco to their driving forces. The spatial patterns of the climatic controls (temperature, precipitation, water) on the interannual variability of GPP are consistent with previous studies even though SDPRM has a very simple structure and few adjustable parameters, and hence it is much easier to modify than more sophisticated process-based models used in these previous studies. According to SDPRM, the results show that temperature is a limiting factor for the interannual variability of Reco over the cold boreal forest, while precipitation is the main limiting factor of Reco over the tropics and the southern hemisphere, consistent with previous regional studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Ocean (AO) undergoes profound changes of its physical and biotic environments due to climate change. The greater light exposure and stratification alter its plankton ecosystem structure, functioning and productivity promoting oligotrophy in some areas as the Beaufort Sea. A one-dimension (1-D) physical-biological coupled model based on the large multiparametric database of the Malina project in the Beaufort Sea was used (i) to infer the functioning and nitrogen fluxes within the summer plankton ecosystem and (ii) to assess the model sensitivity to key light-associated processes involved in nutrient recycling and phytoplankton growth. The coupled model suggested that ammonium photochemically produced from photosensitive dissolved organic nitrogen (i.e. photoammonification process) was a necessary nitrogen source to achieve the observed levels of microbial biomass and production. It contributed to ca. two-thirds and one-third of the simulated surface (0-10 m) and depth-integrated primary and bacterial production, respectively. The model also suggested that carbon to chlorophyll ratios for small (<5 µm) phytoplankton (ca. 15-45 gg-1) lower than those commonly used in biogeochemical models applied to the AO were required to simulate the observed herbivorous versus microbial food web competition and realistic nitrogen fluxes in the Beaufort Sea oligotrophic waters. In face of accelerating Arctic warming, more attention should be paid in the future to the mechanistic processes involved in food webs and functional groups competition, nutrient recycling and primary production in poorly productive waters of the AO as they are expected to expand rapidly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial respiration depends on microclimatic variables and carbon (C) substrate availability, all of which are altered when ecosystems experience major disturbance. Widespread tree mortality, currently affecting piñon-juniper ecosystems in Southwestern North America, may affect C substrate availability in several ways; for example, via litterfall pulses and loss of root exudation. To determine piñnon mortality effects on C and water limitation of microbial respiration, we applied field amendments (sucrose and water) to two piñnon-juniper sites in central New Mexico, USA: one with a recent (<1 yr), experimentally-induced mortality event and a nearby site with live canopy. We monitored the respiration response to water and sucrose applications to the litter surface and to the underlying mineral soil surface, testing the following hypotheses: (1) soil respiration in a piñnon-juniper woodland is water- and labile C-limited in both the litter layer and mineral soil; (2) water and sucrose applications increase temperature sensitivity of respiration; (3) the mortality-affected site will show a reduction in C limitation in the litter; (4) the mortality-affected site will show an enhancement of C limitation in the mineral soil. Litter respiration at both sites responded to increased water availability, yet surprisingly, mineral soil respiration was not limited by water. Temperature sensitivity was enhanced by some of the sucrose and water treatments. Consistent with hypothesis 3, C limitation of litter respiration was lower at the recent mortality site compared to the intact canopy site. Results following applications to the mineral soil 20 suggest the presence of abiotic effects of increasing water availability, precluding our ability to measure labile C limitation in soil. Widespread piñon mortality may decrease labile C limitation of litter respiration, at least during the first growing season following mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]